Infrastructure and buildings working group. Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

Transcription

1 Infrastructure and buildings working group David Lapp, FEC, P. Eng. Paul Kovacs Engineers Canada Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

2 Engineers Canada National organization for the engineering profession in Canada Members 12 constituent association that regulate the practice of engineering e.g. Professional Engineers of Ontario Over 280,000 professional engineers in Canada Common approaches for professional qualifications, professional practices and ethical conduct Accredits all undergraduate engineering programs in Canada 271 programs in 43 universities National and international voice of the profession Climate change work since 2001

3 Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR) was established in 1997 by Canada s insurers International Council for Science Centre of Excellence for Integrated Research on Disaster Risk Mission Reduce the risk of loss of life and property damage from severe weather and earthquakes Science to action plan ICLR is a champion for transdisciplinary, evidence-based risk reduction research Located in Toronto and at Western University in London

4 Outline of the presentation What Canadians should expect from climate change The infrastructure and buildings working group Completed projects / Projects underway Focus on PIEVC Questions

5 - Climate change - What can Canada expect? Canada is/will be warmer, wetter and stormier We have means to limit the most irreversible impacts Some impacts can be offset or managed by adaptation

6 1. Number of hot days (>30 C) Source: Casati and Yagouti (2013)

7 2. More extreme rainfall

8 3. More disruptions from disasters

9 Risk management can reduce the impact

10 Working group members David Lapp, Engineers Canada (Co-Chair) Paul Kovacs, ICLR (Co-Chair) Dan Sandink, ICLR (Manager) Pam Kertland, NRCan Tyler Andrews, Infrastructure Can. Patricia King, Province of NFLD Adam Auer, Cement Association Ernest MacGillivray, Province of NB Nathalie Bleau, Ouranos Megan Meany, ICLEI Cindy Choy, Province of Manitoba Dirk Nyland, Province of BC Jenna Craig, Transport Canada Gregory Richardson, Health Can Liam Edwards, Province of BC John Smiciklas, BOMA Jenny Fraser, Province of BC Martin Tremblay, (AANDC) Deborah Harford, Simon Frasor Kari Tyler, Province of BC Ewa Jackson, ICLEI Christine Zimmer, Credit Valley

11 Working group meetings Original groups: Steering, infrastructure and buildings Steering committee August, 2013 Buildings subcommittee December, 2013 Infrastructure subcom. November, 2013 Working group Meeting 4 March, 2014 Meeting 5 June, 2014 Meeting 6 September, 2014 Meeting 7 December, 2014 Meeting 8 Mar, 2015 Meeting 9 June, 2015 Meeting 10 September, 2015 Meeting 11 December, 2015

12 Objectives - infrastructure Objective 1: Building capacity for relevant infrastructure stakeholders to implement climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction options for public infrastructures and the built environment. Objective 2: Providing an outreach function for professionals, policymakers and decision makers to increase knowledge and engagement of best practices in climate change adaptation. Objective 3: Building of evidence to support infrastructure-related modifications to codes, standards and related instruments, and generating supporting information and methods for implementation of adaptation options.

13 Objectives - buildings Objective 1: Building capacity for relevant buildings stakeholders to implement climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction options in new and existing buildings and subdivisions Objective 2: Providing an outreach function for professionals, decision makers and the public to increase knowledge and engagement of best practices in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in new and existing buildings and subdivisions. Objective 3: Building of evidence to support buildings-related modifications to codes, standards and related instruments supporting information and methods for implementation of adaptation options.

14 Completed projects Cities Adapt to Extreme Rainfall (Paul Kovacs et al., ICLR, 2014) Management of Inflow and Infiltration in New Urban Developments (Ted Kesik, ICLR, 2015) IDF Climate Change Tool (Slobodan Simonovic et al., ICLR, 2015) Quick Response Program Launch (ICLR, 2015) Risk Reduction Status of Homes Reconstructed Following Wildfire Disasters (Alan Westhaver, ICLR, 2015) Showcase Homes Program Burlington (ICLR, 2015) Showcase Homes Program Windsor (ICLR, 2015) Building Code Request Wind & Extreme Rainfall (ICLR, 2015) Focus on Sump Pumps publication (ICLR, 2015)

15 20 case studies extreme rainfall Summaries of best practice Developed with municipal staff Canadian examples for Canadians

16 New development best practices Focus on inflow and infiltration Extensive local input Canadian examples for Canadians

17 Tool for adjusting local IDF curves Select local station Select climate model/ensemble Select projection period Calculate results Pre-loaded with Environment Canada data Links to 22 climate models

18 Showcase homes Showcase to media and insurers a home chosen by the municipality and retrofit by ICLR to enhance resilience to local perils Partners include London, Halifax, Vancouver, Ottawa, Edmonton, Montreal, Jasper, Toronto, Hamilton, Moncton, Quebec, Burlington and Windsor

19 Adapt building codes for extremes ICLR has made proposals for the building code

20 Projects underway buildings Mitigating Urban Flood Risk in New Residential Subdivisions (Amec & ICLR, 2016) Mandatory Measures for Lot-Level Urban Flood Risk Reduction (Laura Zizzo & ICLR, 2016) Cities Adapt Extreme Heat 20 case studies (ICLR & Health Canada, 2016) Assessing Reliability and Maintenance Practices for Backwater Valves (Andy Binns, U of Guelph & ICLR, 2016) Showcase homes St.Thomas (ICLR, 2016)

