Improving Renewables Integration in the European Power Systems. Simon Müller Analyst System Integration of Renewables Renewable Energy Division

Transcription

1 Improving Renewables Integration in the European Power Systems Simon Müller Analyst System Integration of Renewables Renewable Energy Division European Utility Week, 4 November 2015, Vienna OECD/IEA 2015

2 Mid-term outlook for renewables Renewable electricity (RES-E) generation in the EU, Wind and solar PV contribute roughly half of RES-E by 2020, of from 15% in 2005 Long-term IEA projections see Europe as the world region with highest shares of wind and solar PV OECD/IEA

3 New operational situations at high shares of solar PV Solar PV generation across Europe, 20 March GW/ 30min +21GW/9 0min Source: ENTSO-E A solar eclipse is a rare and predictable event, but becomes relevant for TSOs at high shares of solar PV 3

4 Energy security key drivers and challenges for renewables Benefits Diversification Balanced RE Portfolio key element for diversified mix in electricity, transport and heating sector Domestic supply Reduced import bills and lower fossil fuel price risk Long-term security Climate change mitigation and local pollution reduction More secure and resilient system Risks Exposure to weather and climate variability and uncertainty System flexibility System-wide approach to renewables integration Smarter and stronger grids Improved demand side response Increased storage capacity More flexible (RE) generation

5 The integration challenge Properties of variable renewable energy (VRE) Flexibility of other power system components yrs Variable Grids Generation Uncertain sec Non-synchronous 100s km Location constrained Storage Demand Side 1 km Modularity Low short-run cost 5

6 Three pillars of system transformation Technology spread 1. Geographic Let wind and spread solar play their part Design of power plants System friendly VRE 3. Take a system wide-strategic approach to investments! 2. Make better use of what you have Investments Operations 6

7 Importance of grids BRAZIL EUROPE km km Interconnected continental-scale balancing areas smoothen out variability and allow to exploit seasonal complementarities

8 Country/ Area A Border = seam Country/ Area B Policy and regulatory framework 2 Policies Policy and regulatory framework 1 Interconnectors 3 Operational rules / Markets OECD/IEA 2015

9 1 Interconnectors: developing new lines Projects of common interest Electricity and Smart Grids, Oct 2014 Note: CEF = Connecting Europe Facility Source: EU commission OECD/IEA 2015

10 Missousri Wisconsin Iowa Minesota Nebraska North Dakota Michigan Indiana Ohio Kentucky Illinois Virginia Tenessee Maryland Delaware Pennsylvania 2 Policies: regulation of reliability often fragmented North America: reliability regulation PJM and MISO: States covered and NERC Regions Federal Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ISO/RTO MISO PJM State New Jesey Region MRO RFC SERC/RFC RFC National Electric Reliability Council EU: Security of supply directive (2005/89/EC) Member states are responsible for electricity security Member states shall take appropriate measures to maintain a balance between the demand for electricity and the availability of generation capacity OECD/IEA 2015

11 3 Markets: coordinated generation adequacy Remaining capacity by 2020 in the best estimate scenario (ENTSO-E Scenario B) Remaining capacity by 2020 ENTSO-E average: 11% Source: ENTSO-E (2013) Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast OECD/IEA 2015 By 2020, some countries will have excess capacity and others a capacity shortage.

12 Going beyond reserve margins: Pentalateral Forum (PLEF) Adequacy Report Step towards a harmonised regional adequacy assessment Common dataset based on same assumptions, collected and prepared by the PLEF TSOs Probabilistic assessment of Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) using simulation of a large set of scenarios Source: PLEF Adequacy Report

13 More than just available capacity in a given moment Measuring resource adequacy at high shares of VRE 1. Downward ramping capability 2. Minimum generation flexibility 3. Upward ramping capability 4. Peaking capability Source: Optimal Investment in Power System Flexibility, Olson et al, 2013 Appropriate pricing of flexibility key 14

14 Centralised vs decentralised Markets Schematic representation of ERCOT and German (EPEX Spot) market design Future and forward / OTC Day ahead Intra-day Balancing 6:00 10:00 13:30 18:00 13:00 14:00 Hour of operation 15:00 ERCOT Unit bid Unit schedule adjustment period Gate closure Day ahead price Real time price 12:00 13:50 15:00 13:15 GERMANY Portfolio bid Portfolio bid Gate closure Day ahead price Intra-day price Balancing price (ex post) Portfolio vs unit specific bidding may lead to different performance for integrating high shares of VRE OECD/IEA

15 Conclusions Europe bound to see highest shares of wind and solar PV generation globally according to long-term IEA scenarios Wind and solar PV have direct energy security benefits but also bring new challenges A more flexible system is key for secure and cost-effective integration; this also increases system resilience Systematic expansion of grid infrastructure key element but other aspects of system planning and operation need to follow along Markets needed to optimise use of scarce grid capacities and incentivise required flexibility to deal with new operational paradigm OECD/IEA

16 OECD/IEA