Greenhouse gas inventory in region Yugra of Russia

Transcription

1 Greenhouse gas nventory n regon Yugra of Russa Valery P. Anufrev, Anatoly P. Kulgn, Alexander N. Medvedev, Marna A. Medvedeva, and Alexander P. Sergeev Abstract Some results of greenhouse gas (GHG) nventory are presented for Yugra - the largest ol-and-gas producng regon of Russa. The nventory was carred out on the bass of methodology, recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) for natonal nventores. The maorty of emsson sources n Yugra refer to the sector "Energy". The default emsson factors of IPCC were used for all the sector categores except Fugtve emssons from Ol and Natural Gas actvtes. The regonal emsson factors were calculated for ths category on the actual data of ol-andgas companes. The regonal statstcs was the man data source. The specal attenton was pad to the results consstency, so as the nventory covered the long perod of 20 years ( ). The emsson trends were analyzed to avod the mstakes. Emssons were also matched wth the rates of producton. The estmaton of feasble GHG emssons reducton due to savngs of fuel and energy resources, as well as ncreasng the degree of assocated petroleum gas utlzaton was done. The regonal carbon footprnt structure was determned. Keywords carbon footprnt, emssons reducton, greenhouse gas nventory. T I. INTRODUCTION HE nternatonal greenhouse gas (GHG) management system has been workng n the world about 20 years, n accordance wth the Unted Natons Framework Conventon on Clmate Change (Unted Natons 1992). The system was created for assessng of clmatc changes due to anthropogenc actvty [1], [2], as well as for developng and realzng of adequate mtgaton measures. At present, GHG emssons and removals assessment s conducted not only on natonal level (for example [3], [4], [5]), as the Conventon requres, but on regonal and local levels too. GHG nventory enables local governments to create an emssons baselne, montor progress, assess the relatve contrbutons of emsson sources, and develop a mtgaton V.P. Anufrev s wth the Ural Federal Unversty, Ekaternburg, Russa (emal: mal@ucee.ru). A.P. Kulgn s wth the Ural Federal Unversty, Ekaternburg, Russa (emal: mal@ucee.ru). A.N. Medvedev s wth the Ural Federal Unversty and the Insttute of Industral Ecology UB RAS, Ekaternburg, Russa (e-mal: medvedev@ecko.uran.ru). M.A. Medvedeva s wth the Ural Federal Unversty, Ekaternburg, Russa (e-mal: marmed55@yandex.ru). A.P. Sergeev s wth the Ural Federal Unversty and the Insttute of Industral Ecology UB RAS, Ekaternburg, Russa (phone: ; fax: ; e-mal: alexanderpsergeev@gmal.com). strategy based on ths nformaton [6]. The GHG management s an mportant task for Yugra (or Khanty-Mansysk Autonomous Okrug - KMAO), because ths regon s the man ol-and-gas source n Russa and one of the largest ol-producng world regons. Yugra s a leader n some basc economc ndexes n Russan Federaton: 1-st poston - the ol producton, the electrc power generaton, the ndustral producton volume; 2-nd poston - the gas producton [7]. Yugra has the developed system of ppelnes for transport ol and natural gas from the deposts, ncludng Yamal pennsula. The frst GHG nventory n Yugra was carred out n 2004, and last year a new one was completed, whch ncluded all data on emssons and removals over the perod of Specalzed Informatonal - Analytcal System was created for provdng the automaton, formalzaton and standardzaton of GHG nventory process. The system s descrbed n [8], and t s not consdered here. II. MATERIALS AND METHODS The GHG nventory was carred out accordng to 2006 IPCC Gudelnes for Natonal Greenhouse Gas Inventores [9], adapted to Yugra condtons. The emssons for each category were calculated accordng to (1): Emsson Actvty Data * Emsson Factor (1) The authors have followed to fve GHG nventory prncples: transparency, completeness, consstency, comparablty, and