Energy. Association. Networks. Association. Insert presentation title here. The Voice of the Networks. Open Networks Project

Transcription

1 The Voice of the Networks Energy Networks Energy Association Networks Association Open Networks Project Insert presentation title here WS1 (2018) Whole System Future Energy Scenarios 29 October 2018 Name Position Date

2 Webinar: Whole System FES Thank you for joining the Open Networks: Whole System FES (WS1 P5) webinar. This webinar will commence at 1:33PM. If you are unable to play the audio through your device, you can also dial in by calling Please ensure that your microphone is switched to mute to avoid background noise and your camera in not in use. You may ask questions via the chat function throughout the webinar. We will address as many of these as possible at the end of the presentation. Please note that this webinar will be recorded and that the audio, chat messages (anonymised) and slides will be made available on our website. Should you want further information about the Open Networks project, please don t hesitate to get in touch with us at opennetworls@energynetworks.org. 2 The Voice of the Networks

3 Agenda Webinar Outline Whole System FES Product & Team introduction Product programme outline Why Whole System FES? DNO forecasting questionnaire National Grid 2018 FES Methodology Review Common building blocks Whole System FES framework options Preferred option and next steps Panel session Q & A 3 The Voice of the Networks

4 Whole System FES Product & Team Introduction The Whole System FES Product is an ENA Open Networks Product (Product 5) under Workstream 1 (T-D Processes). The product is developing a Whole System FES framework which is intended to facilitate the production of whole system future energy scenarios. During 2018, the Product team is focusing on electricity transmission and distribution, with future work expected to broaden the scope to include other sectors. To-date, we have engaged with the Open Networks Project Workstream 1 and the ENA Advisory Group. Today we are looking for stakeholder input in order to inform our approach and recommendations. The product team is made up of representatives from GB network companies and the ESO Company Bless Kuri SSEN Product Lead Mary Black NPg Webinar Panellist Alex Haffner NGESO Webinar Panellist Ian Povey ENWL Webinar Panellist Keith Evans ENWL Christopher Kungu SPEN Colin Nicholl UKPN Ben Godfrey WPD Wayne Mullins NGET 4 The Voice of the Networks

5 Whole System FES Outline Product 5: Development of a Whole System Future Energy Scenario Framework P5.1 Review current forecasting approaches P5.2 Develop common forecasting approach P5.3 Establish process for T&D FES coordination Jan Jun 2018 Apr Sep 2018 Sep Dec 2018 Forecasting questionnaire to all DNOs Analysis of questionnaire responses and identification of similarities and differences in approaches High level consideration of SO FES methodology Key forecasting parameters Whole System FES framework options Forecasting approach Coordination across DNOs Review current FES and DNO forecasting processes and timelines Develop process options for coordinated T and D FES development Recommendation and buy-in from DNOs, TOs & SO 5 The Voice of the Networks

6 Why Whole System FES? The development of the Whole System FES framework is intended to facilitate the production of whole system future energy scenarios, the building blocks of which are consistent and aligned across network operators in order to support whole system industry processes. At this stage we have focused on the Electricity sector in developing the principles for Whole System FES framework, with future work looking to broaden the scope to include other sectors. The Whole System FES are intended to specifically support the strategic whole system planning and do not restrict the network companies from creating their own regional scenarios to support their network development planning activities. The level of potential change at D-level (e.g. generation, storage, EV s, local energy schemes) means that we need greater focus on coherent scenarios between T & D and across D networks. The Whole System FES will: Provide a consistent view of possible energy futures across network ownership boundaries Facilitate whole system thinking within the industry Allow whole system requirements to be identified Facilitate whole system outcomes in the provision and implementation of solutions to address system requirements Facilitate 3 rd party participation in system development and operation Provide a platform for coordinated stakeholder engagement 6 The Voice of the Networks

7 Forecasting questionnaire summary Forecasting activities beyond industry code requirements (Week 24), active and reactive power Energy resources considered in the forecasts Top/down vs bottom/up approach and approach to diversity or aggregation What the forecast data is used for and time horizons covered by system development plans and publications Consideration and drivers for use of multiple scenarios Source of forecasting information and methods used to obtain the information Forecast parameters and forecasting horizon Key challenges in producing forecasts 7 The Voice of the Networks

