Managing carbon energy to protect atmosphere, ocean and air quality: CCS Discussion meet+ Royal Society of London

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1 GHG problem CO2 capture and storage Project types + future Policy and payment Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation (ECCI), Infirmary Street, Edinburgh EH1 1LZ Telephone +44 (0) Managing carbon energy to protect atmosphere, ocean and air quality: CCS Discussion meet+ Royal Society of London 6 October 2017 Stuart HASZELDINE University of Edinburgh Professor of Carbon Capture and Storage

2 After CoP21 : EFF, CCS, DAC and BECCS Bio Energy CCS ± coal = niche to recapture carbon. Conflict with replanting, food, and habitat destruction End of Coal End of oil End of gas?? Direct Air Capture needs to be priced properly CCS where? EFFiciency urgent, quickest and easiest NUKE expensive, unsolved waste 2

3 CO2 storage is a long way down Shale top seal no flow 10,000 to 10,000,000 yr security Depth 1-4 km Impermeable SEAL Overlies Porous RESERVOIR 3

4 UK: best CO2 storage CO2 storage 200yr industry 35% of EU storage Gt CO2 Mapped by SCCS 2009 Confirmed by ETI UKSAP and TCE & BGS in NE cluster CO2 storage 2050 Offshore skills & jobs Tees cluster UK owns 35% of EU Pore space OWNED by Crown Estate Scotland CO2 storage Mersey cluster UK offshore has as 35% of UK storage CO2 charge CO2 10 / tonne for CO2 EU = 2 5 Bn/yr revenue yr duration 4

5 Project types Managing energy carbon to protect atmosphere, Royal Society 5 Oct

6 CCS exists : decades of injection & monitoring CO2-EOR 1972, eg Scurry County, Texas, Rangeley, Weyburn. Aquifer Sleipner: CO2 climate mitigation 1996, North Sea 6

7 Carbon Capture Utilisation Storage Life Cycle is all important CO2 needs removed from air and ocean >>1,000 years Tomatoes in greenhouses do NOT count Fizzy drinks do NOT count Trees do NOT count (unless BECCS) CO2 needs to be removed from air and ocean >>1,000 years 7

8 CCS global: mostly Enhanced Oil recovery EOR works,good progress to 2020, then. STOP. Need to plan, Now 8

9 CCS Chennai, India new solvent Carbon Clean Solutions CO 2 + 2RNH 2 [RNHCO 2 + RNH 3+ ] New solvent claims CDRmax, an Amine Promoted Buffer Salt : 25% less capital cost, 7x less corrosive than standard MEA solvent 61% less water, 27% less heat used, longer life 4 yrs Operating October ,000 t CO2 / yr on 10MW coal fuelled power plant Compare $60-90 /tonne CO2 Cost (claim) $30 (40) /tonne CO2 CO2 used to make alkali soda ash Use of soda ash as a temperature-reducing flux during standard glass making reaction Na 2 CO 3 + SiO 2 è Na 2 SiO 3 + CO 2 Thus the potential carbon benefits are ONLY in reduced mining of trona minerals NET CO2 INCREASE 9

10 Game changers? Managing energy carbon to protect atmosphere, Royal Society 5 Oct

11 Full-scale Northern Lights CCS will be done in Norway after 2022 Pipe: Gassnova 1.5 Mt CO2/yr Cement Fertiliser Waste (from UK) Shipping : Gassco Managing energy carbon to protect atmosphere, Royal Society 5 Oct

12 Industry carbon storage: minimum project size 10 Mt/yr CO ,000 Mt CO 2 storage creates new offshore industry for yr. 200M CO2 gas separation units legacy from production Start small, grow network value 1) St Fergus 0.5 Mt CO2/yr And vacant SAGE gas separation 2) Brew and ferment 1.5 MtCO2/ 3) Fife ethylene 0.6Mt, paper 0.4 4) Ineos chemical & refine 1.6, M GBP already spent on evaluation Fastest low cost CO2 storage in Europe 12

13 East coast CCS network 2019 to 2050: BENEFIT analysis 169Bn, not cost 34Bn Employment 100, , , Cost / ton CO2 88 / ton pay to Norway 18 / ton UK CO2 stored 1,500 Mt CO2 100 Mt? Gross Value Added 56 Bn Balance of Payments 5Bn UK 97 Bn by 2050 WITH CCS NO CCS Low cost start Incremental investment CCC path to 75 Mt CO2/yr Uses Treasury cost carbon etc Linked value through economy East Coast CCS Network Managing energy carbon to protect atmosphere, Royal Society 5 Oct

