HOW SYSTEM THINKING APPROACHES AND THE NOTION OF ENERGY METABOLISM OF URBAN SOCIOECONOMIC SECTORS CAN INFORM ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICIES

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1 2/26/ HOW SYSTEM THINKING APPROACHES AND THE NOTION OF ENERGY METABOLISM OF URBAN SOCIOECONOMIC SECTORS CAN INFORM ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICIES Brian D. Fath Professor, Biology Department, Towson University, USA Research Scholar and YSSP Scientific Coordinator IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

2 2/26/ Outline 1) Complex Adaptive Systems 2) Networks 3) Resilience and the Adaptive Cycle 4) Cities as complex systems 5) Urban Metabolism

3 2/26/ General Systems Theory All systems possess four properties: 1) wholeness and order (the systemic or state property, "S") 2) intra- and inter-systemic hierarchies (the holon property, "H") 3) adaptive self-stabilization (system cybernetics I) 4) adaptive self-organization (system cybernetics II) (cybernetics being the basis of "A"). Complex Adaptive Hierarchical Systems (CAHSystems)

4 2/26/ The ORDER in Complexity changes our view of appropriate methods

5 2/26/ Why networks are important Analyzing the system can help avoid unwanted or unexpected consequences. If everything is connected to everything else, then how can we ever know anything?

6 2/26/ Ecological Food Web

7 2/26/ z 1 = Oyster Reef Model Weighted, directed graph y 1 = Filter Feeders x 1 = f 21 = f 61 = f 26 = Predators x 6 = f 65 = y 6 = y 2 = Deposited Detritus x 2 = f 25 = f 52 = f 53 = Deposit Feeders x 5 = y 5 = f 32 = f 24 = f 42 = f 54 = y 3 = Microbiota Meiofauna y 4 = x 3 = x 4 = f 43 = Dame and Patten 1981 flow is in kcal/(day m 2 ), storage in kcal/m 2

8 Ecological Network Analysis Flow Analysis (g ij = f ij /T j ) identifies flow intensities along indirect pathways Path Analysis a ij enumerates number of pathways in a network Storage Analysis (c ij = f ij /x j ) identifies storage intensities along indirect pathways Utility Analysis (d ij = (f ij f ji )/T i ) identifies utility intensities along indirect pathways

9 Propagation of network indirect effects Flow: N = I + G + G 2 + G 3 + G 4 + Storage: Q = I + P + P 2 + P 3 + P 4 + Utility: U = I + D + D 2 + D 3 + D 4 + integral = initial + direct + input indirect Key findings: Quantify input and output flow Indirect flows > direct flows Flows are well mixed Mutualistic relations dominate

10 Orientor 2/26/ Adaptive Cycle: Holling s 4-stage model of ecosystem dynamics rs.resalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/4box-adaptive-cycle.gif

11 2/26/ Adaptive Cycle - reoriented K α Ω r Burkhard et al. 2011

12 2/26/ Benefits of collapse Schumpeter labeled the collapse, creative destruction, since it allowed for new configurations and innovation opportunities

13 2/26/ r Developmental potential α Ω K Connectedness Developmental opportunities result from the collapse

14 ecosystem indicator 2/26/ number of connections Long-term succession of ecosystems: small-scale disturbances may support the development of the overall system.

15 2/26/2015 Urban Metabolism and networks Cities as complex systems Urban planning is a problem of handling organized complexity Jane Jacobs, 1961 Many interacting parts, fine grained, local interactions, emergent properties.

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17 2/26/ Chicago as a CAS Chicago Pop. growth , , ,000, ,000,000 Fire 1871 the rebuilding that began almost immediately spurred Chicago's development into one of the most populous and economically important American and international cities

18 2/26/ Other urban examples and the responses: San Francisco Earthquake 1906 Hurricane Katrina 2005 Oil shock - Suburban Sprawl 21 st Century

19 2/26/ Urban Ecosystems Amalgamations of Socio-ecological-economic systems Three issues: A. understanding a city as a system B. understanding specific environmental impacts of cities C. understanding a city as a sense of space (human niche)

20 2/26/ A. City as system Inputs: air, water, food, fuels, raw materials, people Outputs: waste heat, finished goods, ideas, wastewater, solid wastes, air pollutants

21 2/26/ autocatalytic loops in the biosphere and an economy

22 2/26/ B. Impacts on Environment Loss of habitat Impervious surface increase Alter biogeochemical cycles Water - increases runoff & flooding (faster & higher peak) Nitrogen - air pollution (smog) Phosphorus - water pollution (runoff, wastewater) Sulfur - air pollution (acid rain) Carbon - GHG emissions Microclimate changes Transportation requirements

23 2/26/ C. Built Environment - We define our space (landscape): Space defines us Places of quality and character need a successful definition of space Quality of life = quality of public spaces

24 2/26/ Jan Gehl Cities for People Lively Safe Sustainable Healthy Humans: A linear, frontal, horizontal mammal walking at max 5km/h

25 2/26/ Lively More social contact with well-designed public spaces; walking, biking, public transit, chance encounters A city s greatest attraction: People People come where people are

26 2/26/ Safety More eyes on the street Fewer auto accidents

27 2/26/ Sustainable Green mobility Fewer emissions Less noise A good transportation system minimizes unnecessary transportation; and it offers change of speed and mode to fit a diversity of human purposes. p. 57. Marshall 2000

28 2/26/ Healthy Exercise integrated into daily routines Cleaner air Greener access

29 2/26/ Christopher Alexander - A Pattern Language

30 2/26/ Nature of Order - Alexander

31 2/26/ Key feature is forming and maintaining self-sustaining cycles

32 2/26/ Ecological Structure and Function

33 2/26/ Quantitative analysis of urban metabolism and health

34 2/26/ Urban Metabolism: Case study of Four Chinese Cities Beijing Tianjin Shanghai Chongqing Zhang et al Ecol. Model

35 2/26/ Primary energy Input Output Input Output Energy exploitation sector Loss Input Primary energy Output Byproduct resource recovery Byproduct resource recovery Energy transformation sector Loss Byproduct resource recovery Byproduct resource recovery Secondary energy Secondary energy Byproduct resource recovery Industrial sector Loss Output Living sector Primary energy Input Loss Conceptual model of urban energy metabolic processes

36 2/26/ z 1 Energy exploi tat ion sector i=1 y 1 f 21 f 31 z 2 y 2 Energy transformation sector i=2 f 41 f 32 z 3 Industrial sector i=3 f 25 f 42 f52 f 53 f 35 z 4 Living sector i=4 f 54 Recovery i=5 Ecological network of urban energy metabolism

37 2/26/ Direct flows among sectors (units: 10 7 t standard coal eq.) Beijing (F B ) Shanghai (F S ) Tianjin (F T ) Chongqing (F C )

38 2/26/ Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Chongqing Ecological structure of the urban energy metabolic system. Sectors: 1 energy exploitation; 2 energy transformation; 3 industrial; 4 household; 5 recovery.

39 2/26/ Water network model of Beijing

40 2/26/ Trophic water structure of Beijing Holistic interactions between sectors

41 2/26/ Urban Ecosystem Health using energybased measurements

42 2/26/ Overall health status from Chinese case studies

43 2/26/ Conclusions Cities depend on exogenous energy resources Urban trophic structure mostly inverted Additional energy recovery systems needed Households and industry always in competition for final demand energy Energy efficiency improvements can help but more importantly are how the energy networks are formed and maintained.

44 2/26/ Take Home It may be that all self-sustaining systems are reciprocating. p Jane Jacobs The Economy of Cities

45 2/26/ THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION