Ocean Fertilization Overview

Transcription

1 2009/MRCWG/026 Agenda Item: 7 Ocean Fertilization Overview Purpose: Information Submitted by: Canada 22 nd Marine Resource Conservation Working Group Meeting Vancouver, Canada 1-3 June 2009

2 Ocean Fertilization Overview Prepared for APEC Marine Resource Conservation Working Group Vancouver June 2, 2009 Robin Brown Manager, Ocean Science Division Institute of Ocean Sciences Fisheries and Oceans Canada Sidney, B.C. Ocean Fertilization Why? There are two widely cited rationales: Increase production for fish (a.k.a. ocean nourishment) Mitigate climate change by sequestration of carbon dioxide to the deep ocean

3 How does it work? Add macronutrients (typically nitrogen) to nutrient-poor areas Direct addition Pumping deep water to the surface (OTEC) Add micronutrients (typically iron) to areas where primary production is limited by lack of iron (as opposed to lack of nitrate) Ocean fertilization to increase fisheries yield Increase primary productivity (phytoplankton to generate more zooplankton and finally fish) 1 Tonne Nitrogen => 260kg fish * Problems include can t control which parts of food webs are stimulated low transfer efficiencies (10%?) between trophic levels large volumes of fertilizers required noxious or even toxic phytoplankton negative impacts of organic deposition (e.g. coral reefs) ; anoxia ownership of any fish produced An agricultural model

4 Experience from fertilizing large lakes Since the 1950s, some oligotrophic lakes in North America have been fertilized to increase size/biomass of sockeye smolts 21/21 showed increased chlorophyll a 16/16 showed increased zooplankton biomass 16/16 showed increased smolt size (weight) 11/13 showed increased smolt biomass 3/3 showed that fertilization led to increased smolt biomass and increased marine survival K.D. Hyatt, D.J. McQueen, K.S. Shortreed, and D.P. Rankin Environ. Rev./Dossiers environ. 12(3): (2004) Experience from fertilizing large lakes problems and issues inappropriate phytoplankton were stimulated Too big/poor food source for zooplankton Noxious blue-green algae salmon smolts are outcompeted Large invertebrates (mysids) Small fish (sticklebacks)

5 Nitrogen Fertilization in the Open Ocean Ocean Nourishment Corporation has proposed fertilization of areas off Australia and the Philippines (Sulu Sea) planning to introduce nutrients to the photic zone of the ocean to increase the sustainable fish stocks and mitigate climate change by capturing and storing carbon dioxide in the deep ocean. Permit (Environmental Compliance Certificate) denied by Philippines Department of Environmental and Natural Resources in November, Ocean Fertilization to sequester carbon why? 380 CO2 Concentration (ppmv) Highest concentration in last 650,000 years

6 Mitigation Objective An objective for meaningful mitigation of climate change through 'Geoengineering' measures may be stated: To sequester CO 2 in sufficient quantity and for a sufficient time period to make a significant reduction in the rate of increase of o atmospheric CO 2 in a verifiable manner, without deleterious unintended side effects. Iron fertilization to sequester carbon where? From: Denman and Peña, In: The Changing Ocean Carbon Cycle, CUP.

7 Does this really work? Iron Fertilization Experiments Fe addition Surface Nitrate (mmol-n m -3 ) Boyd et al Science 315 So why all the fuss? We URGENTLY need to reduce the rate of increase of CO 2 in the atmosphere Reducing emissions and sequestration are the tools There might be a market for carbon credits for material sequestered in the deep ocean. Somebody might be able to make money generating and trading these credits.