8 Current forecasting approaches Some DNOs are undertaking enhanced forecasting activities to address specific requirements in their areas. There are different forecasting approaches in use across the DNO community Ranging from single to multiple scenario approaches Forecasting from 5 years ahead to 25 years Collaboration on forecasting activities generally limited to areas where there are common network issues For DNOs attempting to align their forecasts with National Grid s FES there is the challenge of misaligned scenario development timelines Forecasts used to inform load related reinforcement plans and investment decisions and RIIO 2 Scenario timescales longer than 5 years being considered by all. Development of DSO transition decision support (extent and feasibility of flexibility services and operational technology requirements) Key challenge faced by all is the high level of uncertainty in the volume, rate of penetration and operational regimes/behaviour of DER 8 The Voice of the Networks

9 Whole System FES workshop, May 2018 Whole System FES Workshop held on 21 May, attended by Representatives from all DNOs, TOs and the SO Two consultancies: Element Energy Regen To review Future Energy Scenario development good practice and carry out Gap Analysis Forecasting methodologies Key forecasting parameters Process for coordination across DNOs Requirements for coordination with the national FES process 9 The Voice of the Networks

10 Workshop takeaways The SO s FES methodology is good starting point Greater collaboration needed between the SO and network companies Need for systematic DNO/SO engagement rather than ad-hoc basis The Whole System FES framework should not be restrictive. Network companies should retain the flexibility to model other local scenarios to better represent specific possible future scenarios that are better modelled in detail at local level The development of Whole System FES should be prioritised on a needs basis Priority to be given to local areas where there are DER activities driving significant requirements for solutions in order to maximise return on effort High granularity of DER data at distribution level means that Whole System FES development is not an insignificant task requires to be appropriately resourced 10 The Voice of the Networks

11 FES 2018 Methodology Review High level axes capture the key Whole System parameters embodied in the scenarios Good for stakeholder engagement May be rigid when carrying out localised assessments of system needs, uncertainty, etc. The Whole System FES Team agreed the concept of scenario building blocks, based on a set of common assumptions and levers Collaboration between Network companies and SO required in the development of the building blocks A mapping based on driver levels is applied to the set of building blocks to: Develop the Whole System FES or Any other scenarios required by any of the parties This approach allows parties to frame different axes for their own local scenarios. 11 The Voice of the Networks

12 Levers Whole System FES Building Blocks Example Building blocks Technological Blocks Economic Blocks Block 1 Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Block 2 Marine Generation Installed Capacity Block N UK GDP Growth Rate Block N+1 End Consumer Electricity Price High No incentives required No incentives required Medium Low reliant on stakeholder feedback Consented schemes only reliant on market intelligence and stakeholder feedback Consented schemes only Building blocks based on a common set of assumptions and levers Industry collaboration required in building a common set of blocks 12 The Voice of the Networks

13 Scenario building Inputs & Outputs The inputs are the driver levels (High, Medium, Low) associated with the levers Assumption name (Block) Description Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution Solar generation - large Level of installed capacity of solar - large Medium (Push to decarbonise using small scale generation.) High (Push to decarbonise but prefer larger solar installations.) Low Low (Slower pace of decarbonisation.) (Slower pace of decarbonisation.) Solar generation - small Level of installed capacity of solar - small scale High Push to decarbonise using small scale generation. Medium High levels of renewable generation exist in a Low decarbonised scenario but this centralised scenario favours large scale generation. Slower pace of decarbonisation and focus on larger ground mount solar. Medium Slow pace of decarbonisation but focus on small solar over ground mount in this decentralised scenario. The building blocks are formed from inputs The outputs from the model are quantities 13 The Voice of the Networks

