The Natural Graphite Report 2012 Data, analysis and forecast for the next five years

Transcription

1 C EW GI N TE RA ST U ST DY R FO The Natural Graphite Report Data, analysis and forecast for the next five years New, original data from Industrial Minerals Unique country supply reviews including: China, Brazil, India, North Korea, and Canada Major demand drivers Li-ion batteries, refractories, & emerging markets How will prices react? Historical analysis and forecast Demand destruction risks Critique of the graphene revolution Underground mining at Skaland Graphite in Norway. Reiner Schaufler.

2 The Natural Graphite Report : Analysis and forecast of supply and demand for the next five years Graphite s new era of demand Natural graphite is entering a new era of demand. Faced by a perfect storm of factors the world s graphite supply is in uncertain times. Graphite s diversity has secured a strong suite of traditional end use markets over the last 100 years. Refractories, metallurgy, lubricants, and carbon products such as car brake pads and pencils have carved out a substantial business for many producers around the world. But it is the emergence of the Li-ion battery era that has the potential to turn the industry on its head. Portable electronic devices mobile phones, ipads, power tools and large scale energy storage all favour Li-ion technology. It is electric vehicles that hold the potential demand clout that could revolutionise the graphite space. The potential for graphite does not stop there. The wild card is the new super-material graphene. Derived from a single layer of graphite, graphene is over 100 times stronger than steel and more conductive than copper Global Flake Graphite Production in while being incredibly light. The applications of graphene are endless, but it is yet to be commercialised. Very soon, the industry may not have enough natural graphite to go around. The Natural Graphite Report reviews every major graphite producing company around the world, building from the bottom up data and analysis of the industry. It also contains a focus on the commercialisation of graphene, its production and demand potential. China The world is at the mercy of Chinese supply which accounted for 79% of the world s natural graphite in. China s graphite production power was on display when huge volumes of new supply came onto the world market rendering smaller mines in Canada, Mexico, Europe, and Australia uneconomic. But this was 20 years ago. Now China has turned. Its focus is on serving its own domestic needs as well as a push to manufacturer higher value goods. China s desire to build a value-chain means it no longer wants to be the source of raw materials, but the source of processed and finished products. The situation holds the potential to be a graphite gamechanger. A generation of underinvestment in mines around the world is now being felt. But much exploration is underway particularly in Canada and Brazil and new mines are coming. But how long will this new supply take to come to fruition? Will the quality and volumes be sufficient? Is there room for more players? Are there already too many? Prices up 140% This supply/demand situation has been simmering for the last five years. Since, the price of high quality flake grades of natural graphite have increased by 140% as a result of Chinese policy and struggling production elsewhere. The price pattern is recurring: that of a stabilisation followed by an increase. One thing seems certain graphite is not losing its value. graphite market share by country North Korea 3% India 4% Brazil 8% Canada 2% Other 3% China 80% Source: Industrial Minerals The talk in and outside of the industry is on what the future will hold for natural graphite. The rate of exploration in the second half of has levels not seen in a generation and Canada is leading the way on new projects. The unknowns that are electric vehicles and large scale energy storage together with China at a rapid stage of economic development, leaves the future for the key raw material uncertain. 1 China 2 Brazil 3 India 4 North Korea 5 Canada 6 Norway 7 Zimbabwe 8 Ukraine 9 Uzbekistan 10 Russia 11 Czech Republic Source: Industrial Minerals Industrial Minerals is the world s leading source of natural graphite pricing data. Flake Graphite Price Trend * US Dollar Value/tonne Simon Moores, Industrial Minerals smoores@indmin.com * +80 mesh, 94-97% C = High price = Low price Source: Industrial Minerals 2017 PRICE FORECAST OUT TO 2020 FOR HIGH UALITY FLAKE, FLAKE GRAPHITE, & AMORPHOUS

3 Natural Graphite Report Supply & Exploration North Korea The Natural Graphite Report :Projection Supply The report 75,000 RISKS COUNTRY SUPPLY ANALYSIS Major threats to demand Active explorers Natural Graphite Report Producing mines Includes: China, Brazil, India, North Korea, Canada, Mexico, Austria & Norway Natural Graphite Report Graphite production rank Number of active miners Number of active explorers Output in Estimated output in tonnes tonnes Supply & Exploration North Korea Production area Supply Projection tonnes per annum North Korea Untapped deposits Supply & Exploration North Korea Critical insight before you invest CHINA Province by province analysis Risk analysis Review of government plans for graphite Five year outlook: flake & amorphous 75,000 OMyeongji Co tonnes per annum 15,000 FIVE-YEAR DEMAND FORECAST Sector by sector analysis Domestic production Global share Global share (Excl China) Batteries: Li-ion impact from electric vehicles, portable energy, large scale storage FIVE YEAR SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Myeongji Co 100% North Korea: 2.40% ( tonnes) North Korea: 11.9% Rest of the world: 97.6% (1.222m tonnes) ( tonnes) Rest of the world: 88.1% (222,000 tonnes) By country 15,000 By region 0 0 Natural Flake Graphite Derivatives Refractories Car brake pads, lubricants, metallurgy markets Globally Emerging uses: nuclear reactors, graphene Spherodized graphite, the anode for Li Ion batteries Year Source: Industrial Minerals Research Source: Industrial Minerals Research 207 ORIGINAL, NEW DATA FOR Year Production, prices, demand Mechanical?????? from Industrial70,000 First-hand data Minerals Direct from the industry Unrivalled, independent insight into natural graphite No bullish figure for GRAPHENE Critique of commercialisation 207 Prices and applications Potential demand impact Excavation Purification 28.5 kg 99.95% Source: Industrial Minerals Research separation kg OUT TO 2020 PRICE FORECAST 5% flake graphite High quality Flake graphite Spherodization 1980 kg 50% 990 kg 70,000 95%?????? 33 kg grades Amorphous 95% 70% loss No bullish SPECIALIST GRAPHITE Expanded graphite Surface treatment 30 kg Spherical graphite Coated Graphite For 1 EV Car Flotation 1050 kg 95% Milling

