By Dr. Osamu IKKI. June Resources Total System Co., Ltd. Tel Fax

Transcription

1 By Dr. Osamu IKKI June 1999 Resources Total System Co., Ltd. Tel Fax

2 Contents 1. The Course of Photovoltaic Power System Promotion 2. Production of Solar Cell (Based on shipment) (1) Production by Application (2) Production by Solar Cell Material, FY1993 to FY Price (1) Solar Cell Price (2) 3kW Residential PV System Price (in case of standard installation) (3) PV System Installation Price for Public Facilities (NEDO s Field Test) 4. PV Power Generation Cost 5. Value of Solar Cell Production in Japan 6. Progress of of Solar Cell by Material in Japan (1) Solar Cell Level (a) Single crystal Silicon (b) Multicrystalline Silicon (c) Amorphous Silicon (d) Multicrystalline Silicon Thin Film (e) Single crystal Silicon Thin Film ( f ) III-V Compound (g) CdTe (h) CIS (2) Module Level (3) Progress of of Solar Cell at NEDO s projects 7. Solar Cell Manufacturers and Their Recent Technological Development 8. Target for Technological Development of Solar Cells under NEDO Projects

3 1. The Course of Photovoltaic Power System Promotion 1990 (1) Procedure to installation of PV Systems less than 500kW was simplified by the amendment of the ity Utility Industry Law (1) power companies announced PV introduction project aiming at installing 2,400kW of PV system by FY 1995 (Results: 2,659kW) (1) Buy-back system, which electric power companies should buy back the surplus power by PV from their customers at the selling price, has been implemented. (2) PV Field Test Project for Public Facilities by NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) started (1) Guideline of the technical requirements for PV grid-connection with reverse flow was prepared. (2) The New sunshine Project was initiated by MITI (the Ministry of International Trade and Industry) (1) Residential PV System Monitor Program started. PV Systems are subsidized. (2) Basic Guidelines for New Energy Introduction came to a decision at the Cabinet meeting. The target Capacity for PV introduction was set 400MW by 2000 and 4,600MW by (1) Government agencies started to study the introduction and application of PV systems. (2) Local government initiated in drawing up their PV introduction plan under the Vision for Regional New Energy (1) NTT (Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp.) started PV System Introduction Plan to their own facilities. (2) A society for the study of PV was organized by industrial groups of more than 130 companies and started the study on PV system introduction. (3) Advisory Committee for Energy made the additional suggestion to Energy Policy for self-sustaining PV market. (4) In MITI s Economic structure Plan Program for Reform and Creation of Economic Structure, the target of new industry creation in the field of new energy was focused on fostering PV industry.

4 1997 (1) Law on Special Measures for Promotion of New Energy Utilization (the Law for New Energy Promotion Introduction) was enacted. (2) Residential PV System Dissemination Program (former Residential PV System Monitor Program) started to deploy residential PV system on a large scale. (3) Subsidy system for industrialists who plan to introduce new energy was established. (4) Regional new energy introduction projects started (1) Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook was revised. The target capacity for PV introduction by 2010 was revised from 4,600MW to 5,000MW. (2) Basic Guideline for Promotion on Measures against Global Warming was drawn up. (3) Provision Project for Environmentally Friendly Energy Supply was implemented. (4) PV System Field Test Program for Industrial Use started. (5) Law on Promotion on Measures against Global Warming was enacted. (6) Policy on The Law Concerning The Promotion of Development and Introduction of Oil Alternative Energy was revised. Photovoltaics was placed one of Oil alternative energies.

