Retail Statement Addendum

Transcription

1 GVA James Barr Report 206 St. Vincent Street Glasgow G2 5SG T: +44 (0) F: +44 (0) Retail Statement Addendum 5-9 and Dalmarnock Road, Rutherglen Alberg LLP February 2016 gva.co.uk/scotland

2 Contents Contents 1. Introduction Retail Considerations Conclusions... 7 Appendices Appendix I Retail Assessment Tables Prepared By: Ian Gallacher Date: February 2016 For and on behalf of GVA Grimley Limited February 2016 gva.co.uk/scotland

3 Addendum to Retail Statement 1. Introduction 1.1 This Addendum report has been prepared by GVA James Barr on behalf our client, Alberg LLP, and is submitted in support of an application for Planning Permission in Principle (PPP) to South Lanarkshire Council in relation to the site at 5-9 and Dalmarnock Road, Rutherglen. This statement should be read as an addendum to the Retail Statement (October 2015) previously submitted in support of the above application. 1.2 The description of development of the above application is as follows: Mixed use development comprising Class 1 retail, sui generis hot food takeaways, Class 3 restaurant and Class 11 leisure. 1.3 The above proposals include 25,000sqft/2,323sqm retail floorspace. We would propose however this would comprise a maximum of 25,000sqft/2,323sqm comparison/non-food or a maximum of 10,000sqft/929sqm convenience/food retail gross floorspace, which could be controlled by way of condition to determine an appropriate split of convenience/comparison floorspace. 1.4 This addendum provides a quantitative analysis of the retail proposals of the proposed development identifying there will be no adverse impact on neighbouring protected town centres within the proposals catchment area. 1.5 It should be noted that this assessment has focused on convenience retail floorspace to assess the retail impact of the proposals on the neighbouring protected centres. February 2016 gva.co.uk/scotland 1

4 Addendum to Retail Statement 2. Retail Considerations 2.1 As noted above, this statement has been prepared as an addendum to the Retail Statement that was submitted in support of the PPP application at our client s site. The previous Statement provided a detailed qualitative assessment of the neighbouring Rutherglen town centre identifying a well performing centre. This addendum has considered the quantitative impact of the proposals to ensure the retail proposals have no adverse impact on protected centres within our catchment area. 2.2 From an assessment of SPP policy, and the South Lanarkshire Local Development Plan (2015) Policy 10 New Retail/commercial proposals, a full retail impact assessment is not required for the scale of the proposed development. We have however completed an assessment of the impact of the development on the neighbouring protected centres in convenience retail terms. Based on recent applications within the area, it was considered that a full assessment of comparison floor space was not required due to the limited scale of the proposals, and the substantial capacity for comparison floorspace in the area. 2.3 The following provides our assessment and summary of retail impact of the proposed convenience retail floorspace, with tables located at appendix I to this report. This has been prepared to demonstrate how the proposals would assist to address an existing quantitative deficiency within this part of Rutherglen and South Lanarkshire. The assessment sets out the following:- Existing and projected population and available expenditure; Turnover and trade draw of the development; Retail impact on centre; An interpretation of the significance of impact; A consideration of the retail capacity for the proposed development within the relevant catchment. 2.4 As this application is for planning permission in principle, potential tenants are not yet known for the proposed retail floorspace. Quantitative Deficiency 2.5 To establish the level of quantitative deficiency within the catchment area, the technical retail assessment at appendix I uses the following methodlogy. This follows a transparent step-bystep approach as endorsed by SPP. Definition of a catchment area for a proposed development; February 2016 gva.co.uk/scotland 2

5 Addendum to Retail Statement Identify the population and available expenditure within the catchment area; Calculate the current market shares for established retailers to determine shopping patterns within the area; Factoring any committed floorspace to help provide an assessment of any potential cumulative impacts from development; Introduction of the proposed development based on an estimation of its likely trading profile; and Estimate the likely markets shares, identification of where trade will most likely be diverted and corresponding turnovers of the proposed development with the context of the available expenditure. Key Data Sources 2.6 In the interests of transparency, a summary of key data sources and assumptions used with the retail assessment (appendix I) are provided below: Test year: 2019 this is calculated in view of the time required to secure planning permission and further detailed matters, allow an appropriate time for construction and also allow a year post opening for trading patterns to settle. Price year: 2014 based on Experian s latest data. Population: population data and projections are based on GVA James Barr data sourced from Experian. Expenditure: Experian Retail Planner Report (February 2016) which is specific to the catchment area. This report was commissioned specifically to inform his assessment. Expenditure growth rates between 2016 and 2019 are based on the GVA Expenditure Growth per head convenience (February 2016). This is based on the Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 13 (October 2015). Existing floorspace: these are sourced where possible from the IGD Database (2010), online planning records and GVA estimates informed by various site visits where data is unavailable. Sales densities: sourced from Mintel UK Retail Rankings Trade draw: GVA s judgement has been used based on experience of similar retail proposals and established retail consultancy practice. February 2016 gva.co.uk/scotland 3

