A small portion of global CO 2 emissions

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1 Reaso Foudatio Policy Summary May 2012 Impacts of Trasportatio Policies o Greehouse Gas Emissios i U.S. Regios by David T. Hartge, M. Gregory Fields, Matthew Scott ad Elizabeth Sa José Project Director: Adria Moore A small portio of global CO 2 emissios are a byproduct of fossil fuel combustio. Most occur i the productio of eergy, but about a third are emitted durig trasportatio. Natioal CO 2 reductio policy optios i the trasportatio sector focus primarily o the reductio of the uderlyig activity (i.e., travel), or o techology madates that seek to achieve emissios reductios through icreased efficiecy. A example of the latter is the ew Corporate Average Fuel Ecoomy () stadards established by Cogress (H.R. 6, P.L ), which set a overall ew-car/truck efficiecy of 35 MPG by I additio to these atioal policies, may U.S. state ad local govermets are cosiderig or implemetig localized policies to curb GHG emissios, icludig trasportatio. Oe report foud that 36 states ad several hudred local govermets have siged o to aggressive plas to cutback greehouse gas emissios electric eergy geeratio, idustry, ad trasportatio. Most well kow is Califoria s requirig metropolita area trasportatio plas to iclude measures to reduce greehouse gas emissios to 1990 levels by These policy iitiatives are takig place without much regio-specific research or ecoomic assessmet. While a few regios have coducted substative aalyses, most lack baselie estimates of CO 2 i their specific urba regio ad lack aalysis of the cost-effectiveess of various measures beig cosidered. May policies iteded to reduce local trasportatio CO 2 emissios, such as reducig miles traveled, improvig highways, icreasig trasit use, reducig speed limits ad others, have bee proposed. But sice may factors affect trasporta- This is a policy summary of a more detailed policy brief that is available at reaso.org/ Reaso s research ad commetary is available olie at reaso.org For additioal iformatio about Reaso Foudatio s policy work, please cotact Adria Moore at For media iquiries, cotact Chris Mitchell, Director of Commuicatios at (310) or chris.mitchell@ reaso.org R e a s o F o u d a t i o w w w. r e a s o. o r g

2 tio s cotributio to greehouse gas levels i urba regios, ad urba areas vary i their trasportatio eeds ad behavior, the costs ad effectiveess of such emissio-reductio policies will also vary regio to regio. Uderstadig the relative effectiveess of these policies withi the local/regioal cotext is importat. I this study we preset estimates of the costeffectiveess (impact ad costs) for specific policies iteded to reduce CO 2 emissios i the trasportatio sectors of 48 represetative U.S. urbaized areas. The ext sectio discusses how we gathered data ad performed our aalysis. The the Results sectio shows a compariso of the effects likely to occur full implemetatio of the federal stadards curretly i place with CO 2 reductio policies. Our fidigs, discussed i the Recommedatios sectio of this summary, suggest that each urba area should tailor its strategies to its specific eeds, especially sice adoptig the wrog policy mix is likely to result i substatial waste ad little or o reductio i carbo emissios. To provide a baselie for compariso, we assessed the effectiveess of policies with a hypothetical goal of limitig or returig CO 2 emissios to their 2005 level by It should be oted that this is ot a goal we see as desirable; it was chose merely for the purposes of compariso ad perspective. How We Calculated the Costs ad Effectiveess of Policies To estimate the regioal cost-effectiveess of carbo emissios reductios strategies, we used these specific steps: A. Regio Selectio We selected a total of 48 urba areas (Table 1). These iclude all regios over three millio persos, most regios betwee oe millio ad three