5 2. Production of Solar Cell (Based on shipment) (1) Production by Application (unit: kw) Consumer Use Power Use Application FY1994 FY1995 FY1996 FY Calculator 4,831 4,949 4,599 4,016 Watch Charger Toy & Teaching Material Others Subtotal 6,012 5,928 5,812 5,458 Power 6,270 11,836 16,627 35,990 Telecommunication Lighting & Sign Others 2, Subtotal 9,508 13,144 18,758 36,852 unknown unknown Laboratory Use unknown Total 15,680 19,505 24,703 42,518 53,130 Sources: (1) FY1994~FY1997; Optoelectronic Industry and Technology Development Association (2) 1998 (calendar year); Japan Photovolataic Energy Association 60,000 50,000 Totali1998j 53,130kW Production (kw) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 FY1994 FY1995 FY1996 FY Total for power use 36,852kW ( Power) 35,990kW Total Total for power use ( Power) Total for commercial use 5,458kW (Calculator) 4,016kW (Telecommunication) 558kW Total for laboratory use 208kW Production by Application

6 (2) Production by Solar Cell Material, FY1993 to FY1997 (unit: kw) Material FY1993 FY1994 FY1995 FY Single crystal Silicon 2,129 3,867 6,813 7,784 Multicrystalline Silicon 6,013 5,996 6,837 9,921 Amorphous Silicon 5,653 4,956 4,954 5,988 unknown CdTe ,010 GaAs Total 14,669 15,680 19,505 24,703 42,518 Sources: Optoelectronic Industry and Technology Development Association 3. Price (1) Solar Cell Price Case Price in Yen/W (USD/W) Large Order 1,000~ 1,500 (8.3~12.5) 800~ 1,200 (6.7~10) 800~ 1,200 (6.7~10) 700~ 900 (5.8~7.5) 600~ 800 (5~6.7) 600~ 750 (5~6.2) 580~ 700 (4.8~5.8) 480~ 650 (4~5.4) Retail 2,000~ 3,000 (16.7~25) 2,000~ 2,500 (16.7~20.8) 2,000~ 2,500 (16.7~20.8) 1,500~ 2,000 (12.5~16.7) 800~ 1,200 (6.7~10) 800~ 1,000 (6.7~8.3) 800~ 1,000 (6.7~8.3) 800~ 900 (6.7~7.5) Note: 1 USD=120 Yen

7 (2) 3kW Residential PV System Price (in case of standard installation) Unit: million Yen (USD) Item Module Inverter Other Devices Installation Cost (Standard) Total 3.60 (30,000) 4.00 (33,300) 2.00 (16,700) 1.40 (11,700) (91,700) 2.70 (22,500) 1.80 (15,000) 0.70 (5,800) 0.80 (6,700) 6.00 (50,000) 2.40 (20,000) 0.90 (7,500) 0.50 (4,200) 0.50 (4,200) 4.30 (35,800) 2.10 (17,500) 0.70 (5,800) 0.30 (2,500) 0.40 (3,300) 3.50 (29,200) 1.95 (16,250) 0.50 (4,200) 0.25 (2,100) 0.40 (3,300) 3.10 (25,800) 1.95 (16,250) 0.45 (3,750) 0.25 (2,100) 0.40 (3,300) 3.05 (25,400) Note: (1) 1 USD=120 Yen (2) PV system prices are often adopted open price system, so the price is shown at the central price based on standard installation cost kW Residential PV System Price (milion Yen) Installation Cost (Standard) Other Devices Inverter Module Year 3kW Residential PV System Price (in case of standard installation)

