Modeling of an energy efficiency oriented transportation system planning methodology

Transcription

1 Modelng of an energy effcency orented transortaton system lannng methodology Hsu, Ten-Pen 1 ; Tzu-We Chang 2 1 Assocate Professor; 2 Research assstant, Dvson of Transortaton of Insttute of Cvl Engneerng Natonal Tawan Unversty Tae Roosevelt Road Sec.4 No. 1, Tawan Phone: , Fax: , Emal: hsut@ntu.edu.tw ABSTRACT Transortaton sector consumes more than 57% of the energy used by thrd economc sector n Tawan. For rovdng adequate transortaton system to fulfll the travel demand nduced by soco-economc actvty, the conventonal transortaton system lannng s startng from the travel demand forecastng rocess based on soco-economc actvty and then to create develoment alternatves to enhance the transortaton effcency. Resultng from ths rocedure, more soco-economc develoment requres more energy consumton fatally. In ths aer, a new thnkng way to revse the lannng rocedure s resented. A model, called energy effcency orented transortaton lannng methodology s roosed. It s based on a reversed lannng structure concet. Alyng the model, varous transortaton system suly structures under the constrant of energy consumton can be nvestgated. It can be aled to check the ossblty of servng more travel demand and to satsfy smlar soco-economc actvty, but consumng the same energy amount, esecally when the travelers use more energy effcency transortaton modes, such as ublc transort, or the energy effcency of each mode s enhanced. The model s a combnaton of a seres of matrces whch reresent the transformaton of the energy consumton, energy effcency of modes, modal slt of travel demand, tr dstrbuton between traffc zones, tr urose roorton, and total travel demand. The model wll be useful for lannng the energy conservaton orented transortaton system. Keywords: Energy effcency, Transortaton lannng model, Travel demand. 1. Introducton For transortng assengers and/or goods of soco-economcs actvtes, to rovde an effcent transortaton system s essental. More and more energy was consumed by vehcles on the street followng the develoment tendency of transortaton system n the ast. Due to the lmt of ol energy, how to reduce the energy consumton always s a hard ssue. U to date, for enhancng the transortaton system effcency, the transortaton system

2 scale s extended contnuously followng a result outut from the conventonal transortaton lannng. In the conventonal transortaton lannng, t s to generate the transortaton system develoment alternatve based on a travel demand forecastng rocess. In rncle, followng the travel demand forecastng rocess, transortaton system always s develoed for fulfllng the nduced demand of economc actvty, and then t tres to rovde suffcent transortaton caablty n order to be able to acheve hgh effcency. Followng ths develoment hlosohy, the develoment always mlcates more and more energy consumton for gettng a more and more effcent transortaton system. Hence, the whole transortaton system and ts caused energy consumton wll fall nto a vcous crcle. Under ths crcumstance, t s dffcult to romote the energy conservaton olcy followng ths develoment and lannng way. For reversng ths develoment drecton for matchng the energy concern, a new consderaton s needed,.e., to change the transortaton lannng methodology. If t s better the transortaton develoment wll be not just only for fulfllng the need of economc actvtes, but has to consder the energy conservaton as rerequste condton. For ths urose, a new thnkng s roosed n contrast to the conventonal develoment crcle. The new thnkng can be exlaned wth a converse crcle as shown n Fg. 1. The crcle s an ntegratve model connected wth three sectors, whch are the economc actvty, the transortaton lannng and develoment, and the energy effcency concern and energy consumton regulaton. The crcle s n a cause-and-effect structure based on the relatonsh between transortaton develoment and the soco economy sector, and the energy usage nduced by transortaton oeraton. Conventonal New thnkng Fgure 1 Integratve crcle of socoeconomc actvtes and transortaton lannng and energy consumton Conventonally, the develoment follows the clockwse drecton on the crcle n Fg. 1. Startng from energy concern reversely, a new model structure s roosed to follow the ant-clockwse crcle n Fg.1. The model s exected to effect on rovdng a more energy