millio (a few, otably Bosto, Salt Lake City, Clevelad, Kasas City, Sa Atoio, Baltimore, Memphis ad Nashville are ot icluded because of time ad budget costraits) ad selected smaller regios ragig i size oe millio persos to 200,000 persos. Sice we icluded all of the largest urba areas, most large regios ad a cross-sectio of smaller regios, icludig 18 regios i the 100, ,000 populatio rage, these results are idicative for similar U.S. regios. I total, these regios accout for about 41 of the U.S. populatio, but 60 of trasit use ad 90 of cogestio delay. B. Data Collectio We gathered data o travel ad road mileage by fuctioal class, for 1995 ad 2005, alog with speeds by fuctioal class, populatio, employmet, cogestio (travel time idex), trasit use, carpoolig, walkig ad work-at-home shares for each urbaized area. We used urbaized area statistics the Cesus ad the modeled regio the local regioal lograge plas to esure comparability. Travel was partitioed by peak/off peak ad vehicle type (cars ad light trucks, sigle-uit commercial trucks ad combiatio trucks). We the forecast travel by fuctioal class/ vehicle type/time of day to 2030, usig each regio s log-rage pla forecasts of VMT ad shift-share allocatios. C. Carbo Emissios Reductio Policies We reviewed the academic ad policy literature as well as plas for these regios, ad idetified the followig geeral policies for study: Madated fuel efficiecy improvemets, e.g. ew stadards eacted i Capacity improvemets, primarily freeway ad arterial wideigs. -chage policies such as sigal optimizatio, speed harmoizatio policies (where speed limits are lowered ad made uiform by lae or directio durig periods of cogestio to keep traffic flowig more smoothly) ad speed cappig (settig lower speed limits). VMT reductios or chages i VMT growth rates. High-Occupacy-Vehicle (HOV) ad High-Occupacy-Toll (HOT) laes oe form of cogestio pricig. Trasit ad carpoolig icreases i modal shares for work travel. Impacts of Trasportatio Policies o Greehouse Gas Emissios 2 Reaso Foudatio

3 Table 1: Regioal Growth i CO ad Percet Reductio Policies Regio (i size order) Chage i CO 2 with NO ew Reductio to Meet 2005 Percet Reductio New Stadards Added Red Needed to Meet 2005 Med- Small Cars Sigal Timig 50 MPH Peak 55 MPH Limit Reductios N0 LOS F 50 more Work at Home 2x HOV/T Lae 25 more Carpool Reductios -5 VMT +50 Trasit Red +50 Walk-to- Work All Excess or Deficit NYC-Newark LA-Log Beach Chicago Philadelphia Miami SF.-Oaklad Washigto Dallas-Fort Worth Housto Sa Diego Seattle-Tacoma Atlata Mieapolis-St. Paul Phoeix-Mesa St. Louis Tampa Dever-Aurora Milwaukee Portlad, OR Providece-Fall River Sacrameto Orlado Louisville Jacksoville Bridgeport Stamford Richmod-Petersburg Rochester, NY Dayto Austi Albay Albuquerque Tulsa Grad Rapids Bato Rouge Columbia Raleigh Koxville Bakersfield Des Moies Spokae McAlle Ogde-Layto Reaso Foudatio 3 Impacts of Trasportatio Policies o Greehouse Gas Emissios

4 Table 1: Regioal Growth i CO ad Percet Reductio Policies Regio (i size order) Chage i CO 2 with NO ew Reductio to Meet 2005 Percet Reductio New Stadards Added Red Needed to Meet 2005 Med- Small Cars Sigal Timig 50 MPH Peak 55 MPH Limit Reductios N0 LOS F 50 more Work at Home 2x HOV/T Lae 25 more Carpool Reductios -5 VMT +50 Trasit Red +50 Walk-to- Work All Excess or Deficit Madiso Cape Coral Lacaster, PA Boise City Salem, OR Fort Collis Totals/Average Work-at-home ad walk-to-work strategies. Shifts i vehicle size mix, e.g. higher portios of small/medium cars. We iclude major techology actios, commutig policies ad more geeral all-day policies, such as VMT reductios, capacity improvemets ad speed cotrols. Although these are ot the oly policies oe might look at, they cover most of those metioed i trasportatio plas. D. Data Aalysis We first estimated the trasportatio-related CO 2 emissios for each regio for the baselie (prior to the ew stadards) ad the