6 Addendum to Retail Statement Catchment Area 2.7 The general catchment population for the proposed development is set out in Table 1 in Appendix I. This estimates an increasing population from 23,339 in 2016 to 23,547 in This catchment was generated from a 5-minute drive time at off-peak hours from the proposed development. It was determined that this was an appropriate distance for people to travel considering the limited scale of retail development and potential type of end user. Locally Generated Available Expenditure 2.8 Table 2 calculates the level of expenditure available within the catchment area for both convenience and comparison goods. This is calculated by multiplying the per capita expenditure level by the population at the base and test years. 2.9 In terms of convenience goods expenditure, the focus of this assessment, the total available expenditure within the catchment area is 51.71m in 2016 and 52.48m in We have additionally identified the available comparison good expenditure within the catchment totally at 69.46m in 2016 to 76.58m in Based on the above figures, our professional judgement and recent retail impact study completed in close proximity to our site (Ashfield Land proposals at land at Junction 2 of the M74), which concluded there was significant surplus expenditure in the area, we have not provided a detailed assessment of comparison floorspace. In our view, it is evident that there is significant capacity in the region for comparison floorspace and given the limited scale of the proposed comparison floorspace, we would not expect a detailed assessment of comparison goods to be required The remainder of this assessment has therefore solely considered retail impact on convenience goods. Existing Floorspace and Turnover 2.12 Table 3 identifies the existing and proposed convenience floorspace in the catchment area within including stores within protected centres and other major convenience goods stores within the catchment Table 4 and 5 identify the market shares of trade from the relevant stores within the catchment area for 2016 and 2019 respectively. As can be seen, the majority of turnover from the catchment comes from other stores out with the town centre and more than 11% outflow from the catchment area. The findings from the test year are provided below: February 2016 gva.co.uk/scotland 4

7 Addendum to Retail Statement Location Total Turnover in 2019 from Catchment Area Rutherglen Town Centre Bridgeton Town Centre Other stores outwith town centres Other proposed commitments Outflow from Catchment Area 9.08m 0.74m 34.31m 1.71m 6.65m Turnover of Proposals 2.14 Table 6 introduces the proposed development and its potential turnover. This assumes the proposals attain a potential market share of 8% within the catchment. This is based on a convenience gross floor area of 929sqm (10,000sqft) as outlined in this report As identified above, it is apparent there is a significant level of convenience expenditure leakage from the catchment area. This comprises approximately 6.65m of expenditure available from the catchment area being lost through competition from other locations outwith the area and the internet The development proposals, generating an estimated turnover of 4.83m ( 4.20m from within the catchment area), would assist to retain expenditure within the catchment area while creating linked trips to the neighbouring town centres. Trade Diversion and Impact Considerations 2.17 Table 7 details the likely trade diversions resultant from the proposals. The table below presents a summary of the trade diversions and subsequent impacts of the proposed development: Location Diversion (%) Diversion Impact (%) Rutherglen Town Centre m 3 Bridgeton Town Centre m 3 Other stores outwith town centres m 2 Other proposed commitments m 2 February 2016 gva.co.uk/scotland 5

8 Addendum to Retail Statement 2.18 The diversions modelled based on assumptions of the likely potential tenants of the proposed retail development and GVA James Barr s experience. Given the scale of the proposals and expected potential split between convenience and comparison floorspace, it is expected the majority of turnover of the proposals comes from other stores outwith town centres. Specifically, a significant amount will likely be generated from the adjacent out-of-centre Tesco Extra store on Dalmarnock Road, which is unprotected in retail policy terms Despite this assumption, the level of impact of the proposals on these out-of-centre stores, and town centre stores, is expected to be negligible, as presented in Table 7 in appendix I Table 8 shows market shares at 2019, taking into account trade diversions to the proposals. It is evident that impact on the protected centres is minimal with only a slight drop in market share for both Rutherglen and Bridgeton town centres, the only protected centres within the identified catchment area The proposed development does however make a significant contribution of retaining approximately a half of the turnover that was previous leakage from the catchment area. This in turn will likely assist in creating linked trips to the neighbouring centres, specifically Rutherglen In summary, the limited levels of trade diversion would not result in an unacceptable individual or cumulative impact on the vitality and viability of the identified network of centres. We would therefore assert that the proposals are compliant with the relevant Local Development Plan policies and SPP. February 2016 gva.co.uk/scotland 6