accuracy. All the ntal data and emsson factors used are compled nto separate volume of the nventory report. The specal attenton was pad to the results consstency, so as the nventory covers the long perod of 20 years. The emsson trends were analyzed to avod the mstakes and to acheve consstency. Emssons were also matched wth the rates of producton. The regonal statstcs was the man data source. It was permanently subected to dfferent changes n ts structure durng the nventory perod. In addton, the data were presented n dfferent statstcal reports. So, the specal gudelnes were developed by authors (as a separate document), to assgn the actvty data to certan IPCC category. These gudelnes dentfed the code of annual 115

2 statstcal report, sheets, tables, and calculaton algorthms to consoldate the data. Durng the perod of nventory the new actvty data appeared n statstcs (such as gas transportaton volumes). So, the actvty data were reconstructed down to The actual calorfc values of the fuel were used to convert the actvty data from mass or volume unts to energy unts (TJ). What about the emsson factors for sector 1 - Energy. The default emsson factors for all the categores, except 1B2 - Fugtve emssons from Ol and Natural Gas actvtes, were used (the methodcal approach of ter 1). As ths category nput nto gross emssons was assessed wthn 15% - 25%, the methodcal approaches of ter 2 or 3 were necessary to use, nvolvng some specfc regonal coeffcents and parameters. The emsson factors for ths category depend upon a number of condtons, such as the output gas-ol rato (GOR), composton of assocated petroleum gas (APG), level of ts utlzaton, leakage, flarng, and so on. So the addtonal efforts were done to dentfy the regonal actual emsson factors. The specal request was forwarded to all the vertcally ntegrated ol companes, whch produce ol n the regon. The companes' data covered more than 70% of ol producton snce So they mght be consdered as representatve data. Two emsson factors were calculated n the work: the frst one for APG leakage (all the emssons wthout flarng and utlzaton), and for APG flarng. Emsson factor for APG leakage was calculated accordng to (2) and (3): l CO2 l CH 4 [ CCO * GOR * V * LR ] 2 [ V * LR ] [ CCH * GOR * V * LR ] 4 [ V * LR ] where: - year, - olfeld. C CO2 and C CH4 are the average concentratons of CO 2 and CH 4 at olfeld n the year, GOR s output gas-ol rato at olfeld n the year, V s ol producton rate at olfeld n the year, LR s APG leakage to APG producton rato at olfeld n the year. The calculaton of CO 2 emsson factor for flarng was a lttle bt more complcated. The mean APG composton was assessed for each from olfelds n the year 1. Then the CO 2 emssons (M CO2) were calculated on the assumpton of 100% effcency of APG oxdaton. Calculatons were done for each olfeld and year. Next, the emsson factor was calculated accordng to (4): (2) (3) f CO2 [ M CO * GOR * V * FR ] [ V * FR ] 2 where FR s the APG flarng to APG producton rato. The default and the calculated local emsson factors are gven n Table I. Table. I. Default IPCC and calculated emsson factors (Gg/(10 3 m 3 of ol produced)). IPCC category 1B2a Gas 1B2a СО 2 1B2a СН 4 1B2a 1B2a СО 2 Emsson Factor IPCC Local default Aver. Value standard devaton Gas removal 9,50E-05/ 1,30E-04 2,78E-05 10,41% 7,20E-04/ 9,90E-04 8,54E-04 10,41% Flarng 4,10E-02/ 5,60E-02 5,64E-02 10,26% The comparson shows, that calculated values are wthn the range, ndcated by IPCC, but they have much less uncertanty nterval. III. MAIN OUTCOMES OF GHG INVENTORY Durng the work, the GHG cadastres were prepared for each year of nventory. Emssons from varous greenhouse gases were reduced to Carbon Doxde Equvalent (CO 2 -e), usng global warmng potentals: methane - 23; ntrous oxde - 296; sulfur hexafluorde - 22,200 [10]. The dynamcs of emssons, removals and net