Life-cycle models for the diverse and plastic Oncorhynchus mykiss: challenges and opportunities

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1 Life-cycle models for the diverse and plastic Oncorhynchus mykiss: challenges and opportunities Neala Kendall *, Rich Zabel, and Tom Cooney * Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science

2 Oncorhynchus mykiss life history tactics and population dynamics Life history strategies influenced by environmental and anthropogenic factors Life-cycle models used to better understand strategies, evaluate population dynamics spatially and temporally Jonny Armstrong John McMillan

3 Purpose of a life-cycle model Questions to answer using the model: Is anadromy expected to persist into the future? Under what environmental conditions will O. mykiss be resident or anadromous? What life history stages represent population bottlenecks? What patterns of anadromy and residency will we see given different freshwater habitat mitigation actions?

4 O. mykiss life cycle models Immature fish Mature fish Mature fish Freshwater Decision to smolt Growth Maturing fish Maturation Mature fish Spawning Immature fish Migration to ocean as steelhead trout Fishing and natural mortality Mortality Spawning migration Mature fish Ocean Growth Maturing fish Maturation Mature fish Decision to return & spawn Immature fish Natural mortality Natural mortality Ocean migration Natural mortality Modified from Theriault et al. 2008

5 Existing models to help 1. Yakima River, WA anadromous/resident O. mykiss abundance and reproductive success lifecycle models (I. Courter & C. Frederiksen et al.) 2. Anadromy/residency and smolt age decision for O. mykiss (originally developed for CA populations; Satterthwaite et al. 2009, 2010) 3. Chinook and O. mykiss life-cycle matrix models for Interior Columbia River basin (but only anadromous component; ICTRT and Zabel 2007)

6 Yakima River O. mykiss life-cycle models Use freshwater food supply, flow, and temperature to predict fish growth, survival, capacity, and reproductive success by life history tactic Territory Size (competition) Marine Survival Fry Growth (bioenergetics) Body Size Abundance Capacity Survival Cross-Ecotype Exchange Fecundity Flow Habitat Area (PHABSIM & 2D modeling) Freshwater Survival Environmental Conditions Food Supply Temperature Courter et al Anadromous Spawners Reproductive Success Resident Spawners

7 Model predictions Anadromous Resident Courter et al. 2009

8 Anadromy/residency life-cycle model for O. mykiss Based on fish emergence date, freshwater growth, survival, fecundity, and overall fitness Predict maturation/residency and smolt age decision Satterthwaite et al. 2009, 2010 Maturation decision smolting decision

9 Growth rate (mm/day) Model predictions Maturity of age-0 females Predict maturation/ residency and smolt age decision mature wait, smolt at age 0 mature wait, smolt at age 1 Satterthwaite et al. 2009, 2010 Emergence date

10 O. mykiss matrix models for Interior Columbia River basin Steelhead-only life-cycle model Beverton-Holt functions to include density-dependent survival in freshwater Components (adjusted in different scenarios ): Downstream survival (based on hydropower corridor passage) Estuary and early marine survival (based on climate conditions) Later marine survival Harvest, upstream survival Overwinter survival in fw ICTRT and Zabel 2007, Zabel et al. 2013

11 Interior Columbia River basin populations Rapid River (Little Salmon River) Potlatch River Catherine Creek Umatilla River Toppenish Creek Naches River Satus Creek Upper Yakima River Photo: John McMillan

12 spawners.raw[,, 3] Population abundance Example model run Umatilla River fish Years into the future

13 Model predictions (under baseline scenarios) Abundance decreased over time for Yakima River basin and Umatilla River populations Abundance increased over time for Potlatch River, Catherine Creek, & Rapid River populations

14 Model predictions (under varying scenarios) Changes in habitat, upriver survival, and estuary/early ocean conditions resulted in largest spawner abundance changes Changes in habitat resulted in greatest changes in quasi-extinction probability Changes in harvest rates resulted in smaller abundance and extinction probability changes

15 Population abundance after 100 years Population-specific model predictions under various scenarios Umatilla River Estuary and early marine survival Survival through the hydropower corridor Survival through the hydropower corridor Habitat (overwinter/ prespawning survival)

16 Population abundance after 100 years Population-specific model predictions under various scenarios Umatilla River Estuary and early marine survival Estuary and early marine survival Later marine survival Harvest rate

17 Future work Combine ICTRT and Zabel matrix model with Courter & Frederiksen et al. freshwater habitat conditions determinants and Satterthwaite et al. model of anadromy/residency decision Photos: John McMillan

18 Habitat considerations need to be incorporated First establish fish-specific side of the life-cycle model Then incorporate freshwater habitat considerations into model Understand how habitat changes (climate change and human modifications including restoration) may affect abundance and viability

19 Incorporating habitat restoration into the models Develop landscape-to-habitat functional relationships Develop habitat-to-fish relationships Model habitat quality (e.g., flow and temperature) and quantity using landuse and geomorphic characteristics to estimate fish capacity and survival Bartz et al. 2006, Scheuerell et al. 2006, Beechie et al. 2006

20 Acknowledgements National Research Council Postdoctoral Fellowship Program Interior Columbia TRT life-cycle modeling group Ian Courter (Mt. Hood Consulting), Chris Frederiksen (Yakama Nation), Ethan Crawford (WDFW), ODFW La Grande office, Brett Bowersox (IDFG), and others who supplied data NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center WDFW, especially Erik Neatherlin, Jeremy Cram, Andrew Murdoch, and Thomas Buehrens Photo: John McMillan

21 Questions?

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23 Oncorhynchus mykiss: one (two?) cool fish Photo: John McMillan

24 Oncorhynchus mykiss: one (two?) cool fish Very diverse life history including migration tactics ( partial migration ) Valuable recreational and commercial fisheries Many natural populations have declined in abundance and life history diversity over the past century, are ESA listed Photos: Jonny Armstrong

25 Population abundance Population-specific model predictions under various scenarios Umatilla River Estuary and early marine survival Later marine survival Habitat (overwinter/prespawning survival)