World Oil Consumption

Transcription

1 Boundaries of Renewable Energy & the Laws of Physics Tinus Pulles & Justin Goodwin World Oil Consumption Play video 2 1

2 Global (fossil) energy use About two thirds of the world s energy use comes from fossil fuel Only a limited number (20) of countries use a large fraction of the energy (79 % of fossil and 41 % of non-fossil fuels) energy use (cummulative TJ/year) Millions Malta Congo Togo Mongolia Republic of Moldova Albania Benin Georgia Costa Rica El Salvador Bolivia Lebanon Lithuania Yemen Bosnia and Herzegovina Cuba Cr oatia Ecuador Azerbaijan Mozambique Turkmenistan Serbia and Montenegro Peru Hong Kong, China Israel Ireland Singapore Hungary Ethiopia Switzerland Iraq Romania Czech Republic Sweden Venezuela Egypt Netherlands Pakistan Ukraine Saudi Arabia Spain Korea France Germany India United States countries fossil non-fossil 3 Global (fossil) energy use Per capita Only a small number of countries with high per capita energy use Large share of fossil fuels in all developed countries Large share of non-fossil fuels (biomass) in Developping countries Nordic countries (Canada, Sweden, Norway, Finland) per capita energy use (TJ/capita/year) Bangladesh Yemen Cote d'ivoire Benin Ghana Philippines India Cameroon Tajikistan El Salvador Angola Nicaragua Mongolia Armenia Georgia Paraguay Tunisia Costa Rica Albania Iraq Brazil Azerbaijan Turkey Argentina Bosnia and Chile Oman Gabon Poland Latvia Islamic Republic of Hungary Russia Italy United Kingdom Switzerland Germ any Czech Republic Austria Singapore Bahrain Norway United Arab Trinidad and Brunei Darussalam Luxembourg per capita non-fossil fuel use per capita fossil fuel use countries 4 2

3 CO 2 and global warming? CO 2 concentrations increase more CO 2 more energy absorbed 5? Climate Change = Problem No absolute scientific proof Probability that it is a problem = 20 x the probability that it is not Discussions Excuse for inaction 6 3

4 Could we solve the problem? Energy use is essential: we use a lot and we use more and more over time Energy use is seen as a right : fossil fuel exists, so we will use it! But: combustion of fossil fuels causes us problems Air pollution Climate change 7 Could we solve the problem? So, to really solve the problems: We must move away from fossil fuels to stop global warming We must move away from combustion to prevent air pollution Can this be done? 8 4

5 National Energy system (the Netherlands) 2200 PJ/year Data from EUROSTAT 9 Energy Demand What do we use and what for? Final energy consumption Netherlands use 2200 PJ: Natural gas Petroleum products Electricity Renewables are hardly visible About 10 % of electric power in 2007 PJ Nuclear Energy Industrial Wastes Renewable Energies Solid Fuels Derived Heat Electrical Energy Crude oil and Petroleum Products Gas Input to thermal power stations PJ Industrial Wastes Crude oil and Petroleum Products Renewable Energies Solid Fuels Gas Electrical Energy produced 10 5

6 Energy Demand What do we use and what for? Final energy consumption Netherlands use 2200 PJ: Natural gas Petroleum products Electricity To Renewables are hardly visible About 10 % of electric power in 2007 Run the industry Run our road vehicles Heat our houses and dwellings Supply services To name the most important usages A significant increase of renewables would change the energy system completely! We must find ways to run the major energy uses on renewables 11 PJ PJ Final energy consumption Nuclear Energy Industrial Wastes Renewable Energies Solid Fuels Derived Heat Electrical Energy Crude oil and Petroleum Products Gas Fisheries Other Sectors Rail transport Inland navigation Air transport Agriculture Services Road transport Households Industry Decrease fossil energy use in transport Supply: Other fuels Hydrogen (must be produced from non-fossil origin!) Electric cars Demand: Increase efficiency Smaller cars Hybrid cars Eco driving schemes decrease 12 Renewable Energy & Laws of Non-fossil Physics hydrogen or power 6