3 effcent transortaton system to fulfll the same amount of travel demand nduced by economc actvty. 2. Conventonal Transortaton Plannng Procedure In the conventonal transortaton lannng, whose rocedure s llustrated n Fg. 2, the energy consumton wll be evaluated at the last stage, followng the alternatve evaluaton rocess. Therefore, bascally, n the lannng, the develoment alternatve of transortaton system s created to fulfll the need nduced by soco economc actvty even f t wll requre more energy consumton. Normally, when the transortaton system gets more effcency, that means the transortaton system can suort more soco economc actvtes, meanwhle t wll cause more energy consumton. In general, t always means more energy usage when the transortaton system s extended. Nevertheless, for enhancng the energy effcency of the transortaton system, t needs to reduce the traffc congeston. Ths consderaton causes the lanner try to rovde more transortaton caablty for remedyng traffc congeston, e.g., to buld more hghways. Consequently, t wll not result n decrease of energy consumton. Instead, t wll cause more energy consumton on the hghway. Energy ntensty of a mode s defned as energy consumton of the mode er klometer. A transortaton system contans varous modes, ncludng automoble, motorcycle and buses etc. Snce the energy ntensty of every mode s dfferent, to change mode can change energy consumton level. Therefore, the dfferent energy ntenstes of modes can be consdered as one of the key onts for buldng a transortaton lannng model. In conventonal transortaton lannng, the travel demand s forecasted usng a tycal four stage method. The four stages are the tr generaton by the urose, tr dstrbuton to estmate the trs from orgn zone to destnaton zone, modal slt to analyze the mode choce, and traffc assgnment to estmate the traffc volume on each route and then to estmate the erformance of the transortaton network. Followng ths rocess, energy consumton can then be estmated after the traffc assgnment, at the last stage. It s to calculate the ol consumton usng the traffc erformance data of the transortaton network resulted from traffc assgnment, such as the travel seed and the traffc volume. Hence, a tr wll have 5 dmensons, whch are ncludng the travel urose (), tr orgn zone (), tr destnaton zone (j), mode (m), and route (r), denoted as T jmr. The conventonal transortaton lannng rocedure s llustrated n Fg. 2.

4 Poulaton and emloyment forecasts Tr generaton Household structure Tr dstrbuton Mode slt Transortaton network and servce attrbuton Tr assgnment Lnk and O-D flows Travel tmes, cost, etc. Energy consumton estmaton Fgure 2 Conventonal Procedure of Transortaton Plannng In the conventonal transortaton lannng, travel demand forecastng rocess ncludes followng four man stages: 1. Tr generaton, ncludng tr roducton and attracton, to forecast the number of trs roduced from a traffc zone or attracted to a traffc zone. It denotes the trs number generated for dfferent travel uroses such as work, school, shong, recreaton etc., 2. Tr dstrbuton, to dstrbute the trs from a zone to another zone,.e. from orgn zone to destnaton zone, called O D flows, 3. Modal slt, to redct the ercentage of the trs usng a mode, such as usng rvate car, motorcycle; ublc transt: bus, metro etc., and 4. Tr assgnment, to assgn the O D flows to secfc route between two zones n the transortaton network. The formula of the four stage travel demand forecastng rocess can be wrtten as T jmr = Tjmr (1) r T = T = T (2) j jm m m r jmr

5 T T (3) j = Tj = j j m r = Tj = m r jmr T T (4) jmr T = T = j T = T (5) j j m r where T : tr roducton; for the urose, roduced from the zone. T j : tr attracton; for the urose, attracted to the zone j. T j : the tr dstrbuton; from zone to zone j. T jm : trs takng the mode of m for the urose, from zone to zone j. T jmr : trs usng ath r to travel from zone to zone j.. T : the total number of trs. The meanng of the rocedure s llustrated n Fg. 3. jmr Tr roducton j Tr attracton Tr O-D dstrbuton j Prvate Modal slt j Transt Network j Tr assgnment Fgure 3 The sequental modelng of travel demand forecastng Takng a vrtual lannng area wth three traffc zones as examle, suose the three zones are the resdental area (Zone 1), the busness area (Zone 2), and the ndustral area (Zone 3), and there are close to each other, as shown n Fg. 4.

6 Fgure 4 The three-zone area for lannng transortaton system (magned) Resultng from the travel demand forecastng accordng to the data of travel demand survey, suosedly, the zone 1 roduces 6 trs and attracts 4 trs a day, as shown n Fg. 5. In the 6 trs roduced from zone 1, there are 2 trs move from orgn zone 1 to destnaton zone 2, and n whch there are 12 trs by the rvate car. There are three routes n the transortaton network can be chosen. Accordng to the traffc assgnment result, there are 5 trs takng the route 1 and the route wll have a certan travel seed and the energy consumton level. If the trs take ublc transort, the energy consumton wll be reduced; the total trs amount could kee unchanged and the transortaton system can fulfll the same demand of the soco-economc actvtes. Modal Slt Tr Generaton Tr Dstrbuton Traffc assgnment Fgure 5. The stages for the sequental model of transortaton lannng

7 3. Modelng of energy orented transortaton lannng model Reversely, f a lannng s startng from the energy consumton, takng t as constrant, and then to estmate the travel demand under the constrant of energy consumton, the transortaton lannng wll ossbly generate the develoment alternatve accordng to energy concern. Then, the lannng result can rovde a soluton to match the energy conservaton olcy. Followng the result, the transortaton system develoment can then leave from the vcous crcle. Consequently, the travel demand estmated through ths rocess reflects the caablty of the transortaton system can suly wth the energy consumton. The new model s a matrx chan structure as follows: Px1 = Px * x * TxM * MxM * MxE * Ex1 (6) In the model, TPD s the matrx of tr number the system can suly, reresentng the number of trs for dfferent uroses, such as work, school, recreaton etc. The value of TPD matrx wll reflect the changes of every matrx n the model. The matrx chan starts from the constrant of the fnal energy consumton (ED) by transortaton sector. The value of TPD matrx s derved from the roduct of the matrces nvolved. The matrces nvolved nclude the matrx of usage ercentage of each transortaton mode (MA), the energy effcency of each mode (EP), and the transortaton erformance matrx (TP) for reflectng the tr length, mode occuaton and fuel consumton adjustment coeffcent of traffc condton. The mode chan correlaton wthn a tr wll be consdered nto the model by nvolvng the mode chan adjustment factor matrx (TC). The last transform matrx s the travel urose roorton matrx (PA). a. TPD (Tr Number Matrx): The general form of TPD x1 matrx s Home Work Home Educaton x1 = Home Other (Trs) (7) NonHome where, the matrx varable defned as tr, and P denotes tr urose; such as home-work tr, home-educaton tr, home-other tr(shong, busness etc.), non-home based tr etc. b. ED (Energy Demand Matrx): Ths matrx exresses the fnal energy consumton by transortaton sector. The tyes of energy n ED matrx nclude gasolne, desel, electrcty, or the other knds of energy, n LOE (Lter Ol Equvalent). The general form of ED matrx s

8 Ex1 = ed ed ed gasolne desel electrc (L) (8) where the matrx varable s defned as Lter-Ol-Equvalent, and E denotes the energy tyes such as gasolne, desel, electrcty ower. c. MA (Modal Slt Matrx): The matrx exresses the energy usage roorton of mode. The value n MA matrx (ma me ) s the roorton of the total energy consumed by each knd of transortaton mode (m) n energy tye (e). Nme K me Eme ma me = (9) (Nme Kme Eme) m where N me : the regstraton number of the mode K me : the average mleage of the mode (Km) E me : the recrocal of the energy effcency of the model (Lt/Km). The general form of MA matrx s MxE = ma ma ma 12 ma j (%) (1) where the matrx varable s a coeffcent rato and M denotes mode tye (m), such as motorcycle (m=1), automoble (m=2), bus (m=3) etc., and E denotes energy tyes (e), such as gasolne (e=1), desel (e=2), electrc ower (e=3) etc.. d. EP (Energy Productvty Matrx): EP s the matrx to reresent the average energy effcency of mode. The energy effcency (EP m ) of mode (m) would relate to the vehcle age, the vehcle brands and so on. The average energy effcency of a mode can be estmated as EP m = n N * E n N where N: the regstraton number of tye of vehcle of mode (m) E: the energy effcency of tye of vehcle of mode (m). (11)

