Energy [R]evolution for India. Delhi 5 th December 2008

Transcription

1 Energy [R]evolution for India Delhi 5 th December 28 THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO USES ONLY 1.3% OF THE KNOWN AVAILABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES OF DEVELOPED ECONOMIES BY 22 - THIS ALONE WILL PROVIDE 21% OF GLOBAL ENERGY NEEDS (BY 22).

2 Climate policy targets Stabilize global CO 2 -concentration under 4 ppm Global CO2 emission peak by 215 Reduction of global energy related CO 2 -emissions from today's 29 Gt/a to approx. 1 G t/a in 25 World OECD EU-27 China India Africa t CO 2 /(capita, year)

3 Energy Policy targets: Rapid fossil fuel phase-out Only proven technology will be used Achieve global climate target with a parallel nuclear phase-out Equity and fairness, sustainable economic growth

4 Development of different scenarios Projections of technical and socio-economic developments Forecasting future world langfristiges Zieljahr Need actions and investmnets Backcasting Defined targets

5 The logic of the energy [r]evolution scenario From principles to practice - Use the current time window for Step 1: Energy Efficiency Step 2: Structural Changes Decentralised energy and large scale renewables Cogeneration Step 3: Energy Efficient Transport Efficient Public Transport Systems Efficient Cars, Trucks etc. Sustainable biofuels Scenario principles in a nutshell Smart consumption, generation and distribution Energy production moves closer to the consumer Maximum use of locally available, environmentally friendly fuels

6 RES capacity energy demand Nuclear Phase out Coal Phase out time

7 the energy [r]evolution: the global context The Energy [R]evolution: More energy equity for developing countries

8 Key driver for growing energy demand A) India's population steady growth until Million people

9 Key driver for growing energy demand B) India GDP growth between 25 and 23: + 1 % average $ 25 /capita

10 Key driver for growing energy demand C) India's Energy intensity: technical potential for energy efficiency largely exploited 4 3,5 MJ/$ 3 2,5 2 1,5 1, Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

11 Cost development of renewable electricity generation 4 35 ct/kwh PV Wind Biomass CHP Concentrating solar thermal

12 Fossil Fuels costs (Imports) Oil ($ 25 /barrel) 52, Erdgas ($ 25 /GJ) 5,8 1 13,3 17,2 2,6 23 Steinkohle ($ 25 /t) 76,

13 the energy [r]evolution: demand development The Energy [R]evolution scenario saves over 2 Exa-Joule by 25 Most important mesasures: Building insulation Strict efficiency standards for all electrical applications, Strict efficiency standards for all vehicles. Reference Scenario Energy Revolution Scenario PJ/a 5. PJ/a Transport Other Sectors Industry Transport Other Sectors Industry

14 the energy [r]evolution: shift towards renewables Renewable Primary energy shares: 25: 31 %, 22: 27 %, 23: 32%, 25: 54% PJ/a PJ/a Efficiency Ocean energy Geothermal Solar Biomass Wind Hydro Natural gas Crude oil Coal Nuclear

15 the energy [r]evolution: a transport [r]evolution Needed changes in the transport sector: Renewable Share in 22: 5 % 25: 28.8% More efficiency in ALL technologies within the transport sector Shift from road to rail and from aviation to ships Strict efficiency standards for cars Phase-in of electrical drives Efficiency PJ/a 14. PJ/a 14. Hydrogen Electricity Biofuels Natural gas Oil products

16 the energy [r]evolution: demand development 3. The heating sector: Heating/Cooling Demand: - 45 PJ/a by 25 (25: 882 PJ/a) Production: 56% RE by 22 and 7% by 25 (25: 63.4%) 'Efficiency' Geothermal Solar Biomass Fossil fuels PJ/a 'Efficiency' Industry Other Sectors Geothermal Solar Biomass Fossil fuels

17 the energy [r]evolution: Power Sector Power Sector Demand: - 18 TWh by 22; - 35 TWh by 23; TWh by 25 Generation: 24.6 % RE by 22, 34.6% by 23 and 69 % RE by 25 TWh/a TWh/a Efficiency Ocean Energy Solar Thermal PV Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass Gas&oil Coal Nuclear

18 the energy [r]evolution: Power Sector - Renewables Ocean energy Solarthermal PV Geothermal Wind Biomass Hydro

19 keeping energy affordable Electricity supply costs Today: $ 65 billion Reference 22: $279 billion 23: $ 516 billion Energy [R]evolution 22: $ 238 billion $ 6 billion (efficiency) : 395 billion 16 billion (efficiency) Energy Revolution - efficiency measures Energy Revolution - electricity generation Reference - electricity generation

20 keeping energy affordable Specific Electricity supply costs Break even: Energy [R]evolution Reference

21 the energy [r]evolution: CO 2 emissions Energy related CO2 emissions reductions based on 199 levels: Emission peak in Mill t/a Savings from efficiency and renewables Transport Other sectors Industry Public electricity and CHP

22 Investments in Renewable Energy until 22: $ 238 billion Change in cummulative power plant investments in India - energy [r]evolutiuon scenario Nuclear Fossil Renewables Cogeneration billion $

23 Change in cumulative power plant investment under the Energy [R]evolution scenario - Share of investments reference - investment in power sector India Energy [R]evolution scenario - investment in India s power sector Total Cogeneration 4% Total Nuclear 5% Total Cogeneration 8% Total Fossil 31% Total Renewables 4% Total: 728 billion Total: 882 billion Total Fossil 51% Total Renewables 61%

24 Saved Fuel Costs versus additional Investments Reference Scenario average per year Investment cost Euro Total Nuclear billion $ REF Total Fossil billion $ REF Total Renewables billion $ REF Total Cogeneration billion $ REF Total billion $ REF Alternative Scenario average per year Investment cost Euro Total Fossil billion $ E[R] Total Renewables billion $ E[R] Total Cogeneration billion $ REF Total billion $ E[R] Chapter 8, Table 2 annual average Difference E(R) VERSUS REF Investment cost Euro DIF Total Fossil & Nuclear billion $ DIF Total Renewables billion $ DIF Total Cogeneration billion $ DIF Total billion $ DIF

25 Saved Fuel Costs versus additional Investments Average annual Fuel Costs REF in billion $ billion $/a Total Fuel Oil billion $/a Total Gas billion $/a Total Coal billion $/a Total Lignite billion $/a Total Fossil Fuels billion $/a Average annual Fossil Fuel Costs E[R] in billion billion $ $/a Total Fuel Oil billion $/a Total Gas billion $/a Total Coal billion $/a Total Lignite billion $/a Total Fossil Fuels billion $/a Average annual Savings Fuel Costs REF VERSUS billion E[R] $/a in billion $ fuel oil billion $/a gas billion $/a hard coal billion $/a lignite billion $/a Total Fossil Fuel Savings billion $/a

26 Saved Fuel Costs versus additional Investments 25 22: Saved fuel costs are 7 x higher than additional investments costs Factor 7

27

28 Energy [R]evolution for the EU-27 Brussels 2 December 28