Towards Subsidy Free Fuel Cells

Transcription

1 Alternative energy products for global markets Towards Subsidy Free Fuel Cells Mark Selby, 17 th December

2 Outline An Update on Ceres Power Why? Where? Who? What? How? 3

3 WHY? 4

4 Why..The Bigger Picture Global Energy demand to increase by 56% by 2040 Fossil fuels continue to supply 80 % of world energy Shale gas discoveries- surplus of natural gas in North America Natural gas only fossil fuel growing from 21 % 2010 to 25 % of world energy mix (IEA World Energy Outlook) Energy security North America grid outages costing US$150bn / year Data centres now accounting for 2% of global energy demand Japan/Korea - LNG import dependency, prices increasing Energy supply is tightening Fukushima disaster, closure of nuclear plants in Japan Nuclear scandal in Korea threatens reliance on nuclear Nuclear policy means renewed focus on renewables in Germany Growing market for low carbon, high efficiency technologies to generate power 5

5 Why Huge growing market opportunity Huge stationary market opportunity Stationary Fuel Cells Market Growth 1 Japan 28,000 m CHP units sold 2012 Source:1 Pike Research, SBI, US DOE US market buying MWs SOFC for prime power Stationary Power Fuel Cell annual revenues estimated to reach $14 to $31 Bn over next 10 to 20 years (US DOE) 6

6 WHO/WHERE? 7

7 Who & Where? Top 10 Fuel Cell Patent filings GM Honda Samsung Toyota UTC Nissan Ballard Plug Power Panasonic Delphi $ 1 billion funding (08 12) Plans for 2 million FCEVs (Toyota/Honda) 28,000 residential FC s deployed $590 m funding (04 11) Plans to produce 20 % of world shipments Create 560,000 Jobs in Korea $1.2 Billion funding (07-16) Projections >22,000 small fuel cells shipped Focus on prime/mission critical power 675,000 new jobs in US by 2035 Global OEM s are driver of Fuel Cell Development 8

8 WHAT? 9

9 The Steel Cell Thin steel substrate with even thinner layers of active SOFC materials coated on top AIR FUEL Cathode Layer Stainless Steel Substrate ELECTRICITY Low temperature electrolyte (ceria) enables operation at <600 o C Ceria Electrolyte Layer Anode Layer Key advantages: Low cost cells Compact, lightweight design Mechanically tough Simple & reliable stack sealing Enables low cost balance of plant 10

10 The Steel Cell Thin steel substrate with even thinner layers of active SOFC materials coated on top AIR FUEL Cathode Layer Stainless Steel Substrate ELECTRICITY Low temperature electrolyte (ceria) enables operation at <600 o C Ceria Electrolyte Layer Anode Layer Key advantages: Low cost cells Compact, lightweight design Mechanically tough Simple & reliable stack sealing Enables low cost balance of plant 11

11 The Art of Good Enough HOW? 12

12 How What does the Mass Market need? <$5,000 price for 1kW appliance trend to <$500 / kw stack cost >50% gross efficiency achieved Enables different applications Manufacturing process similar to PV/PCB industry Low Cost Efficiency >600 on-off cycles E-stop tolerant Robustness Global Partners Japan/Korea mchp Germany/UK Consistent for 10 years operation US larger power 13

13 Ferritic stainless sheet metal is the dominant cost driver Cost Element Key direct cost drivers for a 1kW Steel Cell Stack Net Content per kw Realistic volume cost ranges Potential Net Cost per kw Ceres Direct Cost Projections (Externally Reviewed) Ferritic Stainless Steel ~10 kg (>90%) $10-20 /kg $100 - $200 Ceramic Powders ~0.35 kg $45-90 /kg $15 - $30 Direct Labour ~1 hr $25-40 /hour $25 - $40 * Includes power, materials, direct labour, yield losses Cost drivers suggest that $500 per kw stack is achievable in volume 14

14 Ferritic stainless sheet metal is the dominant cost driver Key direct cost drivers for a 1kW Steel Cell Stack Ceres Direct Cost Projections (Externally Reviewed) Direct Labour 14% Ceramic Powders 11% Ferritic Stainless Steel 75% * Includes power, materials, direct labour, yield losses Cost drivers suggest that $500 per kw stack is achievable in volume 15

15 Efficiency is driven by Application Economics Micro CHP system net electrical efficiency Net system AC efficiency incorporates parasitic losses from balance of plant in power unit CHP Rated Power (W) 1kW stack in fuel cell module gross efficiency Stack Size (Repeat Units) Gross DC Electrical Efficiency* (LHV%) * *Achieved on Ceres FCM on test stand Low Steel Cell cost enables option to add cells to stacks to increase efficiency Can achieve net efficiency of 50% opportunity for other applications 16

16 Robustness : Demonstrated via thermal cycling tests on 1kW stacks Thermal cycling of 1kW stack from 100 C to 600 C, ~60 minutes heat-up and ~90 minutes cool-down repeated continuously 100 Stack Power (%) Target for 10 years residential use Test: : Thermal Cycles Demonstrating robustness to thermal cycling 17

17 Short stacks survive unplanned shutdowns (E-stops) The Test immediate cut-off of fuel and air at operating temperature, cool down and repeat thermal cycle (100 o C to 600 o C) layer short stacks Stack Power (%) Test : 2013 Target for 10 years residential use Stack power measurements showing 95% power retention and no loss of cell integrity Stack-1302 Stack-1317 Stack-1323 Stack EStop Cycles Multiple stacks demonstrating robustness to harshest cycling challenge possible: Emergency Stops (60 E-stops) 18

18 to create Value? HOW 19

19 How we create value : Global partners Technology Provider Appliance Developer and Manufacturer Raw Materials Cells Stack Module BOP System Marketing Service Targeting $500 / kw cost OEM Partners OEM Partners / Utilities 20

20 First major commercial deal under new strategy South Korea is one of the largest domestic boiler markets in the world with 1 million units sold per annum Generous government grants available for domestic micro CHP and Korean Government has launched a 1 million green homes by 2020 program. New commercial and technical partnership with KD Navien Co. Ltd. ('KDN ) signed on 22 July 2013 The contract A 12 month technology assessment agreement Includes trialling the Ceres technology in Seoul Enables design of a mass market micro-chp product Intent to enter into a licensing agreement for the manufacture and distribution of CHP products US$300m revenues, 800 employees The number 1 boiler in South Korea for 25 years > 1m boiler manufacture capacity US$100m exports to over 30 countries worldwide 61% of North American market (instantaneous condensing gas water heaters) 21

21 Outlook Focus on commercial partners in South Korea, Japan, USA. Industrialise and further refine technology Revenue growth through next stages of commercial partnerships Explore new applications for our technology 22

22 Registered Office and Headquarters Ceres Power Limited Viking House Foundry Lane Horsham RH13 5PX United Kingdom Phone: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Web: