U.S. Climate Change Policy

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1 U.S. Climate Change Policy Dr. Harlan Watson Senior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative U.S. Department of State Joint Meeting of Global Environment Subcommittee and Expert Committee to Study Future Framework Committee of Environment Industrial Structural Council Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Tokyo, Japan April 19, Outline U.S. Climate/Geographic/Population/Economic Profile U.S. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Data: U.S. Business-As-Usual (BAU) Energy and CO 2 Emissions Projections: Stabilizing Atmospheric CO 2 /GHG Concentrations U.S. Climate Change Policy Components U.S. GHG Intensity Goal, Rationale, Advantages U.S. Climate Change Policy Elements U.S. International Cooperation: Bilateral Cooperation, Technology Initiatives and Science Initiative Some Thoughts About the Future 2

2 U.S. Climate/Geographic/Population/ Economic Profile U.S. Climate Conditions: Diverse climatic zones representative of all major regions of the world (polar, temperate, and semi-tropical, and tropical). Area: ~ 920 million hectares (U.S. Government owns ~ 20% overall, but much larger proportion in many of the western States). U.S. Land Use (1997): Forest-Use Land=28%; and Urban Land=3%. Grassland, Pasture, and Range =26%; Cropland Used for Crops=15%, Special Uses Land (national and state parks and wildlife areas, defense installations, and rural transportation)= 13%; Miscellaneous Other Lands (rural residential, marshes, open swamps, desert, tundra)=10%; Urban Land=3%; Cropland Used for Pasture =3%; and Cropland Idled=3%. Population (2003): ~291 million 3rd largest, after China (~1.3 billion) and India (~1 billion). Low Population Density: ~ 30/km 2 (China ~ 135/km 2, Germany ~ 235/km 2, Japan 335/km 2 ). U.S GDP: = $10.5 Trillion, growing at an average annual rate of about 3% since U.S. Income/Capita: ~ $27, U.S. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Profile: 2002 Methane 9% 163 MMTCE Other CO2 2% 47 MMTCE HFCs, PFCs, & SF6 Nitrous Oxide 2% 6% 38 MMTCE 113 MMTCE Energy Related CO2 81% 1,577 MMTCE Carbon Dioxide Fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Methane Animal husbandry, rice cultivation, landfills, coal mining, and natural gas production and distribution. Nitrous Oxide Fertilization of soils, animal husbandry and mobile combustion. Other Gases HFCs as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances in air conditioning applications, PFCs from aluminum smelting and semiconductor manufacture, and SF6 from electric system insulation and magnesium production. Source: EPA, INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: , April 15,

3 U.S. GHG Emissions by Gas: Tg CO2 Eq HFCs, PFCs, & SF 6 Nitrous Oxide Methane Carbon Dioxide 6,129 6,086 6,202 6,311 6,431 6,485 6,687 6,764 6,790 6,853 7,038 6,884 6, Source: EPA, INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: , April 15, Annual Percent Change in U.S. GHG Emissions: % 2% 1% 1.9% 3.1% 2.7% 1.9% 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0% -1% -0.7% -2% -3% -2.2% Source: EPA, INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: , April 15,

4 U.S. Sectoral GHG Emission Trends: ,500 Electricity Generation 2,000 Transportation (Tg CO 2 Eq.) 1,500 1,000 Industry Agriculture 500 Commercial Residential Source: EPA, INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: , April 15, U.S. GHG Emissions with Electricity Use Allocated to Sectors: ,500 2,000 Industrial Transportation Tg CO 2 Eq. 1,500 1,000 Commercial Residential Agriculture Source: EPA, INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: , April 15,

5 U.S. GHG Emissions and Economic Trends: Index (1990 = 100) Real GDP Population (+1.2%/year) Emissions per capita (-0.2%/year) Emissions per $GDP Source: EPA, INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: , April 15, (+3.0%/year) (-2.0%/year) 9 U.S. Business-As-Usual (BAU) Projected Energy Profile: Quads Fossil fuels provide 85.6% of energy (~ 76% of electricity) Oil 39.0% Coal 22.2% 22.7% Gas 22.7% 23.9% +28.4% Renewables 6.0% Nuclear 8.3% Coal 23.2% 20.0% Oil 40.3% Gas 27.6% 23.6% Quads Renewables 6.6% Nuclear 6.2% Ocean By 2025, reliance on fossil fuels could grow to 87.1% (~ 80% of electricity). Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2004, Energy Information Administration (EIA) 10