21 Civil Infrastructure The services provided by civil infrastructure works touch all of us in many ways Services Shelter Safety and security Aesthetics Heat, Light and Power Mobility for people, goods and services Health and recreation Wealth creation Categories Homes & Buildings Transportation networks Energy networks Water, Waste, & Storm water networks Industrial structures Communications networks Landfills and waste depots 21

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23 Climate Resilience Operational capacity Climate event Unprepared community Operational capacity of individuals, business, public services, etc. Community heavily impacted Slow and costly recovery Post-event reduced operational capacity and prosperity Time Adapted from Insurance Bureau of Australia

24 Climate Resilience Operational capacity Climate event Resilient and adapted community Impact on community not as severe Faster and more cost-efficient recovery Restored operational capacity Time Adapted from Insurance Bureau of Australia

25 Capacity Load How do Small Changes Lead to Catastrophic Failure? Failure Design Capacity Safety Factor Impact of age on structure Impact of unforeseen weathering Design Load Change of use over time e.g. population growth Severe climate event 25 of 32

26 Small Increases Lead to Escalating Infrastructure Damage

27 Critical Ice Storm Thresholds Failures under Extreme Ice Storms - freezing rain (mm) Communication towers mm >40 Transmission line failures Distribution line failures ice loads Distribution Line Outages tree breakage Slippery roads <10

28 Why Define Infrastructure Risks? Minimize service disruptions Protect people, property and the environment Optimize service Manage lifecycle Manage operations Avoid surprises Reduce/avoid costs First step in risk reduction planning to improve (climate) resilience 28 of 32

29 From an Infrastructure Planning, Design and Operations Perspective Past climate is not a good predictor of the future Current Trend The Past is the Future Un-quantified Risk 29 of 32

30 Consequence Risk Assessment Matrix Probability of Occurrence 30 of 24

31 Probability of Occurrence The probability of extreme changes in climate parameters INCREASES INCREASE MEAN IN and MEAN VARIANCE Previous Current Climate Less Cold Cold Weather New Climate New Climate More More Hot Weather Hot Weather More Record Hot Hot Weather Weather COLD AVERAGE HOT Increasing Variability 31

32 PIEVC Engineering Protocol: a risk screening tool Five step evaluation process A tool derived from standard risk management methodologies Intended for use by qualified engineering professionals Requires contributions from those with pertinent local knowledge and experience Focused on the principles of vulnerability and resiliency 32 of 32

33 5 Steps plus an Optional TBL Module 33 of 32

34 45 Projects and Counting Water resources systems Storm & waste water systems Roads & bridges Buildings Transportation infrastructure Energy Infrastructure

35 Projects Underway and Recently Completed Metrolinx Transit System Assessment of Six Assets Pearson Airport Assessment of Terminal Building Performance Nanimo Health Care Facility Assessment City of Montreal Stormwater and Wastewater System Assessment City of Vancouver Potable Water Supply Long-Term Plan Three Infrastructure assets in NL (road, building and bridge)

36 Lessons Learned from Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessments Several common issues: Intensity short duration precipitation is almost always a concern Infrastructure systems are almost always vulnerable to interruptions in power supply Severe weather events can disrupt power supply and have significant impact on the serviceability of your infrastructure Combinations of events can have more impact than discrete events Rain on snow High snowfall followed by rapid thaw Highway 404 in Toronto, Ontario July 27, 2014 Image: Global News

37 Lessons Learned from Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessments Meteorological data used in design can often be very dated IDF curves based on 1960s precipitation data Regional climate expertise is always better Climate specialists from distant locations may not be conversant with local weather phenomena Multidisciplinary teams are very important. Teams should comprise: Fundamental understanding of risk and risk assessment processes Directly relevant engineering knowledge of the infrastructure Climatic and meteorological expertise relevant to the region Hands-on operation experience with the infrastructure Hands-on management knowledge with infrastructure Local knowledge and history Image: CBC

38 Lessons Learned from Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessments Climate change projections should be based on ensembles of model outputs There is always a temptation to use only one set of data Understanding your baseline climate is critical How infrastructure has responded to historical weather events informs judgment on how it will likely respond to future, more extreme, events It is important to monitor and maintain Good records of weather events The impact they had on your infrastructure How you responded

39 The PIEVC Protocol can Support the definition of performance measures over the life-cycle of the infrastructure Consider potential climate impacts on the infrastructure and the service Evaluate critical elements and interdependencies Provide insight on necessary operational requirements and policy provisions to maintain the service at the desired level Help develop adaptive designs to reduce frontending capital for over-designed structures

40 it can also Provide a methodology to meet due diligence in terms of documenting design considerations related to future climate risks Allows a better understanding of the lifecycle needs and costs to maintain the value of the infrastructure

41 and furthermore Building infrastructure today without considering future climate impacts is incorporating vulnerabilities that will later cause service disruptions and failures thus increasing costs to government, the private sector and users.

42 Functionality Adaptive measures that also recover functionality Extreme Event $ $$ $$$ Repairs / Rehabilitation to restore functionality after the event With adaptive measures that do not recover functionality Deterioration curve under no-event service life Time Service Life of Infrastructure Adapted from McAllister, T.P. (2013) Developing Guidelines and Standards for Disaster Resilience of the Built Environment: A Research Needs Assessment, NIST TN 1795, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD,

43 For more information: ext 240 engineerscanada.ca 43 of X