8 (3) PV System Installation Price for Public Facilities (NEDO s Field Test) Unit: million Yen/kW (USD/kW) Scale of Power Generation FY1992 FY1993 FY1994 FY1995 FY1996 FY kW 20kW 30kW Price Range Average Price Price Range Average Price Price Range Average Price Note: (1) 1 USD=120 Yen Source: NEDO 4.1~6.4 (34,200~53,300) 4.5 (37,500) 3.4~4.9 (28,300~40,800) 4.6 (38,300) 3.5~3.7 (29,200~30,800) 3.6 (30,000) 3.8~4.5 (31,700~37,500) 4.2 (35,000) 3.1~4.6 (25,800~38,300) 3.8 (31,700) 3.4~3.6 (28,300~30,000) 3.5 (29,200) 3.1~3.9 (25,800~32,500) 3.5 (29,200) 3.0~3.4 (25,000~28,300) 3.2 (26,700) 2.8~3.2 (23,300~26,700) 3.1 (25,800) 1.6~3.4 (13,300~28,300) 2.8 (23,300) 1.8~2.9 (15,000~24,200) 2.4 (20,000) 1.9~2.6 (15,800~21,700) 2.3 (19,200) 1.6~2.0 (13,300~16,700) 1.8 (15,000) 1.5~1.8 (12,500~15,000) 1.7 (14,200) 1.6 (13,300) 1.6 (13,300) 1.2~1.8 (10,000~15,000) 1.5 (12,500) 1.2~1.7 (10,000~14,200) 1.4 (11,700) 1.5 (12,500) 1.5 (12,500) PV System Installation Average price (million Yen/kW) MW 20 MW 30 MW Fiscal year PV System Installation Price for Public Facilities (4) Typical Installation of PV System by Scale of Power Generation 10KW System 20kW System 30kW System Child park, Shinkansen platform, Environment center, People s hotel, Gymnasium, Community center, Prefectural office, Agricultural technology center, University, Museum, Police office, Health center, Environmental radiation observation center, Health facilities for the aged, Primary school, Heated swimming pool, etc. Laboratory, Athletic center, Cooperative purchasing center, Provision center of school lunch, Nursery school, Educational center, Kindergarden, Primary school, Factory, Hospital, Newspaper publishing Company, Co-op building, Environmental center, Filtration plant, Disaster prevention center, Credit association, Gas station, etc. Health center, Large park, Primary school, Junior high school, Technical high school, University, Home for the aged, Industrial technology laboratory, Maternity hospital, Product inspection center, Hospital, Government office building, etc.

9 4. PV Power Generation Cost Unit: Yen/kWh (USD/kWh) Application Residential PV System 30kW PV System for Public Facilities 185~235 (1.54~1.96) 272~325 (2.27~2.71) 125~140 (1.04~1.17) 234~255 (1.95~2.12) 100~115 (0.83~0.96) 131~194 (1.09~1.62) 70~90 (0.58~0.75) 115~135 (0.96~1.12) 70~80 (0.58~0.67) 110~130 (0.92~1.08) Note: (1) 1 USD=120 Yen (2) 1993~1996 : Advisory Committee for Energy, The Subcommittee of Basic Policy Directions (1996) (3) 1997 : estimation Source: (1) Advisory Committee for Energy, The Subcommittee of Basic Policy Directions (1996) (2) NEDO (30kW PV System for Public Facilities) 5. Value of Solar Cell Production in Japan Amount of Production Fiscal Year billion Yen million USD Production Average Unit Price (kw) Yen/W USD/W ,826 1, ,918 1, ,520 1, , , , , , (est.) , , , , , , , (est.) (est.) Note: 1 USD=120 Yen Source: Optoelectronic Industry and Technology Development Association

10 Fiscal Pr od uct ion (bil lio n Ye Fiscal Year

11 6. Progress of of Solar Cell by Material in Japan (1) Solar Cell Level (a) Single crystal Silicon Year. month manufacturer Area* Testing** 93.9 Kyocera (t) JMI 94.4 Sanyo (ap) JQA 95.4 Sharp (t) JQA 96.3 Hitachi (ap) JQA 96.9 Hitachi (ap) JQA 96.9 Hitachi (ap) JQA Sharp (da) JQA 97.3 Sharp (da) JQA * (ap) : aperture area, (t) : total area, (da) : designated illumination area ** JMI : Japan Machinery & Metals Inspection Institute, JQA : Japan Quality Assurance Organization (b) Multicrystalline Silicon Year. month manufacturer Area* Testing** 93.3 Sharp (t) JQA Kyocera (t) JQA * (t) : total area ** JMI : Japan Machinery & Metals Inspection Institute, JQA : Japan Quality Assurance Organization (c) Amorphous Silicon Year. month manufacturer Sanyo USSC/ Canon Sanyo Area* Testing** (da) JQA (ap) NREL (ap) JMI Sharp (da) JMI 94.4 Sanyo (da) Sanyo 94.5 Sanyo (da) JQA * (ap) : aperture area, (da) : designated illumination area ** JQA : Japan Quality Assurance Organization, NREL : National Renewable Energy Laboratory (USA), JMI : Japan Machinery & Metals Inspection Institute

