Climatic Change: the Central Texas Experience

Transcription

1 Water Supply Utilities and Climatic Change: the Central Texas Experience Laura Stroup Kevin Romig Department of Geography, Texas State University

2 A Geography Note: Alaska is 2.3 times the size of Texas Image sources: 9d9433ea7fb7b5acb86920a8

3 Outline Geographic overview of area Literature and Research Questions Texas water policy and planning Growth and water consumption Climate change effects on region Preliminary research findings and conclusions Colorado River in Austin

4 Study Area Texas Commission on Environmental Quality regions 11 and 13 Austin San Antonio Corridor

5 Study Area Texas Water Development Board regions K, L, J, F, and G Austin San Antonio Corridor covers part

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8 Study Area Texas Hill Country Roughly 35 inches of annual precipitation Scrubby vegetation Karst groundwater aquifer

9 Study Area Mainly Texas Hill Country Housing and population growth Low density residential Exurban growth without urban infrastructure

10 Relevant Literature Uncertain future concerning the dual challenges of climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle and rapidly yg growing g human populations Vorosmarty et. al. (2000) Milly et al. (2008) Standish-Lee et al. (2006) Utility cost considerations Stakhiv (1998)

11 Research Questions 1. Identify vulnerable water resource utilities in the Central Texas Region. Vulnerability is based on having the highest relative percentage of projected water supply needs increase from Canyon Lake on Guadalupe River

12 Research Questions 2. Through qualitative investigation, determine the current extent of regional water utility yp planning for both growth and climate variability and change.

13 Texas Water Policy Currently, Texas is the only state in the country to still maintain Rule of Capture with regard to groundwater regulation. Outdated considering growth Blanco River near Kyle

14 Texas Water Policy Further, surface water rights and groundwater are managed separately. Comal River, New Braunfels Image source:

15 Texas Water Planning Purview of the Texas Water Development Board According to the Texas Water Development Board, demand for water will increase 27 % by If demand is not met, it could cost businesses and workers in the state approximately $9.1 billion per year by 2010 and $98.4 billion per year by 2060 (Combs 2009). Georgetown, Texas

16 Texas Water Planning

17 Texas Water Planning Upon closer inspection at the utility level Utility Name Year 2000 Actual Projected Increase %Growth Water Use Water Use (acre feet) (acre feet) COUNTY LINE WSC 252 2,730 1,083% DRIPPING 321 3,415 1,064% SPRINGS BUDA 385 4, % ROUND ROCK 13,522 49, % AUSTIN 126, , % SAN ANTONIO 188, ,248 69%

18 Population Growth Counties in this region had some of the nation s highest population growth rates. Williamson 27.2% 2% Hays 22.3% Bastrop 18.8% 8% Burnet 18.0% Comal 17.7% 7% Source, Texas Almanac ( ) 07) Sprawl near Cibolo

19 Water Consumption Growth in Water Consumption Projected %G Growth Name County 1083% COUNTY LINE HAYS 1064% DRIPPING SPRINGS HAYS 975% BUDA HAYS 889% BULVERDE CITY COMAL 866% CHISHOLM TRAIL SUD WILLIAMSON 792% CANYON LAKE COMAL 690% FERN BLUFF MUD WILLIAMSON 671% COUNTY-OTHER BASTROP 641% KYLE HAYS Data Source: TWDB

20 Population Growth Most of this growth happening in drier parts of the Hill Country. Native landcover Open space

21 Global Climate Change Projections indicate a likelihood of a 3-10 F increase in average temperature by 2099 for the region. Increase in frequency and magnitude of drought risk. Dry areas, drier; wet areas, wetter

22 Global Climate Change This means more variability in both surface and groundwater supply.

23 Consumption and Growth A silver lining to the economic downturn: Growth and consumption estimates based on unsustainable previous rates. Time for Texas to re-assess water policy Waller Creek, Austin

24 Findings Research teams and partnerships with utility providers Rural counties, like Lee County groundwater jackpot? in near future Cultural concerns in water Importance of boundaries for allocation/management -Watersheds? Surface and ground-water

25 State Guidance Management methods Cooperation among utilities Possible increase in state funding for utilities on its way? Source: TWDB

26 Conclusions Central Texas facing serious water shortages within the next fifty years (very likely ten). State s management focus has been population growth, nearly ignoring climate change. New strategies, methods, and modeling essential ili in maintaining ii reliable libl supply. Onward to Question 2!

27 Thank You To: The Department of Geography Texas State Texas State Research he Enhancement Program for preliminary funding. Contact: Laura Stroup Kevin Romig