emssons (emssons mnus removals) of all GHGs s shown on Fg. 1. GHG emssons n 2008 and 2010 almost reached the level of 1990 (Fg. 1), adopted n the Kyoto Protocol as a base, relatvely to whch the oblgatons of countres were set out. However, the GHG emssons growth, whch took place from 2000, was more than compensated by the GHG absorpton (104.2 Kt CO2-e n 2010). Snce the Kyoto Protocol commtments are set relatvely net emssons, Yugra meets these oblgatons wth a reserve, whch s estmated as Kt CO 2 -e on 2010 (Table II). An average contrbuton of ndvdual GHGs and economy sectors nto total emssons s presented n Table III (contrbutons of HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 are less than 0.01% and they are not shown n the table). (4) 116

3 Accordngly, the resources of assocated petroleum gas decreased, as well as the volumes of ts leaks and flarng. It all leaded to essental reducton of GHG emssons. Overall growth n GHG emssons between 2000 and 2010 was also due to the postve dynamcs of the producton of energy-ntensve products and volumes of works and servces. As t s seen (Fg. 2), growth of the man energy-ntensve products and servces (supply of electrcty, ol, condensate and natural gas, transportaton of gas) vares from 25% to 55%. Fg. 1. The dynamcs of emsson and removals of GHGs n Yugra n Table. II. The volumes of GHG emssons and removals n 2010 n comparson wth base of 1990 (Kt CO 2 -e) / 1990, % Emssons: ,6 Energy Industral Processes and Product Use Agrculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Waste Removals: ,5 Agrculture, Forestry and Other Land Use ,5 Net emssons: ,1% Fg. 2. The dynamcs of growth of the man energy-ntensve products and servces n Yugra n The structure of emssons n sector Energy n 2010 s shown on Fg. 3. The man emsson sources are: the transportaton of natural gas on ppelnes, the producton of electrcty and heat, the burnng of APG n flares, as well as the extracton of crude ol and natural gas. Together, they produce 94.6% of all greenhouse gas emssons n the sector Energy. Table. III. An average contrbuton of ndvdual GHGs and economy sectors nto total emssons. Sector СО 2 CH 4 N 2 O Energy 92,4% 6,8% 0,06% Industral Processes and Product Use Agrculture, Forestry and Other Land Use 0,02% 0,00% 0,00% 0,01% 0,06% 0,03% Waste 0,01% 0,62% 0,03% Total emssons 92,5% 7,4% 0,12% The data show that the sector "Energy" provdes 99.26% of the total emssons, ncludng 92.4% of the carbon doxde emssons. Dynamcs of emssons n tracks the overall economc stuaton n Russa. In partcular, durng the reorganzaton of the economy ( ) the volume of ol and natural gas extracton, as well as thers transportaton and use gradually decreased. Fg. 3. The emssons structure n the sector Energy n IV. EMISSIONS REDUCTION POTENTIAL About 77% of GHG emssons take place durng fuel burnng for energy purposes, and about 20% - fugtve emssons from the actvtes wth ol and natural gas, prmarly from the burnng of APG n flares. Accordngly, the followng drectons of acton to reduce greenhouse gas emssons may be consdered: - Improvng the energy effcency of the economy, ncludng power generaton, ndustry (excludng APG), transport, 117

4 muncpal and publc sector; - Reducng the burnng of APG n flares. Proected savngs of fuel and energy resources on years n accordance wth Energy savng Program of Yugra [11], as well as the correspondng values of emssons reductons are presented n Table. IV. Table. IV. The potental of carbon doxde emsson reducton due to fuel and energy resources savngs n the perod (% of emssons n 2010) Electrc energy 0,36 0,37 0,37 0,35 0,33 1,57 Heat energy 0,10 0,11 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,44 Natural gas 0,20 0,19 0,19 0,16 0,16 0,75 Sum n a year 0,66 0,68 0,66 0,60 0,58 2,76 Sum from 2011* 0,66 1,34 2,00 2,60 3,18 5,95 * Sum wth accumulaton The reducton of carbon