2020 Global Energy Forecasts Latest projections of Enerdata s EnerFuture service. April 2007

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1 2020 Global Energy Forecasts Latest projections of Enerdata s EnerFuture service April 2007

2 Agenda > Results at world level > Results at European level > World CO2 emissions > General hypotheses and Oil price projections

3 Total energy demand growth : China and India are the two main drivers Gtoe ,5 Total consumption growth China India Other Asia USA Latin America CIS EU-25 Others (inc bunkers) 14,9 World energy consumption increases by about 30%. China and India will represent 45% of the world energy growth, total Asia almost two thirds. The Americas account for about a 15% of this growth (8% for both the USA and Latin America). Growth is slow in Europe and the CIS.

4 World energy demand growth by fuel is dominated by gas Gtoe World energy growth by fuel Gas should cover about 31% of the world energy demand growth between 2005 and 2020, and coal 25% and oil 22%. Hydro and nuclear electricity will increase very slowly. The contribution of biomass is fairly important, with 15%. 10 Oil Gas Coal Biomass Others Others : Other renewables, nuclear

5 World energy demand growth by sector : the power sector is the biggest contributor World energy growth by sector Gtoe The power sector represents 38% of the total energy consumption increase by Industry is the second largest contibutor with a 22% increase The residential tertiary sector contributes to 16% of the increase and Transport to 15% 10 Industry Res-Ser-Agr Transport (inc. bunk.) Power Others Others : Coke plants, refineries, oil production, losses

6 World coal consumption : +30% increase up to World coal growth by sector Mtoe The growth in coal consumption is due to Industry (43%) and the Power sector (42%). Coal consumption is very stable in the Residential tertiary sector Industry Res-Ser-Agr Power Other (coke)

7 World oil consumption : +20% increase up to 2020 Mtoe World oil growth by sector Industry Res-Ser-Agr Transport (inc. bunk.) Power Others (transf.) 4790 The oil consumption is increasing in the residential-tertiary sector (+50%, 31% of the total increase), in Transport (+22%, 59% of the total increase) and in the Industry (+15%, 16% of the total increase). It is decreasing for electricity generation (-12%)

8 World gas consumption : +45% increase up to 2020 World gas growth by sector The gas consumption is increasing dramaticaly at world level. Mtoe Industry Res-Ser-Agr Power Others (transf., losses) The power sector represents 44% of this total increase, followed by the residential-tertiary sector (23%) and the industry sector (11%). The consumption for other uses is also increasing because of the increased production of Liquids-From- Gas and of the self-consumption of the energy sector.

9 Final energy consumption : +31% up to 2020 Gtoe World final energy growth by fuel Oil represents 33% of the final energy demand growth, ahead of electricity with 29%. Coal represents 18% and gas 14% Oil Gas Coal Electricity Others Others : Biomasse, heat

10 Agenda > Results at world level > Results at European level > World CO2 emissions > General hypotheses and Oil price projections

11 Europe energy demand : gas dominates the growth Europe energy growth by fuel , Mtoe Mtoe Europe energy consumption would increase by 12% between 2005 and Gas represents most of the consumption increase (80%) followed by biomass. Oil consumption is decreasing by 9%, non-fossil energies by 6.5%. Coal consumption is stable Oil Gas Coal Biomass Others Others : Other renewables, nuclear

12 In Europe, the primary energy demand grow in tgeh industry, the power sector and the residential services Mtoe Europe energy growth by sector , Mtoe The Transport consumption in Europe remains stable up to 2020 (+5% increase). The residential-tertiary sector increases by 16% (37% of the total growth), the power sector by 13% (26% of the total growth) and Industry by 11% (22% of the growth) 1900 Industry Res-Ser-Agr Transport Power Others Others : Coke plants, refineries, oil production, losses

13 Europe coal consumption : +2% increase up to 2020 European coal growth by sector , Mtoe 370 Mtoe The coal consumption in Europe remains very limited, with a +2% increase only. Its use is stable or decreasing in all sectors except in Industry where it is increasing by 12% (+8 Mtoe). 350 Industry Res-Ser-Agr Power Other (coke)

14 Europe oil consumption : -3% decrease up to 2020 European oil growth by sector , Mtoe Mtoe Industry Res-Ser-Agr Transport Power Others (transf.) 720 The oil consumption in Europe is decreasing by 3% over the next 15 years. The decrease occurs mostly in Industry (-20 Mtoe, -12%). Oil consumption also decreases in the power sector (-7 Mtoe, -19%) and in Residential-Services (-10 Mtoe, -9%).

15 Europe gas consumption : +40% increase up to 2020 European gas growth by sector , Mtoe Mtoe Industry Res-Ser-Agr Power Others (transf., losses) 670 As for the world, the gas consumption is increasing significantly. The power sector is the main driver of this growth (53% of the increase, a 73% increase of gas use in 2020 compared to 2005). The other sectors also undergo a rise of their gas consumption (+21% for Industry and +28% for Residentialtertiary).

16 Agenda > Results at world level > Results at European level > World CO2 emissions > General hypotheses and Oil price projections

17 World CO2 emissions from energy use : 30% increase up to 2020, mainly from Asia Increase of energy-co2 emissions (GtCO2) 34.3 GtCO Asia accounts for around 73% of the total increase between 2005 and 2020, China alone for 41%. The increase in Europe, CIS and USA is fairly limited (2% for Europe CIS and 7% for USA) 24 China India Other Asia USA Latin America CIS EU-25 Others (inc bunkers) Emission growth in other parts of the world is important

18 Agenda > Results at world level > Results at European level > World CO2 emissions > General hypotheses and Oil price projections

19 General Assumptions on Population and GDP GDP growth (yearly average) Europe % 2.2% USA 2.9% 2.3% Japan 2.7% 2.0% China 8.7% 5.7% World 4.3% 3.6% Population (millions) Europe USA Japan China World

20 Hypothesis on Carbon Value and Oil price projections Carbon Value (/tco2) $ $2005 Europe Rest Annex B Kyoto Protocol Rest of the World Prix du pétrole ($05/bl) 38 51

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