Preserving Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from Coastal Ecosystems

Transcription

1 Preserving Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from Coastal Ecosystems RFF Breakfast September 27, 2011 Juha Siikamäki (RFF) with Jim Sanchirico (UC Davis), Sunny Jardine (UC Davis) Dave McLaughlin and Danny Morris (RFF) Funding by Linden Trust for Conservation, Vicki and Roger Sant, and Resources for the Future

2 Mangroves 1

3 Salt Marshes and Sea Grasses 2

4 Coastal Development 3

5 Motivation Coastal ecosystems constitute significant carbon storage Coastal development threatens coastal areas Agriculture, aquaculture, residential, tourism, industrial Mangrove area reduced by 0.7-2% annually (estimates vary) Releases carbon stored in biomass and soils, prevents further accumulation Forests and REDD Potential for low-cost emission reductions Integral part of climate policy considerations Information on blue carbon accumulating Substantial literature on natural sciences World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011)

6 Is there economic potential for blue REDD? Will benefits from avoided emissions outweigh the costs? Benefits measured using the value of potential offset credits Costs include opportunity cost of land, set up costs, O&M Agricultural gross revenues as land value indicator Spatially fine resolution dataset (Naidoo and Iwamura 2007) calibrated to World Bank (2010) country-estimates of land values Avoided emissions depend on Amount of carbon in an area (literature reviews, meta-analysis of soil C) Risk of land conversion (FAO data ) Carbon released as a result of land conversion (range of emission profiles) All of the above varies by location 9*9 km parcels as our unit of analysis, each parcel described separately Total over 25,000 potential target areas Current protections netted out (UNEP-WCMC data) 5

7 Contributions Overall assessment plus four distinct contributions 1. First global assessment of potential blue carbon offset supply using spatially fine resolution Addresses considerable variation found within country and between regions 2. Estimating location-specific amount of soil carbon in mangroves Meta-analysis of data from a large number of studies (941 obs, 30 countries) First country-specific estimates of soil carbon in mangroves 3. Governance considerations and potential supply of carbon offsets Global and regional supply under governance effectiveness constraints 4. Biodiversity co-benefits from carbon offsets Systematic assessment using IUCN data on species ranges Murray et al. (2010) provides the closest similar Assessment Uses country and global level information Complementary in the approach and results 6

8 Mangroves 7

9 Sea Grasses 8

10 Mangroves and Sea Grasses 9

11 Mangroves: A Closer Look Americas 10

12 Bahamas, Cuba 11

13 Bahamas Close-up 12

14 Mangrove Bahamas Areas Close-up in Bahamas II 13

15 South Florida 14

16 SE Asia, Oceania 15

17 Borneo 16

18 Borneo: Protected Areas 17

19 Thousands Global Area of Blue Carbon Habitats (1000s km 2 ) Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses 18

20 Top Countries Indonesia Australia Mexico Nigeria United States Brazil Cuba Guinea-Bissau Saudi Arabia Philippines 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Mangrove Seagrass Percentage of Global of Total 19

21 Carbon Stock per Area (tons per hectare) Biomass Soil Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses 20

22 Mangroves Are Especially Carbon Rich Forests Source: Donato et al. 2011, Nature Geoscience April 3,

23 Global Blue Carbon Stock (billions of tons) Biomass Soil Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses 22

24 Global Emissions (millions tons C, annually) Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses Note: Global emissions from deforestation about 1.2 Pg yr -1 (van der Werf et a. 2009) 23

25 Mangrove Area, Carbon, and Current Protections Globally Annual Losses Mangroves, km 2 139,170 km 2 1,009 km 2 Total carbon pool 7 Pg C 26.5 mill t C Total carbon at risk, on average Current protections Carbon in protected areas 291 t ha t ha ,767 ha 187 million tons 4,500 ha (avoided losses) 1.2 million tons (emissions avoided) 24

26 Mangrove Carbon Stock, by Country 25

27 Emissions from Mangrove Loss 26

28 Marginal Cost of Preserving Mangrove Carbon Low Central High 20 $/ton of CO 2 15 Range of 2011 ETS prices CO x , million of tons 27

29 Global and Regional Supply 28

30 Global and Regional Supply 30 Global 30 Americas and Caribbean $/ton of CO x x Africa and Middle East 30 Asia and Oceania $/ton of CO CO x , million of tons CO x , million of tons 29

31 Governance Effectiveness 30

32 Blue Carbon Supply and Governance Effectiveness 30 Global: With TAE 30 Americas and Caribbean 25 Top 50 Top 90 All 25 $/ton of CO x x Africa and Middle East 30 Asia and Oceania $/ton of CO CO x , million of tons CO x , million of tons 31

33 Biodiversity: Mangroves 32

34 Biodiversity: Other species in mangrove areas 1. Birds 2. Endangered Birds 3. Amphibians 4. Reptiles 33

35 Difference in budget ($ millions) Biodiversity Focused Targeting Approaches: Estimated Additional Costs Mangrove Biodiversity Endgangered Birds Uniform Carbon per ton x

36 Blue Carbon and Climate Policy Frameworks International Agreements (UNFCCC) Conversations forming but notable presence not yet established REDD could provide a basic framework (some modifications needed) Basic research needed to help gain a better understanding Bilateral Agreements More flexible than UNFCCC (e.g. Norway-Indonesia arrangement includes not only forests but also peatlands) Regional/State Programs EU ETS accepts CDM/JI offset credits; remains generally skeptical towards land use based offset (not included until after 2020) RGGI allows afforestation credits but only in the member states California AB 32 forests defined broadly enough to include mangroves, but credits must be in the US bilateral agreements to developed offsets could include blue carbon (Chiapas, Mexico) Similar to other programs, sea grasses and salt marshes a more distant possibility 35

37 Basic data needs Further Research Needs Emission profile after disturbance (all blue carbon systems) Total area, geographic distribution (salt marshes) Loss/disturbance rates (all blue carbon systems, especially salt marshes and sea grasses) Opportunity cost of preservation (non-agricultural uses) Regional and local assessments Reduce data uncertainties Better understand conservation, development, co-benefit options Other ecosystem services Carbon preservation just one valuable ecosystem service For example, mangroves are important to 36

38 Birds 37

39 Fish 38

40 Other species 39

41 People 40

42 Forthcoming RFF report Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from the Degradation and Development of Coastal Ecosystems For more information: Juha Siikamäki Resources for the Future Tel