Coal is the Cornerstone of Our Energy Future. Frank Clemente Ph.D. Professor of Social Science Penn State University

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Coal is the Cornerstone of Our Energy Future. Frank Clemente Ph.D. Professor of Social Science Penn State University"

Transcription

1 Coal is the Cornerstone of Our Energy Future Frank Clemente Ph.D. Professor of Social Science Penn State University 1

2 Energy is Good People in Societies with Greater Access to Electricity: Survive Childhood Live Longer Drink Cleaner Water Eat Better Can Read % 90% 0 25% 90% 0 25% 90% 0 25% 90% 0 25% 90% Under Five Death Rate /1000 Life Expectancy (years) Access to Improved Sources (%) Under Nourished (%) Literacy Rate (%) 25% 90% average percent of population with access to electricity 2 2

3 A Transmission Line for Much of the World In Africa, women typically carry 20 kilograms of fuel wood an average of 5 kilometers every day it takes 5 hours 3

4 SCALE SETS THE CONTEXT: If Current Electricity Demand Was a 6 Foot Tall Man Global Electricity Consumption

5 Everything, Everywhere, All the Time: Increases needed by 2030 to meet demand Nuclear power 38% Oil production 43% Renewable energy 61% NG production 64% Coal production 74% 5 5

6 Two Different Worlds There is no such thing as clean coal National Resources Defense Council. When asked how China would ever meet the growing demand for electricity, liquid fuel and NG, Du Minghua, Director of the Beijing Research Institute replied: Coal is the solution to all three. 6

7 Out of Poverty: Coal Based Energy has Propelled China Forward China is an example for the developing world IEA, , Note: Poverty measure follows World Bank Definition of $1 per day income Source: IEA, 2007; EIA,

8 INDIA NEEDS ELECTRICITY----DESPERATELY Million Millions of People in India Million 412 Equals Population of USA UK Italy 668 Million 668 Equals Population of USA UK Italy Germany France Japan Equals Population of the Western Hemisphere 0 No Electricity Cook with Wood or Dung No Refrigeration No Electricity Cook with Wood or Dung No Refrigeration 8

9 Coal is India s only Energy Advantage 20.0% 18.0% 17.1% % of Worlds Proved Reserves 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 10.2% 2.0% 0.0% Population (1.15 Billion) 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% Oil NG Uranium Coal India s Share of the World s Energy Reserves 9 9

10 The Future of Electricity is Being Formed at the Global Level Billion Kilowatt Hours 1,090 USA 13,184 Rest of World Increase in Billion Kilowatt Hours

11 And That Future Revolves Around Coal In 2030, more than 3.3 billion people will depend upon coal for more than 50% of their electric power. Other fuel: 59% Other fuel: 56% Coal: 41% Coal: 44% 2005 Source of Electricity 2030 Source: EIA,

12 Carbon Capture and Storage is the Technological Pathway Carbon capture and storage technology hold enormous potential to reduce our GHG emissions as we power our economy with domestically produced and secure energy President Barack Obama prosperity depends upon reliable, affordable access to energy. Coal is likely to be a major and growing source of electricity generation for the foreseeable future. We must make it our goal to advance carbon capture and storage technology to the point where widespread, affordable deployment can begin in 8 to 10 years Steve Chu, Secretary of Energy 12

13 That Was Then The Dramatic Success of Clean Coal Technology 13

14 Why Retrofit with CCS is so Critical 2,600 2,400 2,200 A 112% increase in coal based capacity in less than 25 years 2,108 2,408 Gigawatts 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,897 1,400 1,200 1,135 1, Global Coal Based Generating Capacity in GW Source: IEA,

15 Coal with CCS is Among the Low Cost Alternatives Cents per kwh Coal Gasification with CCS Nuclear Low Case Wind High Case Wind * Apt. et al, A National Renewable Portfolio Standard? Not Practical Carnegie Mellon University,

16 National Academy of Sciences latest assessment of America s energy future, July, 2009 Potential new electricity supply from these sources by 2035 Natural gas generation of electricity could be expanded to meet a substantial portion of U.S. electricity demand if there were no concerns about the behavior of world natural gas markets and prices and about further increasing CO2 emissions and U.S. import dependence. NAS, July