7 Energy Demand: Better passenger cars Passenger cars Assume all cars in the Netherlands one class smaller: GHG emissions decreases by 7 to 9% Gains in other pollutants decrease, due to improved engine technologies Percentage 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Acidification GWP Particulate matter TOFP -7% -8% -9% -10% Year Assume all cars in the Netherlands are hybrids GHG emissions decrease by a factor of two Considerable reduction in air polutant emissions Percentage 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Acidification GWP Particulate matter TOFP -80% -90% -100% 13 Year Energy Supply Could solar energy solve our needs? Final Energy Demand in the Netherlands Final demand in PJ/year Number of hours in a year hours/year Number of seconds in an hour seconds/hour Averaged energy demand 70 GW Seems to be a lot. But...: Diffuse energy flux needs to be concentrated low transformation efficiency Photovoltaics: 10 to 20 % We need it also when there is no sunshine energy storage Photosynthesis: < 1 % Solar radiation in the Netherlands Surface of the Netherlands m^2 Averaged solar irradiation 118 W/m^2 Available solar energy 4130 GW (solar irradiation)/(final energy demand) =

8 Energy Supply Could wind energy solve our needs? Final Energy Demand in the Netherlands Final demand in PJ/year Number of hours in a year hours/year Number of seconds in an hour seconds/hour Averaged energy demand 70 GW Not as much as solar. But again: Diffuse energy flux needs to be concentrated We need it also when there is no wind Wind power potential in the Netherlands Surface of the Netherlands land m^2 Surface of the Netherlands fresh water m^2 Surface of the Dutch part of the North Sea Continental Shelf m^2 Average power per area 2 W/m^2 Available wind energy 203 GW (potential wind power)/(energy Demand) = Powering transport from solar Final Energy Demand for transport in the Netherlands Final demand in 2007 Number of hours in a year Number of seconds in an hour Averaged energy demand Solar radiation in the Netherlands Surface of the Netherlands Averaged solar irradiation Available solar energy 490 PJ/year hours/year seconds/hour 15.5 GW km^2 118 W/m^ GW Power from Solar Cells Efficiency 15.0% Area needed km^2 Percentage of the Netherlands surface 2.5% Biofuel from photosynthesis Efficiency 1.0% Area needed km^2 Percentage of the Netherlands surface 37.6% 16 8

9 Powering transport from wind Final Energy Demand for transport in the Netherlands Final demand in 2007 Number of hours in a year Number of seconds in an hour Averaged energy demand 490 PJ/year hours/year seconds/hour 15.5 GW Wind power potential in the Netherlands Surface of the Netherlands land km^2 Surface of the Netherlands fresh water km^2 Surface of the Dutch part of the North Sea Continental She km^2 Average power per area 2 W/m^2 Available wind energy GW Power from wind (no storage) Efficiency 90.0% Area needed km^2 Percentage of the Netherlands surface 8.5% 17 Buffering energy for transport Final demand in 2007 Number of hours in a year Number of seconds in an hour Averaged energy demand Wind power potential in the Netherlands Total storage capacity needed about one week averaged fuel demand Gravitational acceleration Surface of the IJsselmeer Potential energy for 1 m elevation Elevation to store 9.8 PJ 490 PJ/year hours/year seconds/hour 15.5 GW 2.0% of annual energy demand = 10 PJ 9.8 m/s^ km^ GJ 909 m 18 9

10 Climate Change: Challenge to the energy system Challenge Energy system is crucial Fossil fuels must be opted out Combustion must be avoided Solar and Wind are options, but with limitations But Equal rights for all countries: distribution of wealth Need to decrease final use in developed countries? Democratic decision making It is easier to ban incandescent light bulbs than to ban an SUV 19 Earlier environmental problems... Acid Rain Warnings in the 1980s Measures taken Problem largely solved Health effects of lead (Pb) Unleaded gasoline Depletion of the Ozone Layer Montreal Protocol Ozone Layer is expected to recover over the comming decennia Tropospheric ozone or Photochemical smog Emission measures in gasoline fuelled cars (catalysts) Surface water pollution Waste water treatment plants But keep physics in mind 20 10

11 Thank you 11