Perspectives on Urban Water Resilience: The Safe & SuRe Project

Transcription

1 International Perspectives on Water Resilience : a Bristol Workshop, Tuesday October 11, 2016 Perspectives on Urban Water Resilience: The Safe & SuRe Project David Butler Professor of Water Engineering Director, Centre for Water Systems University of Exeter

2 Outline Safe & SuRe vision and fellowship Definitions Relationships Intervention framework Example performance evaluation Conclusions

3 The vision Updating 19 th century Fail Safe thinking based on: apparently unlimited resources (water, energy) catering for unrestrained demand assuming a stable climate exploiting and controlling nature. with 21st century SuRe thinking: building resilience to operationalise sustainability managing change, uncertainty and variability dealing with the unknown becoming Safe to Fail.

4 The fellowship Aim: To develop a new paradigm for Safe & SuRe urban water management in the UK in response to emerging challenges and global uncertainties. Emphasis: How existing water infrastructure can be better used, managed, planned, operated and redesigned to cope with the coming perfect storm. Duration: 5 years, Funding: 1.5m, EPSRC Team: Butler, Farmani, Fu, Ward + researchers + PhD students

5 Organisation VISION PARADIGM OBJECTIVE A OBJECTIVE B OBJECTIVE C OBJECTIVE D Vision & context Frame & options Evaluation Implementation WP1: Vision WP2: Concepts WP3: Threats & impacts WP4: Scenarios WP5: Assessment framework WP6: Options WP7: Goals & indicators WP8: Benchmarks WP9: Multiple systems WP10: Real system WP11: Conflicts WP13: Transitions WP14: Extremes WP15: SuRe living WP16: SuRe planning WP12: Links E: Academic engagement F: Stakeholder collaboration

6 Safe & SuRe Reliability / Safety Resilience Property vs. Performance Sustainability

7 Reliable

8 Reliability key properties

9 erformance deficit Level of service or design standard Reliability - performance Reliable / Safe The degree to which the system minimises level of service failure frequency over its design life when subject to standard loading Rel = min (failure: probability) Design life Time

10 Resilient

11 Level of service Relationships? Level of service Safe Resilient

12 Resilience key properties

13 Performance deficit Resilience - performance Resilient The degree to which the system minimises level of service failure magnitude and duration over its design life when subject to exceptional conditions Level of service Res = min (failure: magnitude, duration) Design life Time

14 Sustainable

15 The unknown destination? BUTLER, D., MEMON, F.A, MAKROPOULOS, C., SOUTHALL, A. & CLARKE, L. (2010). WaND. Guidance on Water Cycle Management for New Developments, CIRIA Report C690, ISBN , 143 pp. 15

16 Sustainability key properties

17 Performance deficit Sustainability - performance The degree to which the system maintains levels of service in the long-term whilst maximising social, economic and environmental goals Level of service Sus = max (capital: social, economic, environmental) Sustainable Design life Time

18 Pulling it all together: Safe & SuRe Sustainable Resilient Safe/reliable Safe & SuRe BUTLER, D., FARMANI, R., FU, G., WARD, S., DIAO, K. & ASTARAIE-IMANI, M (2014). A new approach to urban water management: Safe and SuRe, 16th Conference on Water Distribution System Analysis, WDSA, Procedia Engineering.

19 Pulling it all together: Safe & SuRe Performance deficit Level of service Resilient Reliable Safe & SuRe Sustainable Design life Time

20 Safe & SuRe framework emphasis on intervention Threat/hazard stress/shock Urban Water socio-technical system Mitigate Safe & SuRe Impact - Level of service Adapt Consequences Climate Water supply Society Energy Flooding Economy Population Regulation Learn River water quality Cope Environment Butler, D. Ward, S. Sweetapple, C. Astaraie-Imani, M., Diao, K., Farmani, R. & Fu, G. (2016) Reliable, resilient and sustainable water management: the Safe & SuRe approach, Global Challenges, DOI: /gch2.1010

21 Potential strategies: mitigation/ adaptation/coping/learning Low tech (e.g. sustainable drainage). High tech (e.g. smart, real time control). Integrated (e.g. WSUD, water cycle management). Scale (e.g. centralised, decentralised, hybrid). Flexibility (e.g. option portfolios, incremental build) Fit for purpose water (e.g. rain, grey, black, yellow). Policy change (e.g. planning controls, building regs). Behavioural change (e.g. floodproofing, insurance).

22 Range of intervention strategies Combined sewer centralised storage Sewer separation Roof disconnection / water butts Urban creep control / green infrastructure Road permeable pavements / SuDS Off-grid housing

23 Integrated urban wastewater system Sewer System River Wastewater Treatment Plant

24 Rainfall Depth [mm/day] Modelling and simulation 35 Annual Rainfall Timeseries Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

25 Safe & SuRe performance indicators Objective Reliability Resilience Sustainability Flooding Water Quality (DO and AMM) CSO % time flood free Flood volume (m 3 ) Number of properties affected Time flooded (hours) Material damage ( ) % time >4 mg/l 6 h minimum (mg/l) Impact to aquatic % time <4 mg/l 99%ile (mg/l) resources (fisheries, fresh water) Frequency of spills (annual events) Annual spill (m 3 ) Time of spills (hours) Aesthetic and health impact of spills Energy - - Operational tco 2 Flood volume (m 3 ) Properties affected River flood downstream % time flood free Time flooded (hours) Material damage ( ) Cost - - Capital cost ( ) Acceptability - - High-med-low

26 Safe & SuRe interventions? CREEP COMBINED SUSTAINABILITY RESILIENCE RELIABILITY ROADS ROOFS OFF_GRID SEPARATE D-N REGRET SCORE CASAL-CAMPOS, A., FU, G., BUTLER, D., MOORE, A. (2015). An integrated environmental assessment of green and gray infrastructure strategies for robust decision making, Environmental Science & Technology, 49, 14, , DOI: /es506144f.

27 Conclusions Urban water systems need to be: Reliable to provide needed services, but not at any cost. Resilient to meet the unexpected and the extreme but with emphasis on safe to fail. Sustainable to ensure long term performance within planetary and social limits. How? By developing, evaluating and implementing Safe & SuRe socio-technical systems. There is no one size fits all solution or strategy.

28 Conclusions Why? To manage unprecedented change, uncertainty and variability. To prepare for the journey into the unknown which we call the future.

29 International Perspectives on Water Resilience : a Bristol Workshop, Tuesday October 11, 2016 Perspectives on Urban Water Resilience: The Safe & SuRe Project David Butler d.butler@exeter.ac.uk