14 Net-Power oxycombustion CO2 gas turbine coal gas CO2 +gas Texas : 50MWth NET Power natural gas demonstration plant 62% Efficient with FREE CO2 Will operate Jan/Feb 2018 Sale of electricity Sale of CO2 for EOR Sale of H2 -refinery Sale of Ar high value gas If this works, it will change everything 14

15 Energy use: focus on heat Heat 15

16 HEAT from CH4 is 47% CO2 emissions Valuable infrastructure, convert to H2 Improving air quality in cities 16

17 80 Scotland (UK) GHG: path to net-zero 2050 Easy actions have been done and banked Millions tonnes CO2 eqiv 50 Scotland 2017: 50% along decarbonisation route. Need to invent and invest in how to do the more difficult part ENERGY TRANSPORT LAND and AGRIC Electricity is on path to decarbonise Most GHG emissions (Blue) are not so directly linked to energy Negative emissions (green) can balance remainder INDUSTRY RESIDENTIAL WASTE Forest life Forestry Mt/yr 2020 Re-Forest + BECCS Peat restore Biochar soil 2045 From: Scottish GHG Emissions 2014 ( CO2-EOR Energy and NET needed to achieve net-zero 17

18 Money and Policy or? 18

19 COST v VALUE Bajaj $2,000 XC 90 $66,000 19

20 CCS is 10x 100x too slow: need price or mandate No more grants Haszeldine et al 2017 Proc Roy Soc A Submitted 20

21 Pay for CCS : EU-ETS too many, too low Past EU-ETS prices erratic NOT investable $ Future EU-Allowances over-supplied EU-ETS prices low, NOT investable 2035 $ EU-ETS is NOT ENOUGH to fund development of CCS Don t allow offsets too cheap. Cancel excess Certificates EU-ETS are permissions to behave as normal by emitting CO2 The low price incentivises Efficiency across economy But is 10x too low, to build something new 21

22 Carbon prices / ton CO2 CCS power need USA tax credits 2017 (proposed) UK Green Deal $200 /t CO2 Car tax UK $300 /t CO2 EU 2025? EU 2015 Cavanagh Ringrose 2014 Energy Procedia GHGT-12 Regional and corporate carbon prices exist, but DO NOT produce behaviour change or action on storage 22

23 Government policy levers to match need UK carbon tax oil production 80% since 1980 = 300 Bn (2009 money) 10 Bn /yr average tax income: not invested Can not trust the Government to re-invest money Mitigation Resource Producer Government Tax: doesn t store carbon Trading emissions certificates: doesn t store carbon Don t use money, use law General, Hospitals, Wars. 23

24 Remedy UK policy: Oxburgh Report 2016 There are three failure to address 1) Expense : create a national CCS company, who develop the first full chain capture-transport-storage infrastructure in each region. Delivery at 85/MWhr. This company is sold to investors when proven liquid operations 2) Wider application: CCS is essential on power, heat, transport 3) A firm market for storage of CO2 is created, by means of a Certificate on all producers of fossil carbon entering the UK. That carries an Obligation to store a national percentage of CO2, starting 1%, rising to 100% mid century 24

25 CERTIFICATES CO2 storage market mandate Start at 0.25% UK carbon 1 Mt /yr, rise to 50-80% by 2050 Environmental certificate ALLOCATED at border fuels and goods. NO MONEY : compete to develop CO2 storage, at low cost Certificate cancelled on PROOF of storage. Flexible and direct Haszeldine 2016 Oxford Rev Economic Policy, 32,

26 EFFECTIVE technology and policy options a) What works Long duration, persistent goals Keeping carbon budgets with a 5 year ratchet. Appetite of business to be profitable: cost and value b) What doesn t work Carbon markets allowing purchase to pollute Price too low to borrow/build/operate projects. Exclusive focus on renewable electricity. Looking at power price, not carbon value c) What needs to be done Create mandate and market for carbon storage Use energy carbon storage to deliver net-zero GHG 26

27 Summary: can energy solve GHG? 1) Protecting the atmosphere and creating clean air against excess CO2 means Naming what is delivered, not the means of delivery Reducing emissions; Balancing to net-zero; Re-capturing emitted CO2 2) The UK has exceptional access to excellent CO2 storage, offshore 3) COST is bad: clean fossil electricity is not possible in UK + EU market pricing 4) VALUE is good: in rapid decarbonisation of heat (H2), industry, transport.. 5) Net Zero requires CO2 storage develop this now? 6) Viable CCS projects sell products (CO2-EOR), or avoid targeted taxes 7) General carbon pricing/ trading does not work Small pilots Low entry commercial costs Re-use existing kit Known processes Incremental network buildout 8) CO2 storage requires a market Certificates - value - jobs rapid - cheap First operational CO2 into the ground before 2022 (NE Scotland + Tees) 200M 27

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