14 Scenarios Scenario building Example Scenario Driver Levels Technological Blocks Economic Blocks Block 1 Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Block 2 Marine Generation Installed Capacity Block N UK GDP Growth Rate Block N+1 End Consumer Electricity Price National Two Degrees H M L H M L H M L H M L National Slow Progression H M L H M L H M L H M L National Community Renewables H M L H M L H M L H M L National Consumer Evolution H M L H M L H M L H M L Local/Regional A H M L H N M/ A L H M L H M L Local/Regional B H M L H N M/ A L H M L H M L Local/Regional C H M L H N M/ A L H M L H M L Local/Regional D H M L H M L H M L H M L Regional/Local Other H M L H N M/ A L H M L H M L 14 The Voice of the Networks

15 The basis of Whole System FES The driver level inputs into the building blocks are processed to produce unconstrained outputs, e.g. Distributed solar installed capacity, Installed marine generation, number of EVs, etc. PV is a good example of where solar potential regionally constrains the output so a high scenario will yield higher PV in, say in Cornwall than in Yorkshire, but it is still a high scenario for both. Sense check required on whether the outputs from the H/M/L drivers look reasonable both nationally and regionally. It is agreement on the inputs which forms the basis for a common FES for planning. The national and the local/regional scenarios together are necessary for managing uncertainty the local/regional scenarios provide a fuller picture of the range of local future scenarios. The collection of the national FES and the local/regional scenarios form the Whole System FES The common building block approach allows open interpretation of the differences between the national and local/regional scenarios by explaining where the H/M/L comes from for a particular building block, where it is an outlier. 15 The Voice of the Networks

16 Whole System FES Framework options Option Description Comments 1 Common GB FES All DNOs and TOs work with SO to produce scenarios and associated assumptions and levers. These are also the Distribution FES aligned across Transmission and Distribution Based on common building blocks and rules across all DNOs, TOs and SO Impractical to implement and it also restricts regional variation. Would need input from Gas 2 Hybrid FES GB FES plus additional Distribution FES DNOs, TOs and SO collaborate on the GB FES at GSPs Network companies own best view scenarios expressed in the common framework/ building blocks of the GB FES to allow stakeholders to understand and compare scenarios 3 Separate FES DNO Led 4 Separate FES SO Led DNO scenarios produced on independently based on bottom up assessment of local DER Assumptions & Results provided to NGET to incorporate into GB FES as appropriate No common building SO produce scenarios to GSP level based on Top Down assessment of GB network. Assumptions & Results provided to DNOs to incorporate into Distribution FES as appropriate No common building blocks Lacks TSO/DSO collaboration when we need to assure ourselves and our stakeholders that we are jointly planning for the big changes we expect to our networks in the future 16 The Voice of the Networks

17 Preferred Whole System FES framework Hybrid option 2 is the preferred option Network companies able to use a range of detailed models appropriate to the distribution network Comparability of network companies own scenarios, relativity analysis, and easily communicable SO/DNO interface at GSP working together to improve the GB FES breakdown at GSP level Spatial analysis information on domestic demand (heat pumps, EVs, etc ) Feasibility assessments on GB scenario expectations e.g. industrial and commercial demand side response Further development of this option in progress Detail of the FES building blocks Common language Regional differences Interaction with related industry codes and processes Stakeholder engagement Data exchange, data formats and standard reports Transitional arrangements and Whole System FES framework review 17 The Voice of the Networks

18 Next steps Establish process for T&D FES coordination (sub-product 5.3) November Recommendation and buy-in from DNOs, TOs & SO November Whole System FES framework report end of December. 18 The Voice of the Networks

19 Feedback The Whole System FES framework should recognise the different drivers across different network licence areas. Whole System FES should therefore be prioritised on a needs basis Do you agree with this approach? What alternative approaches could be considered? Whole System FES focus on the national picture while maintaining a consistent view across regional areas. The use of common building blocks allows the DNOs and the SO to collaborate effectively at the T/D interface. Network owners develop their own FES, based on the common building blocks, to give a fuller regional picture within their licenced areas. Do you agree with this approach to the development of Whole System FES? What other approaches do you think should be considered? The preferred Whole System FES framework option is option 2 Hybrid FES Do you agree with the preferred option for the Whole System FES framework? What other options do you think should be considered? 19 The Voice of the Networks

20 Questions and Answers Panel Session Observations Views Suggestions Questions Further feedback post-webinar: 20 The Voice of the Networks