forecast (implemetatio of ew stadards) for 2005 ad These years were chose for cosistecy, sice most lograge trasportatio plas i the U.S. are for We the aalyzed the impact of each policy o CO 2 reductio, compared with the baselie forecast, for each regio. This step varied somewhat by policy, depedig o the ature of the impact ad its effect o traffic ad emissios. The basic procedure was to simulate the policy s impact at a give reasoable level of peetratio or adoptio by calculatig how a give policy would affect CO 2 emissios. All estimates of CO 2 emissios are i tos per day. This is ecessary because virtually all regioal ad U.S. Federal Highway Admiistratio (FHWA) VMT data are i average weekday VMT, ot aual VMT. We report fidigs i reductio of CO 2 i tos per day, ad i percet reductio the baselie forecast, i.e., the CO 2 emissios that would be produced i 2030 uder the prior stadards. We also estimated the overall global impact of each policy. E. Estimatig Costs The we estimated the direct govermet ad maufacturig cost of each policy by regio usig best estimates the literature. These are for the iitial implemetatio of each policy (for istace, additioal maufacturig costs for icreased fuel efficiecy, govermet costs of more trasit service, costs of higher gasolie prices eeded to reduce VMT, etc.). They do ot iclude secod-order costs, such as resource extractio, lifecycle or social costs such as lost time, or so-called co-beefits such as reduced accidets or operatig costs. These steps might be icluded i selectig specific actios withi each regio, but are beyod the scope of this study. F. Estimatig Cost-Effectiveess Fially we estimated the approximate cost-effectiveess (approximate cost per to of CO 2 emissios reduced) for each policy for each regio. These aalytical steps ad their results are fully explored i a larger report (Hartge, et al., 2011); here we summarize the most iterestig fidigs. Results A. Baselie Forecast If prior stadards had remaied i place, our baselie forecast idicates that CO 2 emissios Impacts of Trasportatio Policies o Greehouse Gas Emissios 4 Reaso Foudatio

5 vehicle miles travelled (VMT) i the 48 regios studied would icrease about 50 over the ext several decades, i lie with icreases i travel. This meas that, for the regios studied, trasportatio-related CO 2 emissios i 2030 would be about 2 millio metric tos (MMT) daily, represetig about 47 of U.S. gasolie ad diesel CO 2 emissios (4.5 MMT), 13 of total U.S. CO 2 emissios (16.4 MMT), ad about 3 of world CO 2 emissios (76.9 MMT). B. Higher Vehicle Fuel Efficiecy Regulatios Madated ew stadards for vehicle fleet fuel efficiecy, however, are forecast to reduce the 2030 forecast of CO 2 emissios to about 1.45 millio tos daily; that s a reductio of about 660,000 tos daily, which is about 31 lower tha with prior stadards. The overall cost-effectiveess of this policy is about $52 per to reduced, though this does ot cout possible safety impacts of lighter cars or take ito accout shifts to more fuel-efficiet vehicles that might occur abset the madates. Additioal shifts to smaller cars would decrease aother 39,000 tos daily, which is about a 3 reductio. C. Effects of Other Policies Table 1 shows the relative size ad the magitude of emissio reductio for each of the 48 metro areas. For example, the New York-Newark area would see about a 38 icrease i VMT betwee about 2005 ad 2030, with a proportioal icrease i CO 2 emissios. I other words, if the ew stadards were ot i place, New York-Newark would have to reduce future CO 2 emissios about 27 to hold CO 2 at 2005 levels. However, the ew stadards are likely to reduce about 31 of 2030 CO 2 emissios, slightly more tha eeded to meet goals. Sice the regios vary widely i growth rates ad modal shares, some are quite well positioed to meet possible CO 2 reductios, while others would ot be able to do so without very large chages i travel