12 (d) Multicrystalline Silicon Thin Film Year. month 93.3 manufacturer Mitsubishi Area* Testing** (t) JQA 97.2 Kaneka (da) JQA 97.2 Kaneka (da) JQA 97.2 Mitsubishi (ap) JQA Kaneka (ap) JQA 98.2 Kaneka (da) JQA 98 Kaneka (ap) Kaneka * (ap) : aperture area, (t) : total area, (da) : designated illumination area ** JQA : Japan Quality Assurance Organization (e) Single crystal Silicon Thin Film Year. month manufacturer Area* Testing** 98.6 Sony (t) Sony * (t) : total area (f) III-V Compound Year. month manufacturer Material Japan Energy Sumitomo Japan Energy/ Sumitomo GaInP/ GaAs GaAs/ GaInAs GaInP/ GaAs/ GaInAs * (t) : total area ** JQA : Japan Quality Assurance Organization Area* Testing** (t) JQA (t) JQA (t) JQA (g) CdTe Year. month manufacturer Matsushita Battery Area* Testing** (ap) JQA 97.3 Matsushita Battery (ap) JQA * (ap) : aperture area ** JQA : Japan Quality Assurance Organization

13 (h) CIS Year. month manufacturer Material* Matsushita Matsushita Tokyo Institute of Technology Showa Shell Sekiyu Showa Shell Sekiyu Showa Shell Sekiyu Showa Shell Sekiyu Matsushita Matsushita Showa Shell Sekiyu CIGS on glass ZnO/ ZnIn/Se /CIGS Area** Testing*** (ap) JQA CIGS (160mA) 68.1 JQA CIGS (ap) JQA CIGS (198mA) 65.4 JQA CIGS on glass CIGS on glass CIGS on glass CIGS on glass * CIGS : CuInGaSe 2 ** (ap) : aperture area *** JQA : Japan Quality Assurance Organization (ap) JQA (ap) JQA (ap) JQA (ap) JQA

14 (2) Module Level Material* Year. month manufacturer Single crystal Silicon a-si a-si/a-si a-si/ a-sige CdS/ CdTe 94.2 Honda/ Sun Power Area** Testing*** (ap) SNL 95.9 Kaneka ,917 (ap) JQA 96.9 Kaneka ,951 (ap) JQA 92.4 Fuji , JMI 92.5 Fuji ,203 (ap) NREL Sanyo Sanyo Matsushita Matsushita * a-si : amorphous silicon/hydrogen alloy ** (ap) : aperture area *** SNL : Sandia National Laboratories (USA), JQA : Japan Quality Assurance Organization, JMI : Japan Machinery & Metals Inspection Institute, NREL : National Renewable Energy Laboratory (USA) ,200 (ap) JQA 9.5 1,200 (ap) JQA (ap) JQA ,376 (ap) JQA

15 (3) Progress of of Solar Cell at NEDO s projects Year mc-si 100cm mc-si 225cm 2 a-si 100cm 2, initial a-si 1,200cm 2, initial a-si 1cm 2, stable a-si 1,200cm 2, stable CdTe film 1cm 2 CdTe film 1,200cm Note: mc-si : multicrystalline silicon, a-si : amorphous silicon, sc-si : Single crystal silicon CIS mc-si 100c u mc-si 225c u a-si 100c u, initial a-si 1,200c u, initial a-si 1c u, stable a-si 1,200c u, stable CdTe film 1c u Year CdTe film 1,200c u CIS Progress of of Solar Cell at NEDO s projects