9 Addendum to Retail Statement 3. Conclusions 3.1 This assessment has been prepared by GVA James Barr as an addendum to the Retail Statement previously submitted in support of this application at the site at 5-9 and Dalmarnock Road, Rutherglen. This assessment has provided a detailed quantitative analysis of the retail impact of the proposals on convenience floorspace within the appropriate catchment area. 3.2 The proposals comprise 25,000sqft/2,323sqm retail floorspace, including a maximum of 25,000sqft/2,323sqm comparison/non-food or a maximum of 10,000sqft/929sqm convenience/food retail gross floorspace. 3.3 In our view, it is evident that there is significant capacity for comparison floorspace in the region, we have therefore not fully assessed the impact on comparison goods as noted within this report. We have assessed the impact on convenience floorspace however and have identified the proposals will have a negligible impact on the neighbouring centres and existing and proposed stores. 3.4 The wider proposed development at the site will make a significant contribution to the local economy and help regenerate a prominent site within the Clyde Gateway. The proposed retail element is essential to the proposals and will assist with delivering a viable scheme on the edge of Rutherglen, adjacent to the town centre. The proposals will in turn likely create further linked trips to Rutherglen town centre and make a significant contribution to retaining trade within the catchment area. 3.5 In view of these conclusions, we would respectfully request that South Lanarkshire Council approve the proposals in due course. February 2016 gva.co.uk/scotland 7

10 GVA James Barr Appendix I Retail Assessment Tables gva.co.uk/scotland

11 SANMEX BUILDINGS, DOWNIEBRAE ROAD, RUTHERGLEN FEBRUARY 2016 TABLE 1 - POPULATION PROJECTIONS Current Date Test Date Catchment Area Drivetime 23,339 23,547 Notes: Sourced from Experian Micromarketer commissioned report (Feb 2016)

12 SANMEX BUILDINGS, DOWNIEBRAE ROAD, RUTHERGLEN FEBRUARY 2016 TABLE 2A - CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE FORECASTS Convenience Expenditure Adjustments: Catchment Area 2,260 2,215 2,229 Convenience Expenditure Forecasts: Catchment Total TABLE 2B - COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE FORECASTS Convenience Expenditure Adjustments: Catchment Area 2,679 2,976 3,252 Comparison Expenditure Forecasts: Catchment Total Notes: Expenditure per capita figures sourced from Experian Area Profile Report (February 2016) Grown at -1.0% per annum between 2014 and 2016 and at 0.2% per annum from 2016 to 2019 Grown at 5.4% per annum between 2014 and 2016 and at 3.0% per annum from 2016 to 2019 Growth rate sourced from Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 13 (Oct 2015) 2014 price year

13 SANMEX BUILDINGS, DOWNIEBRAE ROAD, RUTHERGLEN FEBRUARY 2016 TABLE 3: EXISTING/PROPOSED FLOORSPACE AND COMPANY AVERAGE TURNOVER (Convenience) Location Net Sales Floorspace* (sq m) Net Convenience Sales Floorspace* (sq m) Company Average Sales Density* ( per sq m) Total Turnover 2016 ** Total Turnover 2019 ** Catchment Area Rutherglen Town Centre Co-op , Iceland , Farmfoods , Other town centre stores 1,095 3, Sub-total 1,169 2, Bridgeton Town Centre Iceland , Scottish Co-Op , Sub-total Other Stores outwith town centres Tesco Extra, Dalmarnock Road 6,451 3,871 12, Aldi, Harriet Street , Asda, Toryglen 4,681 3,043 17, Sub-total 5,499 3, Other Proposed Commitments within Catchment Site at Junction 2, M74, Cambuslang 1,951 1,561 11, CATCHMENT AREA TOTAL Notes: * Floorspace figures sourced from IGD Database and GVA site visits. Sales densities based on Verdict Grocery Retailers 2012 and grown to 2016 or Mintel Retail Rankings Otherwise based upon GVA estimates. ** Turnover grown at -0.06% per annum. sourced from Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note October 2015 Assumes stores trading at 100% of average turnover price year