doxde emsson was calculated n the program wth the accumulaton, snce the actvtes undertaken n one year contnue to brng savngs of fuel and energy resources n the followng years too. The data of the Department of subsol usng of Yugra about the APG producton and flarng were used for assessng the potental for reducng of CO 2 emssons due to ncreasng the degree of APG utlzaton from the current 86.4% (n 2010) tll the standard 95%. The potental was estmated for the current volume of ol producton, the average gas-ol rato and the weghted average of emsson factor for the perod of nventory, and t amounted 8720 Kt CO2, or 7.07% of emssons volume. Thus, the total planned reducton of greenhouse gas emssons n Yugra s about 13% by V. ROLE OF JOINT IMPLEMENTATION PROJECTS IN GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTION Accordng to nformaton of the operator of carbon unts n Russa, 5 proects of ont mplementaton (JI) were approved n Yugra, and now 5 more smlar proects are on consderaton. Also, there s a potental for regstraton as JI proect for at least another 11 proects. In 2010 the average annual reducton of greenhouse gas emssons on completed proects amounted to about 8500 Kt CO 2 -e, or 6.9% of total emssons. That s, n the absence of energy-savng proects n Yugra, total GHG emssons volume mght exceed the base level of 1990 already n VI. CARBON INTENSITY OF DIFFERENT SECTORS Some annual local statstcal reports nclude an nformaton on the fuel, power and heat consumpton for the producton of specfc energy ntensve products (such as power, heat, ol and gas-condensate) and actvtes (such as natural gas transportaton, natural gas boostng, etc.). Ths nformaton allows assessng the carbon ntensty of the products and works. Such assessment was done wth the use of the equaton (5): CI f *f + p * p + h * h (1) where CI s the carbon ntensty of product or actvty, f, p, and h are the specfc fuel, power and heat consumpton per unt of product or actvty, f, p, h are the emsson factors for the fuel used, power producton (grd factor) and heat producton. The relatve changes n carbon ntensty for dfferent knd of actvtes are shown on the Fg. 4. The year 2003 s taken as a bass. Fg. 4. The carbon ntensty for dfferent actvtes n Yugra n The rase of carbon ntensty of the ol and gas-condensate producton and natural gas boostng mght be explaned by deposts depleton. Reducton of the gas transportaton carbon ntensty takes place due to the substtuton of the out-of-date equpment by effcent modern models. Basng on the results obtaned authors have dentfed at a frst approxmaton the structure of the total carbon footprnt of Yugra. The carbon footprnt s defned n [12] as a measure of the total amount of carbon doxde (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emssons of a defned populaton, system or actvty, consderng all relevant sources, snks and storage wthn the spatal and temporal boundary. To avod the carbon double countng and the dstorton of the whole pcture the carbon emssons due to power and heat producton (except dstrct heatng and power producton for 118

5 export to other regons) are assgned to the end users. The producton of the odd power whch s exported to the neghbor regons and dstrct heatng are consdered as free-standng knds of actvtes. The usage of power and heat for own needs of generatng companes s charged to ther footprnt. The structure of the overall Yugra carbon footprnt s shown on the Fg. 5. Fg. 5. The Yugra carbon footprnt structure n Frst of all one can see, that ths knd of statstcal report provdes more detaled nformaton about the structure of the fuel and energy resources use. Secondly, the structure of carbon footprnt dffers from that of the carbon emssons. Most of the carbon emssons from power producton are assgned now to other sectors, such as ol producton, power export to other regons, etc. The data on