behavior. The areas studied ted to fall ito three growth categories: slow-growth regios i which the ew stadards will costrai the icrease i CO 2 emissios to below 2005 levels; moderate-growth regios, which would require additioal measures such as those aalyzed here to reach the 2005 CO 2 emissio levels i additio to the ew stadards, ad fast-growth Figure 1: Summary of Cost-Effectiveess ad CO 2 Reductio Cost Effectiveess, $ per To Reduced $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $200 $100 cap Sigal Timig New Madated Stadards Icrease Walk-to-Work Share Icrease Trasit Work Share Icreased Road Capacity VMT Reductio Work at Home Expad Carpoolig Expad HOV/HOT Harmoizatio Small Cars Cumulative Reductio of CO 2, 1,000 Tos/Day i Thousads of Reaso Foudatio 5 Impacts of Trasportatio Policies o Greehouse Gas Emissios

6 Table 2: Summary of Fidigs Strategy Descriptio CO 2, K Chage, K Impact o Icrem Aual Cost per To Notes Tos/ Day Tos/ Day Chage Global CO 2 Cost, $B Reduced Curret , Baselie Forecast 2030, No chage i average 2, * Slow growers fare better vehicle fuel ecoomy VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY 2.A Fuel Ecoomy Improvemets () 2030, ew madated stadards 2.B Vehicle Size Mix Fleet is ½ small cars, covetioal fuel HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENTS 3.A Sigal Timig ad Coordiatio 3.B Harmoizatio 3.C Capacity Improvemets 3.D Impose Caps (Limits) TRAVEL BEHAVIOR 4.A Icrease Work at Home (telecommutig) 4.B Expaded HOV/ HOT laes 4.C Expad Carpoolig Services 4.D Reductios i Travel 4.E Expad Trasit Services 4.F Icrease Walk to Work Improved sigal coord arterials oly. Uiform 50 mph, peak hours, freeways 2030 capacity targetig cogested liks 55 mph speed limit o freeways 50 icrease i work-athome share, thru employer icetives 1, ** $8.540 $51.77 Rage $45-$55 per to reduced 1,413-39*** (Likely to be a savigs) 1, (vs. 1,510)*** 1, (vs.1,510)* 1, (vs. 1,510)*** 1, (vs. 1,510)* Likely to be uiform across regios $0.983 $112 Effective policy for most regios $0.733 $176 $30-$370 per to reduced $62.17 $3,995 Wide rage, $1,019 to $15,200 per to reduced $ $0.13 Large social costs (lost travel time) 1,444-8*** $6.584 $3,496 Rage $503 to $6,700 per to reduced Add 10 to 200 lae-miles 1, *** $5.695 $2,462 Rage $422- $38, higher carpool work share, through agecy vapool services 5 reductio i 2030 Car/Lt Truck VMT 50 higher trasit work share 50 icrease i walk-towork share 1,441-11*** $7.550 $2,776 Wide rage 1,394-58*** $56.75 $3,923 Small rage, $3,880- $3,957 1,436-16*** $16.60 $4,257 Wide rage, $472- $12,000 1,447-5*** ukow ukow Implemetatio cost is likely to be very high regios, which will ot achieve 2005 emissio levels eve if they implemet all the policies aalyzed i this study. D. Cost-Effectiveess I additio to estimates of the techical effectiveess of these policies i meetig emissios reductios goals, we surveyed the literature for cost estimates. Table 2 shows the typical emissio effects ad costs of each policy, ad well as some observatios about how they vary across regios. Figure 1 shows each policy s relative cost-effectiveess ad its relative techical effectiveess i meetig CO 2 reductio goals. Recommedatios Carbo reductio has become a policy goal for atioal govermets aroud the globe. The trasportatio sector, i particular, has become a target of these iitiatives. Urbaized areas, however, vary sigificatly i their ability to achieve specific carbo reductio strategies cost-effectively. This study reports the results of the relative techical- ad cost-effectiveess of meetig carbo reductio goals through the trasport sector for 48 urbaized areas i the U.S. Requiremets for higher fuel ecoomy that are already i place, alog with market-drive shifts to smaller vehicles, will reduce U.S. trasportatio Impacts of Trasportatio Policies o Greehouse Gas Emissios 6 Reaso Foudatio