16 7. Solar Cell Manufactures and Their Recent Technological Development Manufacturer Products Typical Technological Development Kyocera Sharp Sanyo Kaneka MSK - mc-si cell & module - sc-si cell & module - mc-si cell & module - a-si cell & module - sc-si module - Si cell & module - a-si/sc-si cell & module - a-si cell & module - mc-si module - Developed semi-grazing type mc-si module - Commercialized roof-integrated mc-si module for residential use - Developed standard type 10kW PV system for industrial use - Developed disaster protection type PV system for park use - Commercialized facade integrated PV system for building use - Commercialized reflected concentration type sc-si module - Developed thin-film PV module for residential use - Developed building material integrated PV system for industrial use - Commercialized a-si/sc-si hybrid module (HIT) - Commercialized 160W sc-si module - Developed building material integrated PV system for industrial use - Developed bifacial PV module - Developed 965 x 910 large-area PV module - Developed building material integrated PV module - Developed roof-integrated PV system for residential use Showa Shell Sekiyu - sc-si module - Commercialized triangular module Daido Hoxan - sc-si cell & module - Commercialized color module (red, blue, green, yellow etc.) Mitsubishi electric - mc-si cell & module - Developed film type PV module for residential use Matsushita Battery - CdTe cell & module - Developed thin film CdTe PV module Note: mc-si : multicrystalline silicon, a-si : amorphous silicon, sc-si : Single crystal silicon

17 8. Target for Technological Development of Solar Cells under NEDO Projects Solar cell Technological development Targets for FY 2000 Thin film solar cell Super high efficiency solar cell Source: NEDO Low-cost production of large-area modules New materials and substrates Super high efficiency crystalline compound solar cells (1) Manufacturing technologies for new amorphous solar cell modules (2) Manufacturing technologies for high reliability CdTe solar cell modules - Module cost: 140/W (based on annual production at 100 MW) - Stable conversion efficiency: 10 % - Size: 90 cm x 90 cm (glass substrate) 40 cm x 80 cm (flexible type) - Module cost: 140/W (based on annual production at 100 MW) - efficiency: 13 % - Size: 60 cm x 90 cm (3) Manufacturing technologies for next generation thin film solar cell modules (i) CIS solar cell module - Module cost: 140/W (based on annual production at 100 MW) - efficiency: 13 % - Size: 30 cm x 30 cm (ii) Thin film polycrystalline solar cell modules - Module cost: 140/W (based on annual production at 100 MW) - efficiency: 15 % - Size: 30 cm x 30 cm (iii) New structure application type thin film solar cells a) Amorphous / thin film polycrystalline silicon hybrid solar cell - efficiency: 14 % - Size: 5 cm x 5 cm b) Thin film silicon hybrid solar cell - efficiency: 16 % - Size: 10 cm x 10 cm c) Concentrated type micro solar cell - efficiency: 15 % - Size: Approximately 2 mm in circumscribed circle diameter d) New type single crystalline silicon solar cell (1) High quality amorphous substrate manufacturing technologies (2) High quality silicon substrate manufacturing technologies (1) Manufacturing technologies for large area solar cells - efficiency: 16 % - Size: 10 cm x 10 cm - Film growth rate: 20 Å/sec. - Density of defects after stabilized: Approx. 1 in 2,000,000 Si. - Film growth rate: 10 Å/sec. - Defect density: Approx. 1 in 5,000,000 Si. - efficiency: 30 % (Ge substrate) 25 % (Si substrate) - Size: 5 cm x 5 cm - The conversion efficiency given above are for non-mechanical stack structure type. Higher efficiency are targeted for mechanical stack structure type.