17 Breaking News From National Coal Council Report Issued Last Friday on 21 st Century Low Carbon Coal Technologies Conducted at request of Secretary Chu to assess potential contribution of coal based generation with CCS Deployment of coal with CCS can replace the existing coal fleet and provide up to 3,000 terawatt hours of electricity at affordable rates using 1.7 billion tons of coal. Construction of about 360 GW of coal generation with CCS at a $1.2 trillion investment cost will yield a $2.7 trillion GDP benefit, provide over 28 million job years during construction and support over 800,000 permanent jobs. Coal s carbon content creates a competitive advantage for America by enabling enhanced oil recovery of 2 million barrels per day Available at : 17

18 The Scale of the Challenge 7, , Million Metric Tons of CO 2 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Targeted Population in Millions 100 1,000 History CO2 Emissions Population 18 18

19 WHERE WILL THE ELECTRICITY COME FROM IN THE UNITED STATES? 19

20 California: The real story on why they use less electricity Highest electric rates west of New York 20% Energy Efficiency Programs 80% 27% fewer cooling degree days than rest of U.S. Smaller houses with more people

21 Cooling Degree Days April, May, June, July, August, September 21

22 Scale Sets the Context: If Power Plants Were Draft Animals Mule Natural Gas- 21% Sled Dog Hydro- 6% Workhorse Coal- 49% Burro Nuclear 19% Carrier Pigeon Wind- 1% 22 22

23 36 States Obtain at Least 30% of Their Electricity from Coal 23

24 Not All Power Plants Are Created Equal The Power Of One Coal Plant The True Cost Of Wind Generation John Amos Coal Power Plant 2,933 MW = turbines at 1.5mw and each 420 feet high ,000 acres of wind turbines 3. 2,200 or more MW of NG plant to back up wind 4. More than 1,000 miles of ridgeline consumed. 24

25 More NG Means Higher Electric Rates Source: EIA,

26 EIA: Gas Supply

27 A Six Nation Cartel Could Control Over 60% of the World s Natural Gas Russia Iran Venezuela Qatar UAE Algeria 62% 38% Rest of World "We are creating something similar to OPEC but with gas --Hugo Chavez on the formation of a gas cartel (September, 2009) Source: British Petroleum,

28 ALTERNATIVE FUELS: The Scale Needed to Replace Coal in the U.S. NUCLEAR: 250 more reactors NATURAL GAS: 17 more Trillion Cubic Feet HYDRO: 500 facilities size of Hoover Dam. The reality of physics is that electricity cannot be stored in large quantities an inevitable constraint on solar and wind generation

29 Geographic Dissonance: 80% of the Class 4 Wind is Far Removed from 70% of the Electricity Load 80% of Class 4 High Certainty Wind Areas 70% of Electricity Load Class 4 wind or higher can be useful for Class 4 wind or higher can???????? generating wind power with large Wind power with large turbines, EIA, turbines, EIA,

30 Wind Generation s Performance During 2006 California Heat Wave 2,500 2,250 Rated capacity of wind generation was 2500 MW 2,000 Megawatt Production 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, /13/2006 7/15/2006 7/17/2006 7/19/2006 7/21/2006 7/23/2006 * Adapted and estimated from Dixon, U.S. DOE (2006) 30

31 Electricity Makes the Difference: Korea South Korean preschool children average 3 inches taller and 7 pounds heavier than North Korean Children The Infant Mortality Rate in North Korea is 12 times higher than South Korea South Korea ranks 32 nd in GDP/capita. North Korea ranks 156th Only 20% of North Koreans have access to electric power. South Korean access approaches 100% 31 31

32 Lest We Forget : US Coal Reserves vs. Oil and NG Reserves 6,000 5,000 Quadrillion BTU 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 USA Coal Russia Iran Saudi Arabia Venezuela Natural Gas Crude Oil Coal Source: EIA,

33 The Steady Decline In U.S. Oil Production ( ) From , U.S. oil production declined the equivalent of the annual production of Iran. 33

34 The Staggering Importance of One Field Mexico Venezuela Nigeria Texas Ghawar Million Barrels per Day Ghawar has provided over 6% of the world s oil since Eisenhower was President

35 What Two Million Barrels a Day from Coal to Liquids Could Do 35

36 CO2- EOR Can Lead to 2 Million B/d Coal s Carbon Content is a Competitive Advantage: Provide access to 70 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil Create enough demand for CO2 to offset the emissions of 70 GW of coal based generation for 30 years Yield oil that is 50-80% carbon free Two million barrels of oil per day from EOR would require CO2 from 360 million tpy of coal