Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Department of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay

Transcription

1 Overview of Energy Scenario Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Department of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay DSM Workshop at IIT Bombay December

2 2 Cullen and Allwood, 2010

3 Energy Supply 2005 Cullen and Allwood,

4 India and World (Selected Indicators for 2012) Population 1237 million 7037 million GDP (PPP) 5567 Billion 2005 US$ Billion 2005 US$ (4500 $/person) (11780 $/person) Primary Energy 33 EJ 559 EJ Energy/person 26.6 GJ/person/year 84.4 GJ/person/year Electricity/person 760 kwh/capita/year 2972 kwh/capita/year CO2 emissions Per person Per GDP 1626 Million tonnes Million tonnes 1.58 tonnes /capita/year 4.51 tonnes /capita/year 0.35 kg /US$ ppp 0.38 kg /US$ ppp Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2014

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6 Are our electricity supply systems sustainable? 6

7 Global Trends Unbounded Growth? GEA Ch 3 7

8 Rockstrom et al, Nature

9 Long term global temperature record Rockstrom et al, Nature

10 Carbon Dioxide Concentrations 6

11 Recent Carbon dioxide concentrations 11

12 Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

13 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Kaya identity: Total CO2 Emissions = (CO2/E)(E/GDP)(GDP/Pop)Pop CO2/E Carbon Intensity E/GDP- Energy Intensity of Economy Mitigation increase sinks, reduce sources- aforestation, fuel mix,energy efficiency, renewables,nuclear, carbon sequestration Adaptation

14 Source: IPCC,

15 Urban Air Problems October 31, Photo by Adnan Abidi/Reuters 15

16 History Of Electric Power Generation Darjeeling Power Station 13 kw Hydro power station Damodar Valley Corporation & Electricity Supply Act formed by Govt. of India Total Installed capacity- 1713MW (15kWh/ capita) JNNSM Kudankulam MW 100 kw DC Power Systems Emambagh Power Station CESC Thermal power station 1,362 MW Tarapur 1 st Nuclear power plant (2x160MW =320MW) Rajastan Atomic Power Plant(300MW +4x220MW) Kaiga Generating Station- (4x220MW ) TATA Power 4000 MW Power plant, Gujarat Edison Westinghouse, Tesla-AC power plant 7

17 Historical Household Electrification Rates GEA, Chapter 19 17

18 Installed Capacity - India 2016 (as on ) Diesel, 919 Renewables (Res.), Waste to Power, 115 Solar Power, 6998 Hydro (Res.), Biomass & Bagasse, 4831 Small Hydro power, 4275 Wind power, Natural Gas, Nuclear, 5780 Coal, MW All India installed capacity Source: GOI, Ministry of Power, India (powermin.nic.in) MW Total Renewable installed capacity Source: MNRE, Govt. of India ( 8

19 Human Development Index (HDI) HDI and Electricity consumption (2013) Netherlands Switzerland Australia United States Russia India Pakistan 2035 India India World Very High HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI Annual Electricity consumption/ capita (kwh) 9

20 Renewable share? What will be the future supply mix for the Electricity sector? How much can renewables and nuclear supply? 20

21 India s INDC #1 Reduce Emissions Intensity of GDP by 33-35% of 2005 level in 2030 #2 Create 40% cumulative non fossil power by installed capacity by 2030 (using finance from Green Climate Fund) #3 Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO 2 equivalent through additional tree cover and forest 21

22 Renewable Energy Options Solar Wind Biomass Small Hydro Tidal Energy Solar Thermal Solar Photovoltaic Ocean Thermal Energy Geothermal* Wave Energy

23 Renewable Share in Power Renewable Installed Capacity 8 Renewable Generation Nuclear generation Nuclear Installed Capacity

24 Renewable installed capacity and generation Installed Capacity* (MW) Estimated Capacity factor Estimated Generation (GWh) Wind % Biomass & Bagasse % Small Hydro % Waste to Energy % 504 Solar PV % 9233 Total % *as on MNRE website: 13 24

25 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 14

26 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 15

27 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 16

28 3 Rs./kWh 6 Rs./kWh 9 Rs./kWh Cost of Electricity ($/MWh) Bloomberg,

29 Comparison of Supply technologies Generation Technology SIZE RANGE (GW) COSTCrores / MW Rs/ kwh CAPACITY FACTOR AREA (m 2 /GWh) CO 2 Equivalent (gc0 2 /kwh ) WATER l/mwh COAL CCGT SOLAR PV SOLAR THERMAL HYDRO NUCLEAR WIND