carbon ntensty and carbon footprnt structure gve good nformatonal bass for development of the Regonal Low-Carbon Strategy. VII. CONCLUSIONS 1. KMAO - Yugra s one of the man regons of Russa on greenhouse gases emssons. A growth n GHG emssons was observed n Yugra from 2000 to 2010 due to the postve dynamcs of the producton of energy-ntensve products and volumes of works and servces. In 2010 GHG emssons almost reached the level of 1990, adopted n the Kyoto Protocol as a base. However, ths growth was more than compensated by the absorpton of GHG. As a result, net GHG emssons decreased n 2010 compared to Snce the Kyoto Protocol commtments are set relatvely net emssons, Yugra meets these oblgatons wth a reserve, whch s estmated as Kt CO 2 -e on The ont mplementaton proects brought an mportant contrbuton to the GHGs reducton n Yugra. In 2010 the average annual reducton of greenhouse gas emssons on completed proects amounted to about 8500 Kt CO 2 -e, or 6.9% of total emssons. Now 5 smlar proects are on consderaton and at least another 11 proects have a potental for regstraton. 3. Yugra has good prospects for further reducton of GHG emssons. In accordance wth regonal energy savng program, the total reducton of greenhouse gas emssons s planned about 13% by The data on carbon ntensty and carbon footprnt structure of Yugra, obtaned durng the GHG nventory, may be used as an nformatonal bass for development of the Regonal Low-Carbon Strategy. RERENCES [1] Oana Saramet, Anamara Toma-Banov, GHG Emsson Reducton - The Internatonal Response to Clmate Change, Advances n Envronmental and Geologcal Scence and Engneerng, Proceedngs of the 2nd Internatonal Conference on Envronmental and Geologcal Scence and Engneerng (EG '09), Translvana Unversty of Brasov, Romana, September 24-26, 2009, pp [2] Igor Khmelnsk, Peter Stallnga, Clmate Change n the XXIst Century: Mechansms and Predctons, Recent Researches n Energy & Envronment, 6th IASME / WSEAS Internatonal Conference on Energy & Envronment (EE '11), Cambrdge, UK, February 23-25, 2011, pp [3] Akram Avam, Bahare Farahmandpour, Analyss of Envronmental Emssons and Greenhouse Gases n Islamc Republc of Iran, Wseas Transactons on Envronment and Development, Issue 4, Volume 4, pp , Aprl [4] Chatchawan Vongmahadlek, Pham Th Bch Thao, Boonsong Satayopas, Narsara Thongboonchu, An Inventory of Prmary Gaseous Emssons from Thaland wth Spatal and Temporal Allocaton Profle, 3rd IASME / WSEAS Internatonal Conference on Energy & Envronment, Unversty of Cambrdge, UK, February 23-25, 2008, pp [5] Gabrela Teodorescu, Clmate change mpact on urban ecosystems and sustanable development of ctes n Romana, WSEAS Transactons on Envronment and Development, Issue 2, Volume 6, pp , February [6] EPA. (2012, July 30). Developng a Greenhouse Gas Inventory. USA Envronmental Protecton Agency. Avalable: [7] KhMAO. (2012, July 31). General nformaton about the Okrug. Khanty-Mansysk Autonomous Okrug. Avalable: [8] Alexander N. Medvedev, Marna A. Medvedeva, Leond G. Gorbch, Alexander L. Gorbch, Informatonal - Analytcal System for Greenhouse Gas Inventory, Journal of Internatonal Scentfc Publcatons: Ecology & Safety, Vol. 6, part 1, 2012, pp [9] Eggleston H.S., Buenda L., Mwa K., Ngara T. and Tanabe K. (eds), Gudelnes for Natonal Greenhouse Gas Inventores, IPCC Natonal Greenhouse Gas Inventores Programme, IGES, Japan, [10] Informaton on Global Warmng Potentals, Techncal Paper, FCCC/TP/2004/3, Unted Natons, [11] KhMAO. (2012, July 31). Targeted program of Khanty-Mansysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra Energy conservaton and energy effcency n the Khanty-Mansysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra for and up to Khanty-Mansysk Autonomous Okrug. Avalable: [12] Wrght L., Kemp S., Wllams I., Carbon footprntng : towards a unversally accepted defnton, Carbon Management, 2 (1), p ,