4 Table of contents 1. Overview / Executive Summary Untapped Resource Opportunities 2. Critical Material Rating: is graphite a critical material? Africa 3. Flake Vs Amorphous South America 4. Graphite Basics Europe 7. What is graphite? 7.1 Expandable graphite How is it mined and produced? 5b Processors & Distributors (by company) Basic processing routes examples from around the world Non-mining natural graphite majors including: 8. Supply + Exploration by country USA: Asbury Carbon, Superior Graphite Prices overview trends, factors affecting price movements, China Structure: Supply patterns, Performance in ; 5 year supply forecast; Supply Conclusions and production ranking Germany: GK Graphite, LUH, Technografit Spot price quotes over the last year China: Refmin High quality graphite flake forecast Market Uses & Demand Flake graphite forecast 5. Producers South Africa Parts and components car brake pads, carbon brushes, pencils 6.7 Other uses and opportunities agriculture, polymers, and more Specialist Graphite 7.2 Spherical graphite Prices Australia Structure: End Market Review, Demand Direction, Present Demand in tonnes, Forecast by Sector in tonnes Brazil Each section includes: Canada + Anatomy of Graphite s use: where and how it is used in the market What is graphene? + Example grades from around the world industry standard grades Market opportunities Austria Czech Republic China India Mexico North Korea Norway Russia Sri Lanka Turkey Ukraine Uzbekistan Zimbabwe 6.1 Overview 6.2 Refractories Steel, Cement, Ceramics, Glass and Petrochemicals 6. 3 Batteries Electric vehicles, portable energy, large scale storage 6.4 Metallurgy Carbon additives 6.5 Lubricants Simon Moores Graphite Market Specialist, Industrial Minerals BSc (Geology & Geography) Simon has been reporting on, researching and analysing the non-metallic minerals sector since 2006 when he joined Industrial Minerals. He has specialist knowledge in critical and strategic minerals including graphite, lithium and rare earths. Graphite, along with lithium, has been a major focus owing to its new energy uses in batteries. Simon was Consulting Editor on Metal Bulletin Research s Global Lithium Market Outlook in 2009 and. He has chaired conferences and given keynote presentations around the world. He has also been interviewed by international press including London s The Times regarding Chinese control on world graphite production. Simon has visited numerous mines and junior projects around the world including ingdao Haida Graphite in China, Rockwood Lithium (formerly Chemetall) in Silver Peak, Nevada, and American Vanadium also in Nevada. smoores@indmin.com Amorphous forecast 9. Risks to demand destruction 10. Graphene How is it made? R&D and production Price guide 11. Relationship with synthetic graphite Total graphite market share Basics of synthetic Do they compete? 12. Data Pages The most critical data, graphs and charts from the report. Mike O Driscoll Global Head of Research, Industrial Minerals MSc (Mining Geology), BSc (Geology & Geography) by the Society for Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration (SME) in Mike has been writing about and analysing the nonmetallic minerals industry for 25 years. He was Editor from and now heads up Industrial Minerals research and mineral intelligence division. During his career, Mike has visited a wide range of mineral and enduser operations worldwide, and has regularly organised, chaired and presented papers at industry conferences. He was Associate Editor and contributing author to the 7th edition of Industrial Minerals & Rocks, published In, Mike was awarded the prestigious Hal Williams Hardinge Award by the SME. The SME recognised his leadership in the exchange of information with the Chinese minerals sector. Richard Russell Publisher, Industrial Minerals MSc (Marketing with French), BA (French) Richard has worked in publishing for the last 18 years and has covered many industries including law and tax, financial services, advertising and marketing and industrial minerals. He brings a wealth of commercial and management experience to complement the strength and depth of the specialist industry knowledge of the Industrial Minerals team. Richard won a global award for best product innovation at LexisNexis and has vast experience in sales and marketing, business development, product For more information click: awards/viewaward.cfm?category=4&typeid=28 modriscoll@indmin.com management and development and information technology. He was Managing Director of a fastgrowing Anti-Money Laundering compliance business for several years and has experience in M&A in his more recent roles. He joined Industrial Minerals at the end of to help develop both the breadth and depth of specialist services Industrial Minerals brings to the market. rrussell@indmin.com

5 The Natural Graphite Report Data, analysis and forecast for the next 5 years Pre-order Special: Before 30 April $6000 Post-Publication $6399 CORPORATE WORKSHOPS Industrial Minerals will visit your office to present the key findings of The Natural Graphite Report and answer questions in a one day workshop. Focusing on supply, demand, and prices, the workshop is the ideal platform to understand the fundamentals of the natural graphite industry on which to base investment decisions. For more information and specific enquiries contact: Simon Moores smoores@indmin.com Ways to order: Contact: Simon Moores, Industrial Minerals smoores@indmin.com & ahillyard@indmin.com Telephone:

6 Original, new data for Original data & insight from China New supply & existing operations Demand destruction risks Price analysis & forecast Demand outlook Graphene critique