CLİMATE CHANGE AND VARİABİLİTY RESEARCH AT TURKİSH STATE METEOROLOGİCAL SERVİCE

Transcription

1 CLİMATE CHANGE AND VARİABİLİTY RESEARCH AT TURKİSH STATE METEOROLOGİCAL SERVİCE pert Team Meeting on pact of Climate hange/variability on edium- to Long-Range edictions for griculture, - February 2005 isbane / AUSTRALIA İsmail DEMİR Turkish State Meteorological Service, Climate Change and Variability Research Unit,

2 Area: km 2 Population: 69.7 million in 2002

3 Climatic Regions of Turkey

4 Turkey Annual Mean Temperature Map ( C) BLACK SEA denizi AEGEAN SEA MEDITERRANEAN SEA Annual Mean Temperature ( C)

5 Turkey Annual Mean Precipitation(mm) Map Denizi BLACK SEA K A R A D E N İ Z 2300 EGE DEN Z AEGEAN SEA A MEDITERRANEAN K D E N İ Z SEA Annual Yıllık Mean Ortalama Precipitation(mm) Yağış (mm)

6 Trend Rates per Decade in Seasonal Temperature Series of Turkey 0,6 a) Mean temperature 0,4 0,2 0-0,2-0,4-0,6 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Trend rate ( C/decade) 0,6 0,4 0,2 0-0,2-0,4-0,6 b) Maximum temperature Winter Spring Summer Autumn 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0-0,2-0,4-0,6 c) Minimum temperature Winter Spring Summer Autumn Season

7 Year-to-year variability in the annual average maximum ( * ) and minimum ( 9 ) temperature and DTR series ( ^ ) with the least square linear fit to trend ( ), for the selected 9 stations of Turkey representing the common DTR trends in the geographical regions or sub-regions Samsun annual (BLS) Tm ax Tm in 9 8 Minimum temperature ( C) Maximum temperature ( C) 20 Bolu annual (BLS) Tm ax Tm in Minimum temperature ( C) Maximum temperature ( C) Göztepe annual (MAR) Tm ax Tm in 9 8 Minimum temperature ( C) 9 DTR ( C) 8 7 DTR ( C) DTR ( C) Year Year Year Çanakkale annual (MAR) Tm ax Tm in 9 8 Minimum temperature ( C) Maximum temperature ( C) İz mir annual (AEG) Tm ax Tm in Minimum temperature ( C) Maximum temperature ( C) 20 Afyon annual (AEG) Tm ax Tm in Minimum temperature ( C) 9 8 DTR ( C) 9 DTR ( C) Year Year Year Adana annual (MED) Tm ax Tm in 20 Minimum temperature ( C) Maximum temperature ( C) Ş anlıu rfa annual (SAN) Tm ax Tm in Minimum temperature ( C) Maximum temperature ( C) Diyarbakır annual (SAN) Tm ax Tm in Minimum temperature ( C) DTR ( C) DTR ( C)

8 Variations in Temperature Series of Turkey ( ) 21 Annual maximum temperature Annual minimum temperature 20 Temperature ( C) Temperature ( C) Year Year Annual mean temperature Temperature ( C) Year

9 B L A C K S E A a. Annual mean temperature trend

10 B L A C K S E A b. Annual maximum temperature trend

11 B L A C K S E A c. Annual minimum temperature trend

12 B L A C K S E A B L A C K S E A a. Winter mean temperature trend a. Spring mean temperature trend B L A C K S E A B L A C K S E A a. Summer mean temperature trend a. Autumn mean temperature trend

13 B L A C K S E A B L A C K S E A b. Winter maximum temperature trend b. Spring maximum temperature trend B L A C K S E A B L A C K S E A b. Summer maximum temperature trend c. Autumn minimum temperature trend

14 B L A C K S E A B L A C K S E A c. Winter minimum temperature trend c. Spring minimum temperature trend B L A C K S E A B L A C K S E A c. Summer minimum temperature trend b. Autumn maximum temperature trend

15 Variations in Seasonal and Annual Normalized Precipitation Series of Turkey ( ) normalized anomaly normalized anomaly Winter year Summer year normalized anomaly normalized anomaly Spring year Autumn year 3 Annual normalized anomaly year

16 BLACK SEA AEGEAN SEA MEDITERRANEAN SEA Annual Aridity Index Geographical distribution of the semi-arid ( 0.20 P / PE < 0. 50), dry sub-humid - ( 0.50 P / PE < 0.65) and semi-humid (065. < 080. areas prone to desertification in Turkey. AI )

17 Vulnerability of Turkey to the Global Climate Change and Desertification Impacts of the Climate Change on the Climate, Vegetation, Water Resources and Food Supply of Turkey According to the New Model Results Impacts of the climate change on temperature and precipitation conditions, natural vegetation, water resources and food supply over Turkey have been assessed by making use of the new model results from a very recent report by the UKMO/DETR (99). This model, also so called the second Hadley Centre climate model has a climate sensitivity close to the IPCC best estimate value. For that model study, the Hadley centre drove the model with CO2 emissions scenarios, which stabilise concentrations at 750 ppm and at 550 ppm. This model did not include increases in other greenhouse gases or aerosols. The changes arising from a business as usual emissions scenario, in which CO2 and other greenhouse gases increase without mitigation were also used for comparison in that report of UKMO/DETR (99), referred to as the unmitigated emissions scenario. A summarised assessment of the these model results for Turkey is as follows:

18 Projected temperature change over Turkey by the 2080s About 3-4 C increase in annual average temperature of Turkey from the present day (average of the period 61-90) to the 2080s, resulting from the unmitigated emissions scenario; About 2-3 C increase in annual average temperature by the 2080s, resulting from an emissions scenario that stabilises CO2 concentration at 750 ppm; About 1-2 C increase in annual average temperature by the 2080s, with an emissions scenario leading to stabilisation of CO2 concentration at 550 ppm.

19 Projected precipitation change over Turkey by the 2080s About 0 to 1 mm/day change in annual average precipitation by th 80s, resulting from the unmitigated emissions scenario; About 0 to 0.5 mm/day change in annual average precipitation b e 2080s, with both two stabilisation scenarios of CO2 concentration a 0 ppm and at 550 ppm. Projected change in vegetation biomass over Turkey by the 2080s No considerable change in vegetation biomass (kgc/m2) by the 80s in response to climate change, due to the unmitigated emissions enario and the two stabilisation scenarios of CO2 concentration at 0 ppm and at 550 ppm.

20 Projected percentage change in annual runoff by major river basin er Turkey by the 2080s relative to About 20 to 50% decrease in annual runoff by the 2080s under th mitigated emissions scenario; About 5 to 25% decrease in annual runoff by the 2080s under a issions scenario leading to stabilisation of CO2 concentration at 75 m; About 0 to % decrease in annual runoff by the 2080s under a issions scenario leading to stabilisation of CO2 concentration at 55 m.

21 Water resource stress of Turkey due to climate change by the 2080s Turkey and the Middle East region are assessed among the stressed areas of the world with an increase in water stress, with unmitigated emissions scenario and the two emissions stabilisation scenarios of CO2 concentration at 750 ppm and at 550 ppm. The indicator of water resource stress used in the UKMO/DETR Report is the ratio of total national water withdrawals, as estimated for the UN Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World, to total national average annual runoff, including runoff imported from upstream countries.

22 Projected percentage change in crop yield over Turkey by the 2080s About 0 to 2.5% change (a decrease) in crop yield with the unmitigated emissions scenario; About 0 to 2.5% change (an increase) in crop yield, with the emissions scenarios that lead to stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm and at 550 ppm.

23 THANK YOU