8 What do the scientists say? Success is equivocal You might not be able to get rid of that much carbon It might not stay gone as long as you would like You would have to keep on doing it It will be hard to verify The impacts of sustained fertilization have not been studied The IPCC Working Group III report on Mitigation of Climate Change describes ocean fertilization as speculative and unproven, with the risk of unknown side effects. What do lawyers AND scientists say? - London Convention/London Protocol Statements of Concern [November 2007] The Scientific Groups discussed several submissions relating to iron fertilization of the oceans to sequester CO 2, as part of their agenda, and issued the following statement: "Large-scale fertilization of ocean waters using micro-nutrients such as iron to stimulate phytoplankton growth in order to sequester carbon dioxide is the subject of recent commercial interest. The Scientific Groups of the London Convention and the London Protocol take the view that knowledge about the effectiveness and potential environmental impacts of ocean iron fertilization currently is insufficient to justify large-scale operations.

9 LC/LP Evaluation Considerations Amounts and impacts of iron and any other materials Impacts of gases produced by the plankton bloom or during its decomposition Impacts of bacterial decay, including oxygen reductions Risk/impacts of harmful algal blooms from iron fertilization Impacts on marine ecosystem, communities and species Amounts and timescales of sequestration in water and sediments Estimated carbon mass balance What do the policy-makers say? Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) COP 9 Decision IX/16 - Biodiversity and climate change [May, 2008] Welcomes the decision of the London Convention/London Protocol parties Endorsed Statement of Concern regarding iron fertilization Urges states to use utmost caution around large-scale fertilization proposals Large-scale operations not currently scientifically justified Urges parties and other governments to act in accordance with LC/LP Requests Parties and urges others to cease/withhold iron fertilization activities until there is adequate science and regulatory mechanisms except small scale research within coastal waters.

10 The International Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO speaks The restriction of experiments to coastal waters appears to be a new, arbitrary, and counterproductive limitation. The most useful ocean fertilization experiments to date have been performed in open ocean environments, as this is where marine productivity is most commonly limited by micronutrients. There is no scientific basis for limiting such experiments to coastal environments. More from the LC/LP [October 2008] Adopted the language from the CBD Modified it with input from the IOC (removes the coastal restriction) Agrees on a case-by-case assessment of research projects Agrees to develop an Assessment Framework Agrees that ocean fertilization activities other than legitimate scientific research should not be permitted*

11 The LOHAFEX Controversy January 2009 A multi-national research experiment in the Southern Ocean in January 2009 LOHA is Hindi for iron; FEX for Fertilization EXperiment Conducted from the Polarstern, belonging to the Alfred Wegener Institute Conducted by highly reputable scientists from highly reputable institutions (AWI and NOI - India) Not substantially different from pervious iron fertilization experiments No commercial involvement A STORM of controversy! Where do we go from here? Leadership on this issue currently lies with the LC/LP and its various working groups Issues include: How to regulate (or the equivalent) scientific experiments? (the legal part) What is a legitimate scientific experiment? How would this be evaluated? (the science part) Does size matter? Who will do the evaluation? Will opportunity for commercial gain corrupt the scientific process or subvert the control or management of these activities?

12 But maybe this is all irrelevant what about ocean acidification? Ocean acidification caused by oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO 2 is emerging as a major (and largely unanticipated) problem. You can find the trend in existing ocean data Even with reduced CO 2 emissions, the ocean will continue to absorb CO 2 for a long, long time. To the extent that iron fertilization is successful, it will ADD to the problem Iron Fertilization to increase CO 2 in the oceans is a poor mitigation measure Global warming s evil twin, ocean acidification, is the most insidious threat to our ocean ecosystems, said Miyoko Sakashita, an attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity, who petitioned the EPA to examine the issue. Mitigation Objective An objective for meaningful mitigation of climate change through 'Geoengineering' measures may be stated: To sequester CO 2 in sufficient quantity and for a sufficient time period to make a significant reduction in the rate of increase of o atmospheric CO 2 in a verifiable manner, without deleterious unintended side effects.

13 Further Reading Science 315, 612(2007)- Mesoscale Iron Enrichment Experiments : Synthesis and Future Directions. P.W. Boyd et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series #364 (2008) a thematic collection of linked papers Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre Ocean Fertilisation: Science and Policy Issues