9 Takng automoble as examle, the EP of automoble wll be Ea * Na + Eb * Nb + Ec * Nc + Ed * Nd EP automoble = Na + Nb + Nc + Nd where the automoble s classfed nto 4 tyes a, b, c, and d wth engne volume,.e. a:~12cc, b: 121~18cc, c:181~24cc, d:24cc~. The general form of EP matrx s MxM = e mototcycle e automoble e bus e mod e (km/l) (12) where the matrx varable s defned as km/l, and M denotes mode tyes, such as motorcycle, automoble, bus etc. e. TP (Transformaton Rate of Tr Matrx): The matrx value of TP can be derved from the sequental travel demand forecastng rocess n the transortaton lannng. It can use the hstorcal travel demand data to calculate t. It exresses the travel demand arameter denoted as a transformaton rate calculated wth tr length, the mode choce, the average occuancy rate of mode of every orgn-destnaton zone ar. The general form of TP matrx s TxM = t t t motorcycle(1,1) motorcycle(1,2) motorcycle(n,n) t auto (1,1) t bus (1,1) t mode (,j) (ersons/km-mode) (13) where the matrx varable s defned as erson er klometer of mode, and T denotes the dmenson by O-D ar, such as (1,1), (1,2) (,j), (n,n) and M denotes mode tye, such as motorcycle, automoble, bus etc. The value of t mode -(,j) s t mode-(,j) = τ m-(,j) *ω m-(,j) *ρ m-(,j) *κ m-(,j) (14) where τ m-(,j) = the recrocal of average travel length of trs usng mode m from zone to zone j (1 km). ω m-(,j) = traffc condton adjustment coeffcent of energy effcency, whch deends on urban traffc condton, when n revalng traffc stuaton, t can be gnored and seen as 1; f the traffc condton s bad, e.g., f the traffc s often congested, ts value wll be

10 less than 1. ρ m-(,j) = occuancy rate of mode m from zone to zone j (erson/vehcle). κ m-(,j) = modal share by mode m of the trs from zone to zone j. f. TC (Tr Mode Chan Adjustment Matrx): Mode chan means one tr nvolvng more than one mode. Mode chan wll cause the trs number overestmated, because the tr number estmated before ths stage s based on each mode, f one tr takes two modes, then, the tr wll mght be counted as two trs. Therefore, ths matrx s to elmnate the over-counted trs arsen by the mode chan. The mode chan data can be obtaned ether through home ntervew survey or through travel dary survey. It s denoted as average value for each O-D ar. The general form of TC matrx s tc tc (1,1) (1,1) (1,2) (1,1) tc (1,1) (1,2) tc (1,1) (1,3) TxT = (14) tc (, j) (, j) where the matrx varable s a coeffcent rato, and T denotes O-D ar,.e. (1,1), (1,2), (,j), (n,n); n s the number of traffc zones. g. PA (Tr Purose Allocaton Matrx): PA matrx exresses the tr urose roorton of trs between every O-D ar. Its value can get from the hstory data resultng from travel survey. The general form of PA matrx s a a HW (1,1) HE (1,1) a HW (1,2) a HW (1,3) PxT = (15) a urose (, j) where the matrx varable s defned as a coeffcent rato; P denotes tye of tr urose, and t s exressed n each O-D ar T, such as. (1,1), (1,2), (,j), (n,n); n s the number of traffc zones; the value a -(,j) s the roorton of tr urose of mode m from zone to P zone j; a (, j) = 1. = 1 4. Alcaton In order to exlan the model functon, here, takng an examle wth three traffc zones aforementoned n Fg 4 and Fg. 5 to calculate the matrx. The data are set accordng to the revalng travel demand stuaton..