14 SANMEX BUILDINGS, DOWNIEBRAE ROAD, RUTHERGLEN FEBRUARY 2016 TABLE 4 - MARKET SHARES (Convenience) 2016 Location Company Average Turnover % Estimated Turnover from Catchment* Turnover from Catchment Market Share (%) Catchment Area Rutherglen Town Centre Co-op % Iceland % Farmfoods % Other town centre stores % Sub-total Bridgeton Town Centre Iceland % Scottish Co-Op % Sub-total Other Stores outwith town centres Tesco Extra, Dalmarnock Road % Aldi, Harriet Street % Asda, Toryglen % Sub-total Other Proposed Commitments within Catchment Site at Junction 2, M74, Cambuslang % Catchment Turnover Outflow from Catchment Area Total Expenditure Notes * Estimates based on GVA site visits and retail planning experience

15 SANMEX BUILDINGS, DOWNIEBRAE ROAD, RUTHERGLEN FEBRUARY 2016 TABLE 5 - MARKET SHARES (Convenience) 2019 Location Company Average Turnover % Estimated Turnover from Catchment* Turnover from Catchment Market Share (%) Catchment Area Rutherglen Town Centre Co-op % Iceland % Farmfoods % Other town centre stores % Sub-total Bridgeton Town Centre Iceland % Scottish Co-Op % Sub-total Other Stores outwith town centres Tesco Extra, Dalmarnock Road % Aldi, Harriet Street % Asda, Toryglen % Sub-total Other Proposed Commitments within Catchment Site at Junction 2, M74, Cambuslang % Catchment Turnover Outflow from Catchment Area Total Expenditure Notes * Estimates based on GVA site visits and retail planning experience

16 SANMEX BUILDINGS, DOWNIEBRAE ROAD, RUTHERGLEN FEBRUARY 2016 TABLE 6 - TURNOVER OF PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT 2019 Scale of Proposals: (sq ft) (sq m) Gross floorspace 25,000 2,323 Net Sales Area 20,000 1,858 Convenience Goods Gross Area 10, Convenience Goods Net Sales Area 8, Market Share: Available Convenience expenditure from catchment Potential Convenience Market Share (%) 8 Convenience Turnover from Catchment 4.20 Total Turnover of Store: Convenience Goods Sales 4.83 Turnover from Catchment Area: Convenience Goods Sales 4.20 Notes: Assumes that 15% of trade will be drawn from outwith the catchment area

17 SANMEX BUILDINGS, DOWNIEBRAE ROAD, RUTHERGLEN FEBRUARY 2016 TABLE 7 - TRADE DIVERSIONS (Convenience) - Application PROPOSALS Location Turnover Diversion (%) Diversion Post Proposal's Turnover Impact (%) Catchment Area Rutherglen Town Centre TC Co-op Iceland Farmfoods Other town centre stores Sub-total Bridgeton Town Centre TC Iceland Scottish Co-Op Sub-total Other Stores outwith town centres OOC Tesco Extra, Dalmarnock Road Aldi, Harriet Street Asda, Toryglen Sub-total Other Proposed Commitments within Catchment OOC Site at Junction 2, M74, Cambuslang Other (locations outwith catchment area) Diversion (%) Total Turnover 4.20 Abbreviations: TC = Town Centre, LSC = Local Shopping Centre, CC = Commercial Centre, OOC = Out of Centre

18 SANMEX BUILDINGS, DOWNIEBRAE ROAD, RUTHERGLEN FEBRUARY 2016 TABLE 8 - MARKET SHARES (Convenience) 2019 PLUS PROPOSALS Location Company Average Turnover % Estimated Turnover from Catchment* Turnover from Catchment Market Share (%) Catchment Area Rutherglen Town Centre Co-op % Iceland % Farmfoods % Other town centre stores % Sub-total Bridgeton Town Centre Iceland % Scottish Co-Op % Sub-total Other Stores outwith town centres Tesco Extra, Dalmarnock Road % Aldi, Harriet Street % Asda, Toryglen % Sub-total Other Proposed Commitments within Catchment Site at Junction 2, M74, Cambuslang % APPLICATION PROPOSALS Catchment Turnover Outflow from Catchment Area Total Expenditure Notes * Estimates based on GVA site visits and retail planning experience