Wind Energy Update March Maf Smith Deputy Chief Executive

Transcription

1 Wind Energy Update March 2017 Maf Smith Deputy Chief Executive

2 About RenewableUK UK s leading renewable energy trade association, founded in wind, wave and tidal members. Influence policy development and represent sector in media. Involve members via Forums and Working Groups Lead organiser of conferences, exhibitions, trade delegations, workshops and seminars. Providing industry intelligence via Project Intelligence and on-line Intelligence Hub We work across the four Governments of the UK, with offices in London, Cardiff and Belfast, and a close partnership with our sister organisation Scottish Renewables in Glasgow 2

3 Project Intelligence & online Hub Data used in this presentation comes from RenewableUK s Offshore Wind Project Intelligence with Global Offshore analysis Onshore Wind Project Intelligence with UK Onshore analysis Marine Energy Project Intelligence with UK wave and tidal analysis ReneawbleUK s new online Project Intelligence Hub is also searchable on contract and project basis, tracking market to date and forecasting ahead 3

4 Introduction Contribution of wind energy today Onshore wind intelligence & outlook Offshore wind intelligence & outlook The emerging policy landscape

5 Wind Energy key facts and figures Renewable electricity is now delivering 25% of GB power needs Wind delivering 11.5% of GB power needs, and now outperforming coal power.

6 Onshore Wind Onshore wind now demonstrably the cheapest option for new power generation, with rapid cost reduction Onshore wind also enjoys high UK content currently at 67% - and high local content RenewableUK (2015)

7 Onshore wind learning rates IRENA (2017) The Power to Change: Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025.

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9 Onshore s onward march Wind and solar keep getting cheaper. While already competitive in a number of countries today without policy support, the cost of onshore wind is expected to drop 41% by As new wind and solar capacity is added worldwide, generation using these technologies rises ninefold to 10,591TWh by 2040, and to 30% of the global total, from 5% in By 2040, Germany, Mexico, the UK and Australia all have average wind and solar penetration of more than 50%. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2016) New Energy Outlook

10 Onshore delivery

11 Onshore delivery Source: RenewableUK Onshore Wind Project Intelligence

12 Onshore delivery Source: RenewableUK Onshore Wind Project Intelligence

13 Onshore delivery Source: RenewableUK Onshore Wind Project Intelligence

14 The Growth of Offshore Wind 1 4

15 UK Offshore Wind Costs Source KPMG analysis, Cost Reduction Monitoring Framework: Quantitative assessment report January

16 CfD Auction Technology CfD Strick Price ( MWh) for projects commissioning in 2021/22 CfD Strike Price ( MWh) for projects commissioning in 2022/23 Offshore Wind Advanced Conversion Technologies (with or without CHP) Anaerobic Digestion (with or without CHP) (>5MW) Dedicated Biomass with CHP Wave Tidal Stream

17 European Offshore Wind Costs 17

18 Opportunities in Offshore Wind 18

19 Operational & New-Build Portfolio UK Project Owners UK Operational Portfolio by Owner Share (%) UK New-Build Portfolio by Owner Share (%) ScottishPower 4% Statoil 5% SSE 7% SWM 3% Vattenfall 10% Other DONG Energy Other 17% SDIC Power DONG 19% 9% 3% Energy 26% GIB 10% Innogy 12% E.ON 13% Innogy 6% Fluor 6% Statoil 9% EDPR 3% ScottishPower 12% Vattenfall 13% SSE 13% Source: RenewableUK Offshore Wind Project Intelligence 19

20 Operational & New-Build Portfolio Europe Europe Operational Portfolio by Country (MW) Europe New-Build Portfolio by Country (MW) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 5,098 3, , ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 29,388 21,234 4,100 2,988 1,776 1,355 3,305 2,000 10, Source: RenewableUK Offshore Wind Project Intelligence 20

21 Total Portfolio Non-European MW 18,000 16,000 14,000 4,919 1, ,000 10,000 8,000 7,430 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 China USA Taiwan India Japan Canada South Korea Source: RenewableUK Offshore Wind Project Intelligence 21

22 Commissioning Forecast Europe 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 UK Germany Netherlands France Denmark Belgium Other Cumulative Source: RenewableUK Offshore Wind Project Intelligence 22

23 In Conclusion The future progress of wind energy is seen as inevitable within global market UK Government focus is on Industrial Strategy, securing economic opportunities of low carbon generation, while keeping costs down for energy consumers. Wind plays well to both these requirements. Onshore wind costs now rival those of traditional alternatives, while avoiding carbon impacts and fuel imports UK Government committed to end subsidy and changed English planning laws. Future schemes will be built without subsidy, but there is strong political support for this in Scotland, with interest in Wales and NI High UK content and shift of market to Scotland Offshore wind costs now competitive with new nuclear and in-line to be competitive with new gas in mid 2020s Sector has a strong pipeline and expectations around delivery of UK supply chain and ongoing cost reduction Supply chain investments means UK content increasing rapidly, with investments focused in coastal and manufacturing communities

24 In Conclusion The future progress of wind energy is seen as inevitable within global market UK Government focus is on Industrial Strategy, securing economic opportunities of low carbon generation, while keeping costs down for energy consumers. Wind plays well to both these requirements. Onshore wind costs now rival those of traditional alternatives, while avoiding carbon impacts and fuel imports UK Government committed to end subsidy and changed English planning laws. Future schemes will be built without subsidy, but there is strong political support for this in Scotland, with interest in Wales and NI High UK content and shift of market to Scotland Offshore wind costs now competitive with new nuclear and in-line to be competitive with new gas in mid 2020s Sector has a strong pipeline and expectations around delivery of UK supply chain and ongoing cost reduction Supply chain investments means UK content increasing rapidly, with investments focused in coastal and manufacturing communities

25 In Conclusion The future progress of wind energy is seen as inevitable within global market UK Government focus is on Industrial Strategy, securing economic opportunities of low carbon generation, while keeping costs down for energy consumers. Wind plays well to both these requirements. Onshore wind costs now rival those of traditional alternatives, while avoiding carbon impacts and fuel imports UK Government committed to end subsidy and changed English planning laws. Future schemes will be built without subsidy, but there is strong political support for this in Scotland, with interest in Wales and NI High UK content and shift of market to Scotland Offshore wind costs now competitive with new nuclear and in-line to be competitive with new gas in mid 2020s Sector has a strong pipeline and expectations around delivery of UK supply chain and ongoing cost reduction Supply chain investments means UK content increasing rapidly, with investments focused in coastal and manufacturing communities

26 In Conclusion The future progress of wind energy is seen as inevitable within global market UK Government focus is on Industrial Strategy, securing economic opportunities of low carbon generation, while keeping costs down for energy consumers. Wind plays well to both these requirements. Onshore wind costs now rival those of traditional alternatives, while avoiding carbon impacts and fuel imports UK Government committed to end subsidy and changed English planning laws. Future schemes will be built without subsidy, but there is strong political support for this in Scotland, with interest in Wales and NI High UK content and shift of market to Scotland Offshore wind costs now competitive with new nuclear and in-line to be competitive with new gas in mid 2020s Sector has a strong pipeline and expectations around delivery of UK supply chain and ongoing cost reduction Supply chain investments means UK content increasing rapidly, with investments focused in coastal and manufacturing communities

27 Maf Smith Deputy Chief Executive