11 a. ED matrx: Assumng the resdents n the lannng area consume totally gasolne 45 LOE and desel 5 LOE. The ED matrx s then Ex1 = gasolne desel b. MA matrx: 45 (L) 5 Accordng to the vehcle regstraton data and the ol consumton statstc nformaton, the roorton of gasolne consumed by motorcycle s.28 and the roorton of gasolne consumed by automoble s.792. The roorton of desel used by automoble s.25 and the roorton of desel used by bus s.75. The MA matrx s then MxE = motorcycle automoble bus c. EP matrx: gasolne desel Suose the energy effcency of motorcycle s 4 km/l, the energy effcency of automoble s 1 km/l, the energy effcency of bus s 2 km/l. The EP matrx s then MxM = automoble d. TP matrx: motorcycle bus (km/l) Bascally, the TP matrx conssts of 4 knds of re-calculated data, whch are about the tr length., traffc condton adjustment factor, occuancy er vehcle and the modal share rato of the trs from zone to zone j. Suose the average tr length wthn traffc zone n ths case s 2 km, and the tr length between two zones s 5 km. The travel length data of τ m-(,j) are llustrated n Table 1. Suosedly, every mode has the same average travel dstance. Table 1. The data for travel length factor of τ m-(,j) O-D ar motorcycle automoble Bus (1,1) 1/2 1/2 1/2 (1,2) 1/5 1/5 1/5 (1,3) 1/5 1/5 1/5 (2,1) 1/5 1/5 1/5 (2,2) 1/2 1/2 1/2 (2,3) 1/5 1/5 1/5 (3,1) 1/5 1/5 1/5 (3,2) 1/5 1/5 1/5 (3,3) 1/2 1/2 1/2

12 The traffc condton adjustment factors ω are shown n Table 2. Table 2. The traffc condton adjustment factor for energy effcency ω (n ths case, suose no adjustment, the adjustment factor s 1) O-D Par motorcycle automoble Bus (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) The occuancy rates of each mode for the trs of every O-D ar n ths case are shown n Table 3. Normally, for smlfcaton, the occuancy rate of the mode can be seen as same for all the O-D ars. The data of occuancy rate can be obtaned through traffc survey. It s denoted as number of erson er vehcle. Table 3. The data of occuancy rate of the mode used for the trs of each O-D ar. O-D ar motorcycle automoble Bus (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) The modal share of each mode s shown n Table 4, counted as a total value wth all O-D ars. These modal share data are derved from the modal slt result, as shown n Fg. 5, whch can be obtaned from the study on modal share rato.

13 Table 4. The modal share data n ths case between each O-D ar. O-D ar motorcycle automoble Bus (1,1) 1/38 6/35 9/27 (1,2) 7/38 5/35 8/27 (1,3) 6/38 8/35 1/27 (2,1) 4/38 4/35 3/27 (2,2) 5/38 2/35 5/27 (2,3) 1/38 5/35 1/27 (3,1) 2/38 2/35 /27 (3,2) 2/38 1/35 /27 (3,3) 1/38 2/35 /27 Combnng the data of τ, ω, ρ, and κ table, the calculaton of TP matrx s shown n Table 5. The result s shown n Table 6. Table 5. The calculaton of the data for TP matrx O-D ar motorcycle automoble Bus (1,1) 1/2*1*1.2*1/38 1/2*1*2*6/35 1/2*1*3*9/27 (1,2) 1/5*1*1.2*7/38 1/5*1*2*5/35 1/5*1*3*8/27 (1,3) 1/5*1*1.2*6/38 1/5*1*2*8/35 1/5*1*3*1/27 (2,1) 1/5*1*1.2*4/38 1/5*1*2*4/35 1/5*1*3*3/27 (2,2) 1/2*1*1.2*5/38 1/2*1*2*2/35 1/2*1*3*5/27 (2,3) 1/5*1*1.2*1/38 1/5*1*2*5/35 1/5*1*3*1/27 (3,1) 1/5*1*1.2*2/38 1/5*1*2*2/35 1/5*1*3*/27 (3,2) 1/5*1*1.2*2/38 1/5*1*2*1/35 1/5*1*3*/27 (3,3) 1/2*1*1.2*1/38 1/2*1*2*2/35 1/2*1*3*/27 Table 6. The data for TP matrx O-D ar motorcycle automoble Bus (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (3,1) (3,2) (3,3)

14 e. TC matrx: For smlfcaton, the mode chan correcton factor s set as 1 n ths case. That means t s gnored. In general, the data of mode chan s dffcult to be obtaned. It needs to conduct a secal survey usng travel dary ntervew for obtanng the data. In ths case, the data for TC matrx are shown n Table 7. Table 7. Mode chan data for TC matrx O-D ar (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (1,1) 1 (1,2) 1 (1,3) 1 (2,1) 1 (2,2) 1 (2,3) 1 (3,1) 1 (3,2) 1 (3,3) 1 f. PA matrx: The data for PA matrx are shown n Table 8. The data n the table are derved from the tr generaton and attracton data n Fg. 5, and descrbed n the order of tr uroses,.e. home-work, home-educaton, home-other, non-home etc. for each O-D ar. The data are obtaned through a travel demand survey or redcted by usng tr generaton model. Each O-D ar wll have a tr generaton urose roorton data. Table 8. Tr urose roorton of each O-D ar for the PA matrx Tr (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) Puroses 5/25 1/2 1/15 2/11 7/12 4/7 1/4 1/3 1/3 13/25 4/2 2/15 5/11 3/12 1/7 2/4 1/3 1/3 5/25 5/2 2/15 3/11 2/12 1/7 1/4 1/3 1/3 Non- 2/25 1/2 1/15 1/11 1/12 1/7 /3 /3 Fnally, combnng wth all the matrces from ED to PA roduces the TPD matrx. The data of TPD matrx resulted means the transortaton system can suly by consumng the energy amount of ED matrx. 4x1 = 4x9 * 9x9 * 9x3 * 3x3 * 3x2 * 2x1

15 = 4x9 * 9x9 * 9x3 = = = H W H E H O nonh (trs) * * 2 * * 5 45 * 5 The result of TPD s the trs can be served by the transortaton system under the consumton of gasolne 45 lters and desel 5 lters. There are 4933 of work trs, 1542 of educaton trs, and 96 of home-based trs and 4 of non-home-based trs. If the data n any matrx vares, the result of TPD wll vary. That means, same energy consumton amount can serve dfferent travel demand when the structure of PA, TC, TP, EP, and MA are changed. For nstance, f the energy effcency s enhanced, more trs can be served by transortaton system under the same energy consumton. 5. Alcaton for transortaton lannng For llustratng the effect of the model, a seres of scenaro are nvestgated to check the effect of varous transortaton strateges. CASE 1. Assume a case wth the total energy consumton of 1 LOE. In MA matrx, the energy consumed by motorcycle shares 2% of total energy consumton; the energy consumed by automoble shares 6% and by bus shares 2%. If the data n other matrces kee the same as examle aforementoned, the calculaton result of TPD s then 4 2% 4x1 = 4x9 * 9x9 * 9x3 1 * 6% 1 2 2%

16 = * = H W H E H O nonh (trs) CASE 2. Suose that the government carres out the olcy to ban automobles and to romote the usage of ublc transt buses. It s exected that through ths countermeasure the modal slt structure wll change. If the objectve s set to shft 1% energy consumton from automobles to buses, whch means more suly on bus servce and less assengers usng automoble The bus wll share 3% of energy consumton. The new calculaton result of TPD s then 4 2% 4x1 = 4x9 * 9x9 * 9x3 * 1 * 5% 1 2 3% = * 5 = H W 9973 H E 4511 (tr) H O 2538 nonh 15 Accordng to the result, totally, n the lannng area, the transortaton system can serve 1882 trs by consumng 1 LOE energy. Comarng to the revous condton wthout the encouragement olcy on ublc transortaton, the number of trs ncreases 119 through the encouragement olcy wth the same energy consumton. In the ncrease of trs, the tr number of urose H-E, H-O, and non-h ndvdually ncrease 612, 311, and 17 trs, but the tr number of H-W decreases 11 trs. The reason s due to the encouragement strategy for ublc transortaton. CASE 3. The thrd case s to suose that government wll carry out a olcy to reduce the energy consumed by motorcycles and to romote the usage of ublc transt buses. Then, f t s exectable 1% energy consumed by automobles wll be shfted to motorcycles. Some trs wll change to be served by bus. Therefore, the result of TPD becomes then 4 3% 4x1 = 4x9 * 9x9 * 9x3 * 1 * 5% * 1 2 2%

17 = * 5 = H W 1126 H E 4284 (tr) H O 2433 nonh 114 Comarng to the orgnal condton of CASE 1, the number of trs ncreases 174 trs by consumng same energy amount of 1L Comarng wth CASE 2, the enhancement of the trs carred n ths case s greater than n CASE 2. It mlcates that to shft 1% of total energy consumed by motorcycles to buses wll cause more change of tr number than to shft the energy usage from automoble to buses. CASE 4. Consderng a case of tryng to reduce the energy consumton through energy conservaton rogram, t wll exect to make the energy consumton reduce to 95 LOE. It can be acheved, for nstance, through a olcy to rovde more buses and also to ban the usage of automoble. Therefore, the energy usage of buses wll share 3%; the automoble wll share 5% and motorcycle wll share 2%. Both MA matrx and ED matrx would vary. The TPD s then 4 2% 4x1 = 4x9 * 9x9 * 9x3 * 1 * 5% % = * 475 = H W 9474 H E 4286 (tr) H O 2411 nonh 997 Comarng to the revous case, the total tr number stll ncreases 115 trs, n whch the H-E, H-O, and non-h trs ndvdually ncrease of 387, 184, and 54, but the H-W decrease of 51 trs. It wll cause the tr structure changed, but the tr number stll ncrease. The transortaton system consumng such energy can also suort the not less amount of soco-economc actvtes. CASE 5. In general, energy effcency of motorcycle s better than automoble n terms of the ol consumton er klometer. The caablty of motorcycle to carry the assenger s less than the automoble. The effect of the change the modal share between the automoble and motorcycle on the tr number s needed to be nvestgated. Suose tryng to ut the 1% share of energy consumed by automobles shft to the share by motorcycles, the result of tr number the transortaton system can suly wll vary and becomes

18 4 3% 4x1 = 4x9 * 9x9 * 9x3 * 1 * 5% % = * 475 = H W 1475 H E 47 (tr) H O 2311 nonh 963 Comarng to the revous case, the total tr number ncreases 766 trs, n whch the H-W, H-E, H-O, and non-h ndvdually ncrease 491, 171, 84, and 2 trs. That means, even the motorcycle can carry less assengers er vehcle than the automoble, however, due to the energy effcency, the more usage of motorcycle can enhance the energy effcency of whole transortaton system. 6. Concluson and suggeston The model develoed n ths aer can reflect the ossble varaton of transortaton suly to match wth the energy conservaton olcy and can be taken as a tool to nvestgate the ossble effect of strategy of varous transortaton suly alternatves wth asect of energy consumton. Under the constrant of energy consumton, the soco-economc demand on transortaton can be fulflled even consumng less energy, n case the structure of transortaton system suly and travel demand feature can be adjusted. The model s roven useful relmnary. However, there are a lot new ssues arsen needed to be nvestgated further. For examle, how to connect wth the transortaton develoment alternatve and evaluaton of transortaton erformance, and then to comromse wth the energy consumton orented lannng result. For more detal, how to change the structure of the tr from the more congested ath to less congested ath and then change the tr orgn-destnaton dstrbuton attern, whch relates to the land use attern of an urban area, also can be nvestgated usng the model when s refned n the tr dstrbuton matrx. The ntal dea n ths aer rovoke a new concet that revses the transortaton lannng rocedure to start from the energy concern and then to fulfll travel demand. It s dfferent from the conventonal transortaton lannng rocedure, whch starts from the travel demand. Ths concet s worth to be nvestgated further n the future contnuously. Reference [1]. Yunchang Jeffrey Bor, Yee-Chu Cheng, Energy Forecastng (EnFore) System: An Integrated Modelng Concet n 3-E Problem, n reort of The study of energy conservaton objectve and energy effcency ndex statstc data collecton lan, 24. [2]. Internatonal Energy Agency, Energy Indcators and Sustanable Develoment, 21. [3]. Insttute of Transortaton Engneer, Transortaton lannng Handbook, USA, 21.