The Missing Piece in Climate Policy: Renewable Heating and Cooling in the US

Transcription

1 The Missing Piece in Climate Policy: Renewable Heating and Cooling in the US BASEA Forum Chad Laurent December 10, 2009

2 Not Much Change in Renewable Sources, High % of Biomass Primary Energy Production by Source, (Renewable Energy) 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% % o f th e N a tio n a l P rim a ry E n e rg y Production Wind Solar/PV Geothermal Biomass Hydro- electric Power

3 Stabilization Wedges Electricity end-use efficiency GtC Other end-use efficiency Passenger vehicle efficiency Other transport efficiency Renewables CCS and Supply efficiency Based on Inconvenient Truth slide show; after Pacala and Socolow, 2004; ARI CarBen3 Spreadsheet

4 CA: 20% by 2010 WA: 15% by 2020 OR: 25% by 2025 NV: 20% by 2015 AZ: 15% by 2025 RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY UT: 20% by 2025 MT: 15% by 2015 CO: 20% by 2020 NM: 20% by 2020 ND: 10% by 2015 SD: 10% by 2015 TX: 5880 MW by 2015 MN: 25% by 2025 IA: 105 MW by 1999 WI: 10% by 2015 MO: 11% by 2020 IL:25% by 2013 VT: Incremental Growth NH: 23.8% by % by 2013 PA: 18% by 2020 VA: 12% by 2022 NC: 12,5% by 2021 ME: 47% by 2000 DC: 11% by 2022 MA: 4% by 2009 RI: 16% by 2019 CT: 27% by 2020 NJ: 22.5% by 2020 DE: 20% by 2019 MD: 9.5% by States & DC with RPS 8 States considering RPS HI: 20% by 2020 Source: DSIRE (2008) 17 States new or updated since 2007

5 Source: Brown et al. (2006) Renewable Fuels

6 US Primary Energy Consumption 40 Thermal/Other Primary By Segment Residential 20% ' Industrial 68% ' Commercial 12% Trans. Elec. Thermal/ Other Primary Source: New England Wood Pellet, LLC, based on US EIA data

7 Heating and Cooling in the US 21% 26% 9% Space Heating Space Cooling Water Heating 57% Space Heating Space Cooling Water Heating 70% 17% 67% of Residential Energy Use 33% of Commercial Energy Use Electricity = 2.33 quads Fossil Fuels = 8.45 quads

8 Anticipating Climate Targets post-2009: Renewable Heating and Cooling Sources

9 Biomass Heating 3% growth between 2002 and 2005 But data limited What fuels count as renewable?

10 Pellet Heat Source: Peska-Blanchard et al. (2007) 21% annual average since % increase Residential & heating only

11 Biofuels Legislation for bioheat under consideration in MN, MA, NM, NH Quality problems could create short-term term opportunity for heating blends U.S. Biodiesel Production (EIA, 2007) 4,500 4,000 3,500 '000 Barrels 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, US Biodiesel Production

12 Solar Heating US solar water and air heating markets collapsed in 1986 Currently 1,554 MWth SWH installed Excluding 18,844 MWth pool heating (#1!)

13 Recent Solar Thermal Growth Solar Water Heating - Total Capacity in Operation (MWth) Glazed Collectors Only United States M W th EU Countries (Spain - Austria - Germany)

14 Spain and Beyond Barcelona passes construction mandate in 2004 (27 MW in 5 years) National law in Spain in 2006 (second after Israel in 1980) Germany adopts in 2008, along with Euro 500 million national rebate program

15 Solar Water Heating per capita Total capacity per 1,000 inhabitants [kw th] Cyprus Israel Barbados Aus tria Greece Turkey Australia Germany Denmark Taiwan China Japan Slovenia Switzerland M alta Luxembourg Portugal Sweden New Zealand Netherlands Spain Braz il T u n is ia France Slovak Republic Albania Italy United States

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18 Credit: Paradigma

19 Geothermal Heating 650 MW direct geothermal 8,000 MW geothermal heat pumps (#1!) 11% annual market growth 50,000-60,000 systems each year

20 A Patchwork of Policies States without incentives for: Photovoltaics: 3 SWH: 6 Geothermal: 14 Biomass: 41 rebates, performance-based incentives, tax credits, tax exemptions, loan programs

21 RPS with Heating Technologies NH: 23.8% by 2025 NV: 20% by 2015 IL:25% by 2013 PA: 18% by 2020 CT: 27% by 2020 DE: 20% by 2019 AZ: 15% by 2025 MO: 11% by 2020 NC: 12.5% by 2021 TX: 5880 MW by States with RE heat RPS HI: 20% by 2020

22 Eligibility Heating in Renewable Targets SWH (all) Geothermal (5) Biomass/CHP (4) All but Arizona are electricity offset only New Hampshire is considering a thermal RPS Biodiesel heating blend legislation (MA, MN, NM, NH)

23 Barriers Lack of awareness among the public (and solar s s black eye) Lack of awareness among policy makers regarding environmental impact and policy options Little recognition of renewable heating and cooling as a single sector, and little industry coordination or joint planning Confusion as to whether technologies are generation, DSM, or both Lack of national greenhouse gas framework No national, centralized grid to target with policy and no centralized multi-fuel utility to obligate Different technologies perform different functions and offset different fuels Difficult to measure and verify

24 The Missing Piece in Climate Policy: Renewable Heating and Cooling in Germany and the U.S.

25 Chad Laurent (617)