7 CO 2 emissios 31 by 2030 at a cost of about $52/ to reduced. For slower-growig regios these effects aloe are likely sufficiet to reduce CO 2 emissios below 2005 levels ad further itervetio would be ulikely to yield sigificat additioal reductios. The other policies examied are either much more costly or much less effective ad would thus require substatial resources a regio to achieve further CO 2 reductios. For faster-growig regios, policymakers ad trasportatio plaers must carefully evaluate the techical- ad cost-effectiveess of specific strategies because some regios are better able to beefit particular approaches tha others. Regios should cosider if they therefore are the best use of resources, at a miimum comparig them to the costeffectiveess of o-trasportatio CO 2 reductio policies. About the Authors David T. Hartge is Emeritus Professor of Trasportatio Studies at UNC Charlotte ad presidet of The Hartge Group. Professor Hartge is widely kow i trasportatio circles. He established the UNC Charlotte s Ceter for Iterdiscipliary Trasportatio Studies i 1989 ad ow coducts research i trasportatio policy. He is the author of about 350 publicatios o a wide variety of topics i trasportatio policy ad plaig, is the U.S. editor of the iteratioal academic joural Trasportatio, ad is active i professioal orgaizatios. He is a frequet media iterviewee i local ad atioal publicatios. Before comig to Charlotte he directed the statistics ad aalysis fuctios of the New York State Departmet of Trasportatio ad served as a Policy Aalyst at the Federal Highway Admiistratio. He holds egieerig degrees Duke Uiversity ad Northwester Uiversity. He has taught at SUNY Albay, Uio College ad Syracuse Uiversity ad lectures widely. He is well kow for his aual assessmets of the cost-effectiveess of the 50 state highway systems. His studies of road coditios ad his recet atioal study of cogestio reductio also attracted wide atioal attetio. M. Gregory Fields is a retired military officer with degrees West Poit, Webster Uiversity i St. Louis ad UNC Charlotte. He is erolled i the Ph.D. program i Urba Regioal Aalysis at UNC Charlotte ad has participated i a umber of comparative trasportatio studies icludig the Fraser Istitute s study of Caadia provices, Reaso s recet study of cogestio ad Reaso s recet study of accessibility ad productivity. Matthew Scott is a alumus of Davidso College with a A.B. i Ecoomics. He is curretly a post-baccalaureate at UNC Charlotte, ad a graduate assistat i Statistics at Johso C. Smith Uiversity. He has cotributed to aother study i trasportatio (a review of Charlotte s recetly costructed light rail lie) i additio to his research i the social scieces. Elizabeth Sa José is a research aalyst with The Hartge Group. She has cotributed to studies of Charlotte s light rail lie, cogestio i mid-sized regios, cogestio growth i mid-sized regios, ad Highway Trust Fud reveues. She holds a BS i Aviatio Studies Idiaa State Uiversity. R easo Foudatio s missio is to advace a free society by developig, applyig ad promotig libertaria priciples, icludig idividual liberty, free markets ad the rule of law. We use jouralism ad public policy research to ifluece the frameworks ad actios of policymakers, jouralists ad opiio leaders. Reaso Foudatio s opartisa public policy research promotes choice, competitio ad a dyamic market ecoomy as the foudatio for huma digity ad progress. Reaso produces rigorous, peer-reviewed research ad directly egages the policy process, seekig strategies that emphasize cooperatio, flexibility, local kowledge ad results. Reaso s research ad commetary is available olie at reaso.org. For additioal iformatio about Reaso Foudatio s policy work, please cotact Adria Moore at adria.moore@reaso.org. For media iquiries, cotact Chris Mitchell, Director of Commuicatios at (310) or chris.mitchell@reaso.org Reaso Foudatio 7 Impacts of Trasportatio Policies o Greehouse Gas Emissios