A Political Profile of Taiwan s Youth:

Transcription

1 A Political Profile of Taiwan s Youth: Democratic Support, Natural independence, and Commitment to Defense Szu-chien Hsu President Taiwan Foundation for Democracy 04/03/2018 Global Taiwan Institute, Washington DC

2 Three Concerns This analysis uses recent survey data to address three major concerns regarding recent Taiwan s democratic development and pay special attention to young people s political attitudes: Democratic support Preference on future cross Strait relations Commitment to defense 1

3 Some Images of Taiwanese Youth The youth in the West are less committed to democratic values, how about the youth in Taiwan? Naturally pro independence Strawberries: weak commitment to selfdefense Are Taiwanese youth irresponsibly provocative while not committed in democracy? 2

4 Dataset Since 2011, Taiwan Foundation for Democracy has commissioned a series of surveys to academic survey institutes (such as Election Study Center at National Chengchi University) in order to understand Taiwanese attitudes toward democratic and social inequality issues. Except the most recent wave, all data have been released to the public. The most recent wave oversampled those ages under 39 so that we can easily compare two age cohorts: Under 39 sample size: 825 (51.7%) (population 38%) Over 40 sample size: 747 (46.8%) (population 62%) 3

5 Democratic Support 4

6 Democratic System Support (by Age) 10 8 % Agreed with "There exist some problems in democracy, but it is still the best political system" 75.9% 78.7% 73.0% 77.7% 86.4% 86.2% All 5

7 Democratic Satisfaction (by age) 10 % Satisfied with the current situation of democracy in Taiwan % 47.9% 27.1% 34.2% 35.8% 40.2% All 6

8 Democratic Optimism (by age) 10 % optimistic about Taiwan s democratic development in the future (in 10 years) % 57.8% 37.0% 54.0% 47.1% 41.1% All 7

9 A Comparison with Foa and Mounk (2016) * The question in U.S. and Europe is: Having a democratic political system is a bad or very bad way to run this country The question in Taiwan is: Do you feel good or bad if we have a authoritarian regime in our country. And the trend of Taiwan is the proportion of answering Good (20 24 in Taiwan) Tend to Support Authoritarian Regime Taiwan, 2018 Europe, United States, 2011 * Foa & Mounk (2016), Democratic Disconnect, JoD, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp

10 Attitudes toward Democracy in Taiwan Unlike in the West, support for democratic political system is always high Even growing higher among youngsters Low support for the authoritarian alternative Relatively low democratic satisfaction and democratic optimism Yet, young people still have relatively high degree of satisfaction and optimism than their elder counterparts. 9

11 Future Cross Strait Relations 10

12 Traditional 6 category measurement of people s attitude toward X strait relations By the Center for Electoral Studies, National Chengchi University 11

13 Unification, SQ, and Independence (by age)* % 59.3% % 20.1% 14.7% 10.4% 5.9% 0.6% Unification Status Quo Independence None Res

14 Naturally Independent Generation? (20 29 vs )* Unification/SQ/Independence % 65.8% 59.3% % 20.1% 21.7% 14.7% 12.5% 7.5% 5.9% 1.4% Unification Status Quo Independence None Res

15 Alternative measurement of attitude toward independence / unification Nai te Wu (2005), Bread and Love: A Preliminary Exploration of Taiwanese National Identity, Taiwan Journal of Political Science, 9, 2, The two sides should be unified if China becomes a democratic country Taiwan should claim independent if such claim would not result in a war. 14

16 Unification if China Democratizes (by age)* The two sides of the Strait should be unified if mainland China becomes a democratic country. 73.3% 43.8% 43.9% 24.4% 2.3% 12.3% Disagree Agree None Res

17 Independence without Cost (by age)* 10 Taiwan should claim independence if such claim would not result in a war % 53.7% 46.2% 36.4% 2 9.9% 2.9% Disagree Agree None Res

18 Wu s Classification 17

19 Naturally Independent Generation? Wu s Classification % % 33.8% 35.0% % 22.8% % 14.1% 14.4% 12.9% 10.1% 9.6% 3.5% 4.0% 17.3% Taiwanese Nationalism Pragmatism Chinese Nationalism Status Quo None Res

20 Attitude toward Cross strait relations Taiwanese youth under 40, like the older age cohort, are predominantly pro status quo. Taiwanese youth under 40 are significantly less pro unification than the older cohort. With Nai te Wu s classification, the Taiwanese youth under 40 : have significantly stronger Taiwan nationalism have significantly weaker China nationalism are significantly pro status quo However, the cohort under 30 are significantly more pro status quo than the cohort of

21 Commitment of Self defense 20

22 If Taiwan and mainland China go to war, what would you do? (Niou 2017) % % 23.2% 1 6.2% 1.8% 10.6% 3.2% 21

23 If Taiwan and mainland China go to war, what would you do? (by age) % 42.6% 6.5% 6.3% 2.5% 1.6% 26.9% 24.0% 22.2% 13.4% 11.7% 1 2.0% 3.9%

24 Conditional Self defense Determination (if Taiwan Independence) Would you fight for Taiwan if Taiwan formally announce independence that causes the mainland China to use force against Taiwan? 10 Then how do you think most people in Taiwan would do? % 56.7% % 43.0% 2 7.4% % No Yes None Res. No Yes None Res. 23

25 Conditional Self defense Determination (if unification by China s Coercion) Would you fight for Taiwan if the mainland China uses force against Taiwan for unification? 10 Then how do you think most people in Taiwan would do? % % % % 2 6.3% % No Yes None Res. No Yes None Res. 24

26 Willingness to Fight (by age)* Would you fight for Taiwan if Taiwan formally announce independence that causes the mainland China to use force against Taiwan? % 39.2% 63.4% 49.9% 10.8% 4.0% No Yes None Res Would you fight for Taiwan if the mainland China uses force against Taiwan for unification? % 24.9% 70.3% 66.1% 9.0% 3.2% No Yes None Res

27 Fight for Independence (by age & democratic support) % 54.1% % % 36.3% 36.7% 36.2% 2 9.6% 1 3.6% 3.3% High Democratic Support No Yes None Res. Low Democratic Support 26

28 Fight for China s Coercion (by age & by democratic support) Democratic Support by Age by Defense 71.6% 72.2% 64.4% 48.5% 43.1% 31.1% 25.7% 20.8% 2.6% 7.1% 4.4% 8.5% High Democratic Support No Yes None Res. Low Democratic Support 27

29 Attitude toward Self Defense Determination Almost 70% of the respondent are willing to fight if China uses force to coerce unification. There is no difference between the old and young in being willing to fight if China use force to coerce unification. Commitment to democratic value helps the commitment to fight against China s threat of coercive unification. 28

30 Conclusion Taiwanese youth are not irresponsible provocative. They have strong commitment to democratic value and self defense. Taiwanese youth have stronger Taiwan nationalism. But the age cohort has stronger tendency to maintain status quo than other age cohort. Among the youth of 20 29, more identify with maintaining status quo than Taiwan nationalism. The essence of natural independence actually is anti unification. In facing China s military threat for coercive unification, around 70% of Taiwanese are committed to fight. Democratic values help Taiwanese people to fight against the threat from China. 29