T. J. Wojnar Outlook for Energy: A View to th Annual ECC Conference September 2018 #

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1 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. T. J. Wojnar 50 th Annual ECC Conference September 2018

2 Energy evolution reflects technology, scale & complexity Global primary energy demand Quadrillion BTUs 50 years ago Nuclear/Hydro/Other Renewables Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy demand accelerating Oil surpasses coal to gain #1 share Seatbelts mandated in all new cars Ford Mustang - top seller in the U.S. Boeing revealed the revolutionary 747 HP introduced the 1 st desktop computer Polaroid camera digital imaging pioneer Offshore oil production max water depth 1968: ~400 feet (now ~12,000 feet) U.S. refineries 1968: 282 (now ~135, +65% capacity) U.S. GDP per capita <50% of today s level Source: Smil, Energy Transitions ( )

3 Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 2015 Index 1.00 Norway United States 0.75 China Bangladesh India 0.50 Yemen Nigeria Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates 2015 Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)

4 Global trends continue to evolve Growth from 2016 level Percent x GDP +25% demand +1.7 billion people +10% CO 2 emissions -45% CO 2 intensity

5 Global efficiency limits demand growth Energy demand Quadrillion BTUs Share of primary energy demand by region Share of Quadrillion BTUs Other Non-OECD Energy savings Rest of World Other AP Non-OECD India China India China Other OECD Europe OECD OECD United States

6 Policy and consumer choices impact demand Electric vehicles grow rapidly Million cars Liquids demand remains resilient MBDOE Total liquids demand Plug-in hybrids Battery electrics Light-duty liquids demand Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base Outlook

7 Hypothetical electric vehicle sensitivity Liquids demand by sector MBDOE Energy-related CO 2 emissions Billion tonnes Light duty transportation Global emissions Outlook Sensitivity Sensitivity liquids demand Commercial transportation Chemicals Power generation Other industrial Power generation / Residential / Commercial Light duty transportation

8 Electricity demand grows and sources shift Electricity sources shift Thousand TWh Wind / Solar share of delivered electricity Share of TWh Solar capacity Wind capacity Other renewables Wind/Solar ' Nuclear Gas '16 Coal Oil North America Europe Asia Pacific Middle East Africa World

9 Energy-related CO 2 emissions Energy-related CO 2 emissions by sector Billion tonnes Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Billion tonnes Residential/Commercial Industrial Assessed Baseline scenarios Electricity generation 2018 Outlook for Energy Assessed 2 o C scenarios Transportation Baseline and 2 o C scenarios based on Stanford EMF27 full technology scenarios EMF27-FT cases include CO 2 emissions from energy and industrial processes

10 Assessed 2 o C Scenarios: 2040 global energy demand 2040 Global demand by model and energy type Exajoules Non-bio renewables Bioenergy Bioenergy w/ CCS Nuclear Coal Coal w/ CCS Gas Gas w/ CCS Oil Oil w/ CCS Based on EMF27 full technology / 450 ppm scenarios (Assessed 2 o C Scenarios) EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from:

11 Significant investments needed to meet demand Global liquids supply MBDOE High demand based Assessed 2 o C Scenarios 78 Average demand based on Assessed 2 o C Scenarios* Low demand based on Assessed 2 o C Scenarios Supply without investment Excludes biofuels *Average demand is based on the average of the Assessed 2 o C Scenarios oil and natural gas growth rates

12 Global Demand 2040 by fuel Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr % 0.9% % -0.1% 1.6% Hydro / Geothermal Solar / Wind / Biofuels Biomass Nuclear

13 Technology key to reducing societal costs of 2 o C pathway Costs borne by society to lower GHG emissions High policy costs Hypothetical ~2 o C policy / technology frontier Technology advances likely to reduce costs of policies on society Low policy costs Existing Advances Breakthrough (e.g. natural gas, wind, solar) (e.g. negative emissions, storage, CCS, advanced biofuels) Technology advancement Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only

14 Unique R&D model Science-based fundamentals Process Technology Catalyst, low-emission processing, scale-up Upstream Research Efficient resource capture, development and production Chemicals Technology Advantaged feedstocks, improved processes and products A history of innovation Ultra-deepwater development Digital simulator High octane gasoline Specialty plastics Synthetic catalyst Extendedreach drilling Lithium batteries Tire rubber

15 Technology is the foundation for the future Near-term Advantaged technology delivery Biofuels Mid-term Industrial processes with lower emissions Long-term Biofuels, CCS Improved Resource Capture Carbon Capture Process Intensification Advanced Hydrocracking

16 Low emissions transportation with advanced biofuels Today s approach: Our research: Small scale, competes with food and water Large scale, global solutions, non-competitive with food and water Near term step: 10,000 BPD by 2025 Sunlight + CO 2 + H 2 O + Photosynthesis = Biofuels 16

17 Energy evolution reflects technology, scale & complexity Global primary energy demand Quadrillion BTUs Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Outlook to 2040: Invest ~$21 trillion in oil and gas, ~$15 trillion in upstream Tight oil, deepwater, oil sands supplies up >100% Hydro Unconventional gas up ~100% Gas Expand wind/solar electricity by ~400% Boost efficiency at 2x pace since 2000 Advance technologies to reduce emissions (e.g. CCS) Other Renewables Nuclear Accelerate adoption of digital enablers Coal to boost productivity and value Oil Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions ( ) Biomass

18 Energy evolution reflects technology, scale & complexity Global primary energy demand Quadrillion BTUs Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Biomass Outlook to 2040: Invest ~$21 trillion in oil and gas, ~$15 trillion in upstream Tight oil, deepwater, oil sands supplies up >100% Unconventional gas up ~100% Expand wind/solar electricity by ~400% Boost efficiency at 2x pace since 2000 Advance technologies to reduce emissions (e.g. CCS) Accelerate adoption of digital enablers to boost productivity and value Source: Smil, Energy Transitions ( )

19 2018 Outlook for Energy Energy matters As the world s population approaches 9 billion people in 2040, we are challenged to help improve living standards everywhere. We expect that progress will be powered by human ingenuity and the energy that helps make better lives possible.

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