All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast

Transcription

1 All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast Henry Phillips Irish Forestry Show, Stradbally 10 th May 2013

2 Outline Forest Sector Statistics Area, Species, Ownership Economic Roundwood Production Forecast Data sources Basic methodology Main results Factors which influence supply + assumptions Estimate of Potential Wood Energy Availability Factors which influence availability + assumptions

3 Forest Sector Area = 750,000 ha (11%) Private = 47% Employment = 12,000 Value to Economy = 2.2 billion Modern Sawmilling Sector Export Panels and Sawnwood Provides Range of Environmental Services

4 Why an All Ireland Forecast? Last All Ireland forecast was in 2001 Need to plan at an All Ireland level Confusion regarding different sources

5 Data Sources Private Sector Forecast (2009) Modified to reflect access + harvestability Coillte Forecast 2011 Access + protected areas Northern Ireland Forest Service Forecast Amended to provide standard size assortments

6 Forecast Volumes All Ireland Private sector ROI Coillte NIFS Private sector NI By Species Group Spruces Lodgepole Pine Other Conifers By County Coillte + Private ROI By Catchment Private ROI

7 FORECAST Basic Components Resource Data Management Regimes Growth Models Forecast Generator Interface Spatial Attributes Regulatory Framework Forecast Rules + Assumptions Timber Supply Forecast Harvest Areas Species Group Volume Assortments 7

8 Net Realisable Volume All Ireland

9 Forecast Roundwood Production (Net Realisable Volume)

10 Forecast by Size Assortment (Net Realisable Volume)

11 Potential Wood Supply Factors Which Influence Supply 1. Price + Markets 2. Availability of support for road construction 3. Harvesting infrastructure 4. Owners intentions 5. Regulatory framework (e.g. Habitats Directive, Clearfell Area)

12 Private Sector Harvest Areas (ROI)

13 Potential Wood Energy Availability How to Define Wood Energy Assortment 1. Forecast Volume 1. Tip 7cm cm cm cm Traditional Markets Panels, Stake, Pallet, Sawlog Wood Volumes CHP, Domestic Chip, Pellet, Electricity Energy Markets 2. PCRW (Post Consumer Recovered Wood) 3. Processing Residues (Co-products chips, sawdust, bark) 4. Harvesting lop and top

14 Potential Wood Energy Availability (ROI)

15 Potential Wood Energy Availability Factors Driving Demand 1. Global Energy Prices 2. EU Renewables Energy Directive 3. Government Response and Schemes 1. ReHeat programme 2. Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT) 3. Carbon Taxes 4. Societal Values

16 Concluding Remarks 1) Ability to forecast roundwood volumes is improving 2) Now have an agreed All Ireland approach 3) Coillte will remain the dominant supplier and user of small sized roundwood 4) Possible to provide one off forecasts on request basis 5) Private sector volumes will remain challenging

17 All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast Thank You

18 Accessibility of Private Plantations (ROI) Distance National National Third Fourth Regional to Road Primary Secondary Class Class NA Total % Area 5 1,497 3,750 15,390 81,457 53, , ,820 7,823 4,925 15, ,234 3,721 5,028 10, ,355 7,615 14, ,762 6,901 14, ,088 4,894 6,497 12, ,513 5,526 10, ,141 4,871 9, ,362 5,069 9, ,932 3,929 7, ,399 3,948 6, ,346 3,239 5, ,484 2,953 4, ,252 2,292 3, ,113 1,742 3, ,456 20, Total 2,952 6,372 24, , ,000 20, , % Total

19 Supply Demand Balance Republic Only Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand

20 Supply Demand Balance (All Ireland) Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand

21 Forecast Roundwood Production (Net Realisable Volume) Wicklow Wexford Westmeath Waterford Tipperary Sligo Roscommon Offaly Monaghan Meath Mayo Louth Longford Limerick Leitrim Laois Kilkenny Kildare Kerry Galway Dublin Donegal Cork Clare Cavan Carlow Private Coillte - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000