House RES and Expanded Clean. Costs

Transcription

1 House RES and Expanded Clean Energy Scenarios: Benefits and Costs Bill Prindle Deputy Director American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy (ACEEE) EESI Briefing November 1, 2007

2 Outline Project Overview Methodology Results Electricity sales and capacity Wholesale electricity price impacts CO2 emissions reductions Net customer electric bill savings Net job creation

3 Project Overview ACEEE Analysis of Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) included in the August House energy bill (H.R. 3221) Given that several states are already pursuing aggressive targets, we also include more aggressive RES-EERS scenarios We also frame RES-EERS scenarios in a climate policy context

4 States with EERS and dresa Activity it State RPS State EERS Note: New Jersey and New York have pending EERS requirements. Source: ACEEE

5 Methodology ACEEE Scenario development Three scenarios: House RES (11% renewables, 4% efficiency) 10% electricity efficiency + 5% natural gas (We do not present all of these results here) A RES-EERS: separate 15% efficiency + 15% renewables Two frameworks: Business-as-usual reference case without federal climate policy Climate policy framework (representative Bingaman-Specter Bill) ICF Consulting ran its Integrated Planning Model (IPM) Electric sector impacts of multiple scenarios Policy compliance costs DEEPER macro-economic model Jobs impacts

6 Scenario Overview Nominal Renewable and Efficiency Targets House RES 10% EE Scenario (Scenario 1) (RE,EE) (Scenario 2) (EE) (Scenario 3) (RE,EE) %,1.8% 6% 4.8%,4.8% %,4% 10% 10%,10% %,4% 10% 15%,15%

7 Results House RES House RES (with 2030 BAU reference) 22 TWh reduction in electricity usage (~.5%) 3% reduction in CO2 emissions i by ,000 MW of avoided powerplants (~4.5%) House RES In 2030 Climate Policy Framework 246 TWh reduction in electricity usage (~4.5%) 22% reduction in CO2 emissions 32,000 MW of avoided powerplants (~9%)

8 Results Scenario Scenario (with 2030 BAU reference) 507 TWh reduction in electricity usage (~9%) 18% reduction in CO2 emissions by ,000 MW of capacity savings by 2030 (~20%) in 2030 Climate Policy Framework 699 TWh reduction in electricity usage (~13%) 18% reduction CO2 emissions by ,000 MW of capacity savings by 2030 (30%)

9 Electricity Load (GWh) 7,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 Loa ad (Gwh) 4,000,000 3,000,000 Loa ad (Gwh) 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 Base CaseC Base Case 1,000,000 Scenario 1 1,000,000 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario Business-as-usual Climate Framework

10 Capacity Addition Impacts 500 Coal Gas 450 Nuclear Biomass Wind Other Renewables Coal Nuclear Wind Gas Biomass Other Renewables GW 250 GW Base Case Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 - Base Case Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Business-as-usual Climate Framework

11 New Capacity Needs in Business-as- Usual and Climate Policy Frameworks ity Additions by 2030 (M MW) Cum mulative Insta alled Capac 360, , , , ,000 House Bill RES BAU Climate Policy "15-15" Scenario

12 Wholesale Electricity Price Impacts $75.00 Wholes sale "Firm" Electricity Pr rices (2006$/M MWh) $70.00 $65.00 $60.00 $55.00 $ $45.00 Business as Usual House Bill RES "15-15" Scenario $ Year

13 Wholesale Electricity Price Impacts in Climate Framework Wholesale Electricity Pr rices (2006$ per MWh) $75.00 $70.00 $65.00 $60.00 $55.00 $ $45.00 $40.00 Climate Framework House Bill RES in Climate Framework "15-15" Scenario in Climate Framework Year

14 Net Customer Bill Impacts House RES: $36 billion through : $417 billion through 2030 These are in the business-as-usual framework Climate-policy framework savings TBD expected to be larger

15 2030 Annual CO2 Emissions Reductions (MMT) CO2 Wmis ssions Red ductions in 2030 (MM MT) 1,400 1,200 1, House Bill RES "15-15" Scenario House Bill RES in Climate Framework "15-15" Scenario in Climate Framework

16 Net Job Creation 250, , , ,000 House RES Scenario 50,000 0 (50,000) 000)

17 Regional Benefits Southeast House RES: 3,000 MW of avoided coal capacity Wholesale prices fall $0.57 per MWh ,000 MW of avoided coal/gas capacity Wholesale l prices fall $3 per MWh

18 Regional Benefits Midwest House RES: 1,300 MW of avoided d coal capacity Wholesale prices fall slightly ,500 MW of avoided coal/gas capacity Wholesale prices fall slightly

19 Summary House RES reduces electricity prices and bills, avoids powerplants, creates jobs, and saves carbon House RES benefits are moderate, because states are already moving on these policies More aggressive RES-EERS EERS policies offer even greater benefits RES-EERS policies generate greatest benefits in a climate policy framework RES-EERS policies should be the cornerstone of any U.S. energy or climate legislation