The Effects of Climate Change and Energy Development on Water Resources

Transcription

1 The Effects of Climate Change and Energy Development on Water Resources Jerry Schnoor Dept. Civil and Environmental Engineering Center for Global & Regional Environmental Research University of Iowa Clarke Prize Conference National Water Research Institute November 15, 2013 CGRER

2 Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

3 Changes in Water Resources: The Drivers Population Growth Climate Change Energy Development Land Use/Agriculture Global Poverty

4 Climate Change Climate change is causing Warmer temps Shifts in precipitation Increases in extremes Wetter areas getting wetter and arid areas getting drier Too little water, and too much water (floods and droughts)

5 Global Emissions still increasing, but we need ~80% cut to level-off CO 2

6 Global average surface temperatures have increased 0.8 o C (1.4 o F) in the past 150 years, with especially large increases in the Arctic region Climatologists estimate that the accelerating global avg temp in the past 30 years clearly shows the initial effects of anthropogenic GHGs

7 Earth s energy imbalance: more energy coming in than going out ARGO floats have allowed accurate measurement of ocean heat gain since Levitus et al (2009) and Roemmich & Gilson (2009) have shown an increased heat content of 16 x J since 1961 or an avg warming of 0.06 o C in the m ocean. Earth is gaining energy at a rate 0.77 W/m 2, which is 20 times greater than the rate of human energy use, Hansen (2012).

8 Ocean surface temps have increased about 0.6 o C (1.0 o F) in past 50 yr; Surface acidity increased 30% and ph (NOAA, 2008);

9 Global Hi-Temp Extremes Increasing & Low Temps becoming rarer Source: Hansen et al., % of global land area is in extreme heat each year

10 Percentage Change in Very Heavy Precipitation, Percent increases in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events: the heaviest 1 percent of all daily events. As the globe warms, these heavy precipitation events will become more common. Third National Climate Assessment, Jan 2013

11 Cedar Rapids, Iowa June 14, 2008

12 Cedar Rapids Data (Takle, 2009) Iowa is experiencing more intense rainfall (floods), warmer winters and nights due to rising dew points (more moisture in the air).

13 Cedar Rapids Data (Takle, 2009) Iowa is experiencing more intense rainfall (floods), warmer winters and nights due to rising dew points (more moisture in the air).

14 Iowa Soil Loss in 2008 New report released on high soil losses

15 Water Withdrawals in US by sectors, US DOE Water Consumptive Use in US by sector, US DOE Note: Water withdrawals and consumption have been constant in recent years (water efficiency is increasing)

16 Irrigation Withdrawals 2005 Thermoelectric Withdrawals 2005 Published in: Sujoy B. Roy; Limin Chen; Evan H. Girvetz; Edwin P. Maurer; William B. Mills; Thomas M. Grieb; Environ. Sci. Technol. 2012, 46, DOI: /es Copyright 2012 American Chemical Society

17 Precipitation Change by 2050 from GCM models (Roy et al., 2012)

18 Water Withdrawals in U.S. projected to 2050 (Roy et al, 2012)

19 Withdrawals/Available Precip. in 2050 (Roy et al., 2012)

20 Water Sustainability Risk Index due to climate change in 2050 (Roy et al.,2012) Water Sustainability Risk Index in the absence of climate change in 2050 (Roy et al., 2012)

21 Climate is changing already and will greatly impact water supplies in 2050 Climate models indicate the western and southern U.S. will become hotter and dryer; greater water stress aquifer recharge and water reuse needed Midwest will become on average warmer and dryer (drought will affect agriculture and groundwater supplies); droughts punctuated by intense precipitation events in spring (floods) Eastern U.S. will become warmer and much wetter (flood events)

22 Adaptation to climate change will require new infrastructure for both floods and droughts

23 Energy Production is also changing and will have big impacts on water Coal-fired power plants are on the way out; we have closed 20 GW of capacity in just the past 5 yrs Gas-fired power plants (and wind/solar) are replacing coal and are more water efficient But domestic energy production is up which means more water for biofuels and both conventional and non-conventional oil and gas is needed!

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25 Fossil Fuel Reserves and Emissions Source: James Hansen (2012)

26 Refining crude bitumen for Keystone XL pipeline requires a lot of water and affects water quality, but GHG impacts may be the largest concern Do we really need the oil? Most of it will be exported as petroleum products from TX refineries. Vehicle efficiency standards by 2025 will save more than 2x the Keystone oil When do we start to stop GHGs? If not now, when?

27 Shale Gas: The greatest energy story of the 21 st century, but it needs lots of water and requires regulation

28 Water Trucks for Shale Gas Recovery 3 Wells ( ,000 m 3 /well) 3-5 Mgal/well or 1-3 m 3 /m of horizontal well lengths ( ft) Source: WaterWorld, UK ( Flowback/produced water can be less than injected (Marcellus) or more (Barnett)

29 Water Used/Produced in Energy Production (Source: Chesapeake Energy, 2010) You can t have energy without water And you can t have water without (large) energy inputs Water in gallons per MMBTU of Energy Produced

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31 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA, 2007) 15 Bg/yr biofuels production by 2015 and 36 Bg/yr by Ethanol Facilities and Major Aquifers Janice Ward, USGS Corn ethanol has mostly satisfied the RFS2 mandate until now, but cellulosic ethanol is not commercially viable raising questions about the future

32 Nutrient Yield Delivered to the Gulf of Mexico increased by increased corn Total Nitrogen Total Phosphorus Sources: Alexander et al., ES&T, 2008; Sprague et al., ES&T, 2012

33 Lincolnway Energy Plant, 50 mgpy ethanol 18 million bushels of corn per year 150 million gallons water withdrawn per year (3 gallons H2O per gallon ethanol)

34 Kansas Draw-Down of Ogallala hydrogeology.glg.msu.edu

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36 Yield is up due to GM seeds since 1995, chemical inputs, & ample rain +2 bu/ac-yr Drought! FOOD/WATER/ENERGY NEXUS!

37 EPA Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) in billion gallons per year (bgy) Conventional biofuels* Biomass diesel Advanced biofuels Cellulosic Biofuels TOTAL 20 36? *Conventional biofuels in US are corn (starch crop) which makes ethanol, and soybeans (oil crop) to make biodiesel

38 What can we do? Judicious energy choices considering water footprint Adapt to climate change Mitigate GHGs Create Coalitions of the Willing to act now Projected climate change by 2099: o C increase (World Bank, 2012)

39 Some good news U.S. greenhouse emissions down 6.9% in 2011 from 2005 baseline Fuel efficiency and GHG stds on cars and trucks Fuel efficiency is improving 3-4% per yr, and we are driving less GHG standards on coalfired power plants Emissions are down due to switching to natural gas plants Reducing other GHGs like HCFCs and black carbon

40 Hyper-efficiency, Big Wind, Small Solar, Natural Gas, & Carbon Fee/Dividend A proposal for the future: Hyper-energy efficiency, big wind, small solar, electric vehicles to store power (vehicle-to-grid V2G) Carbon fee (revenue neutral) to send clear price signal into marketplace Shift subsidies from oil and roads to renewables & mass transit, light rail, freight rail, bike trails, low C fuels

41 Chinese characters for crisis