30 World s largest solar power plant 648 MW 4654 crore ~ Rs 7.2 crores/ MW Area 10 km 2 Kamothi, Tamil Nadu Robotics for automatic panel cleaning Plant built in 8 months 30

31 1 MW Solar Plant IIT Bombay 19

32 Building Integrated PV Entrance canopy of CleanTech Park 2, Singapore Organic PV 12% Roofed walkway with HeliaFilm at the Seletar Airport Singapore 30 m 2 flexible 7% 32

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34 Printed PV VICOSC s new solar cell printer installed at CSIRO 34

35 National Solar Thermal Power Facility Consortium supported by MNRE and led by IIT Bombay Thermal Storage Generato r Turbine Solar Field Thermic Oil Loop Heat Exchanger Condenser CLFR Direct Steam Cooling Water Circuit Pump Expansion Vessel Pump Water/ Steam Loop Schematic of 1 MW Solar Power Plant Simulator snapshot Consortium Members Parabolic Trough Solar Field Linear Fresnel Reflector Solar Field at Gwalpahari site KIE Solatherm 23

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38 Prototype for 24 x 7 Solar Thermal Power Development of indigenous heliostat Development of improved LFR with steam storage using PCM Development of molten salt loop and stratified storage DESE- IIT Bombay Partners: Clique Consultants, Mumbai KGDS Renewable Energy, Coimbatore Sponsored by NETRA NTPC Ltd Solar tower Temperature C flow condition Flow Flow No Flow No Flow Heat transfer fluid is molten salt 3 2 Molten salt Pump for H.X Superheated steam Molten salt Pump for tower 1 Stratified molten salt Storage Heat Exchanger 4 Water 26

39 Share of Energy Imports - India Import Share (INDIA)

40 Total Installed Capacity of Solar and Wind Energy (GW) Existing Capacity (GW) Targets for the Future (GW) China USA India Japan Germany 31

41 Plan Layout 41 32

42 A portion of the ELU map of Ward A of MCGM Corresponding Satellite Imagery for the area from Google Earth Analyzed in QGIS To determine -Building Footprint Ratios - Usable PV Areas For Sample Buildings Source: R. Singh and Banerjee,

43 0:01-1:00 1:01-2:00 2:01-3:00 3:01-4:00 4:01-5:00 5:01-6:00 6:01-7:00 7:01-8:00 8:01-9:00 9:01-10:00 10:01-11:00 11:01-12:00 12:01-13:00 13:01-14:00 14:01-15:00 15:01-16:00 16:01-17:00 17:01-18:00 18:01-19:00 19:01-20:00 20:01-21:00 21:01-22:00 22:01-23:00 23:01-24:00 MUs Jan, 2014 Typical Load Profile vs PV Generation Capacity Factor for Mumbai Axis Tracking Axis Highest eff. 1-Axix Median eff Fixed 19 deg. Annual Average with 1-Axis Tracking 1 19 deg. Fixed Highest eff deg. Fixed Median eff Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: R. Singh and Banerjee,

44 Gujarat Wind 1 st April :47 pm Installed Capacity 3542 MW Gujarat Wind 3 rd March :00 pm 35

45 A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable Energy Targets, draft 36

46 Analysis using SAM From Decomposition Analysis Intermediate Consumption SAM Final Demand Scenarios for Sectoral Growth From Optimisation or Manual Endogenous Exog enou s Δf Constraints Resource, Emissions Multiplier Decomposition Δx = M A *Δf Investment Energy Supply SAM Coefficients New Production New SAM Energy Demand 37

47 Summary India low energy use, high growth, predominantlt fossil based INDC targets -achievable Low Capacity factors- High daily and seasonal variability Financing issues Initial capital Reduction in GDP, Equity impacts Storage costs problems with high penetration -Capacity credit? Need for R&D and indigenization Impact on Employment Need for alternatives Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Management 47

48 References GEA, 2012 Chapter 3 : Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. T. Kanitkar et al 2015: Tejal Kanitkar, Banerjee, R. Banerjee and T. Jayaraman, Impact of economic structure on mitigation targets for developing countries, Volume 26, June 2015, 56 61, June Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India, New Delhi, website: Ministry of Power, Government of India, R. Singh and Banerjee, 2015: Singh, R., and Banerjee, R., Estimation of rooftop solar photovoltaic potential of a city, Solar Energy, Vol. 115, , May Rockstrom et al, Nature pdf Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016: Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016 A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable Energy Targets, draft 48

49 Acknowledgment Solar power team+ Team Shunya Pankaj Kumar Rhythm Singh Tejal Kanitkar Jani Das Ajit Paul Abraham Balkrishna Surve Thank you 41