Efficient Lighting Potential. Stuart Jeffcott. Expert Consultant to UNEP

Transcription

1 Efficient Lighting Potential Stuart Jeffcott Expert Consultant to UNEP

2 Individual country results forthcoming 2 Detailed Country Lighting Assessments will be published by UNEP in the coming months with information on lamps, energy consumption and savings potential: Projected demand for lighting service Projected electricity consumption and stock of lamps Energy and CO 2 savings potential

3 What are Country Lighting Assessments? 3 A national-level estimate of the energy consumption for lighting Considers all sectors and all end-use technologies Based on private sector data as well as UN Comtrade data and estimates of electricity consumption for lighting A 2015 stock model projects forward to 2030 based on a lighting density demand growth rate, tied to building floor space Technology mix changes over time, including LED Three scenarios Business as usual (BAU) Introduction of MEPS in 2020 (moderate ambition) Introduction of LED only (Best Available Technology - BAT in 2020

4 Thailand: Estimated Stock of Lamps in Thailand total: million lamps

5 Thailand: Electricity Consumption for Lighting in Thailand total: 31 TWh in 2014

6 Thailand: Electricity Consumption for Lighting Converts the 2014 lamp stock and electricity consumption into lumen-hours of lighting service Projects forward demand for lighting service at the same rate as building floorspace Converts lighting service back to electricity consumption according to a change in lighting technologies under the three scenarios, BAU, MEPS and BAT

7 Thailand: Estimated Mix of Light Sources - MEPS introduced in 2020 (MEPS scenario) 7

8 Thailand: Electricity Consumption for Lighting 8

9 CLAs Prepared for the Ten ASEAN Countries 9 Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam

10 Electricity Consumption Forecast for Lighting in ASEAN Ten Countries: 118 TWh in Note: numbers are TWh of electricity consumption 118 TWh

11 Electricity Consumption Forecast for Lighting in ASEAN Ten Countries: 158 TWh in Note: numbers are TWh of electricity consumption 158 TWh

12 ASEAN Electricity Consumption Forecast for Lighting introduction of MEPS and BAT Lighting service (Tlm-hr) grows by 85% BAU electricity growth 35%

13 ASEAN CO 2 Savings Projection for Lighting 13 Policy measures introduced in 2020 MEPS: 68 MT CO 2 savings by 2030 BAT: 211 MT CO 2 savings by 2030

14 Efficacy (lumens/w) Lamp Availability Australia CFL 2014 Cambodia CFL 2014 EU CFL 2014 Indonesia CFL 2014 Lao PR CFL 2014 Philippines CFL 2014 Thailand CFL 2014 USA CFL 2014 Vietnam CFL 2014 Australia LED 2014 EU LED 2014 USA LED Light Output (lumens)

15 In Summary 15 Tremendous opportunity for energy savings through policy measures promoting efficient-lighting The integrated policy approach can accelerate the market transition, bringing more benefits sooner Regional harmonisation will lower costs for manufacturers on testing and compliance reporting Consumers get lower prices for quality products, and have more choice Market surveillance and testing costs can be shared regionally Reduces peak demand, frees capacity and lowers costs

16 How? 16 Issues for consideration tomorrow? Scope: What products/sectors? CFLs, LEDs, Tubes, / Domestic, Commercial, Industrial Better/faster/easier to revise existing regulations or focus on newer products/areas? Test methods and performance requirements? Barriers Institutional structures Responsible agencies nationally? Legislative processes? What lessons from air conditioners to date?