6 U.S. BAU Projected CO 2 Emissions Profile: ,562.5 MMTCE Fossil fuels provide 85.6% of energy (~ 76% of electricity)) Residential 20.7% Coal Industrial 22.2% 29.2% Gas 22.7% Commercial 17.6% Transportation 33.5% +29.6% Residential 19.0% Commercial 19.3% Coal 20.0% Transportation Industrial 26.4% Gas 35.4% 27.6% ,220.5 MMTCE By 2025, reliance on fossil fuels could grow to 87.1% (~ 80% of electricity). Ocean Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2004, Energy Information Administration (EIA) 11 Stabilizing CO 2 Concentrations Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Stabilizing the concentration of CO 2 is a very long term problem. Stabilization means that GLOBAL emissions must peak in the decades ahead and then decline indefinitely thereafter. Source: Jae Edmonds 12

7 Stabilizing CO 2 Base Case and Gap Technologies The Gap Assumed Advances In Fossil Fuels Energy intensity Nuclear Renewables Gap Technologies Carbon Capture and Disposal Hydrogen and Advanced Transportation Biotechnologies Source: Jae Edmonds 13 Challenge is Formidable: Can t t be Done with Existing Technologies Today s Technology Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton/Year of Mitigation Coal Plants Replace 1,000 conventional 500-MW plants with zeroemission power plants Geologic Sequestration Install 3,500 Sleipners, at 1 Mt of CO2 per year Nuclear Build GW plants (in lieu of unsequestered coal) Efficiency Deploy 1 billion cars at 40 mpg instead of 20 mpg Wind Install 750 x current U.S. wind generation (in lieu of unsequestered coal) Geographic Limitations, Storage Solar PV Install 4,500 x current U.S. solar generation (in lieu of unsequestered coal) Major Issues Technical, Social, & Economic Viability Technical, Social, & Economic Viability Economics, Safety, Nonproliferation, Distributed opportunity that is hard to capture Geographic Limitations, Storage Source: Rick Bradley, IEA 14

8 Technology Breakthroughs Are Essential to Stabilizing Concentrations For example: } Filling The Technology Gap Source: Jae Edmonds 15 U.S. Climate Change Policy Components Three Components Slowing the Growth of Net Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions National Goal: Reduce GHG Intensity by 18% Over Next 10 Years. Laying the Groundwork for Current and Future Action Investments in Science, Technology, and Institutions Working with Other Nations to Develop an Efficient and Coordinated Response International Cooperation. 16

9 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Intensity Goal GHG Intensity (Tons of Carbon/Dollar) = GHG Emissions (Tons of Carbon) Economic Output (Dollars) Reduce GHG Emission Intensity 18% Over the Next Decade 190 No Improvement (183 tons in 2002) Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent Per Million Dollars GDP, 2001 Dollars Current Efforts (14%) National Goal (18% decline to 151 tons in 2012) Year 17 Rationale for GHG Intensity Goal Part of long-term slow-stop-reverse strategy. Set an ambitious but achievable short-term goal, consistent with a long-term strategy. Take policy steps to reach the goal. Advance science and develop technology for long-term solutions without risking economy in short-term. 18

10 Advantages of an Intensity Approach Reduces emissions without hurting economic growth. Reduces cost uncertainty High economic growth rates raise emissions and make an absolute target more costly to achieve. Can be set at any level of stringency, providing more flexibility for countries growing at different rates. 19 U.S. Climate Change Policy Elements More than 60 Federal (and many more State) programs some mandatory, some incentive-based, some voluntary to help slow U.S. GHG emissions growth. Expanded use of clean energy/energy efficiency technologies and transportation sector improvements. Increased incentives for carbon sequestration. Improvements in the existing voluntary GHG registry, along with transferable credits for real emission reductions. Unprecedented funding for climate change-related programs. International cooperation Enhanced support for international bilateral cooperation and the developing world. 20

11 International Cooperation President Bush s June 11, 2001 and February 14, 2002 climate change policy announcements highlighted the importance of international cooperation to develop an effective and efficient global response to the complex and long-term challenge of climate change. I am today committing the United States of America to work within the United Nations framework and elsewhere to develop with our friends and allies and nations throughout the world an effective and science-based response to the issue of global warming. President Bush, June 11, 2001 I will intend to work with nations, especially the poor and developing nations, to show the world that there is a better approach, that we can build our future prosperity along a cleaner and better path. President Bush, February 14, International: Bilateral Cooperation Developed Countries Australia Canada European Union (EU) Italy Japan New Zealand Russian Federation Developing Countries Central American Countries (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama) China India Mexico Republic of Korea South Africa 22

12 International: U.S. Technology Initiatives Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF) Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, European Commission, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Russian Federation, South Africa, UK, and US. International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE) Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Commission, France, Germany, Iceland, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Russian Federation, South Korea, UK, and US. Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Argentina, Brazil,, Canada, France, EURATOM, France, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, UK, and US. 23 Some Thoughts About the Future Any future climate regime must be grounded in reality: Climate change is a long-term issue century to millennium scale. Fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source for decades. Existing technologies cannot stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations. Technology breakthroughs are essential to stabilizing concentrations. Economic growth must be maintained particularly for developing countries. Climate change is a global problem, requiring a global effort. Must be encouraging and facilitating, rather than punitive. 24