Climate Change and Adaptation Solutions for the Coastal Ocean along the US Northeast

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1 Climate Change and Adaptation Solutions for the Coastal Ocean along the US Northeast Scott Doney, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Jeff Donnelly, Daniel McCorkle, Glen Gawarkiewicz, & Jennie Rheuban

2 Talk Outline Climate change & coastal impacts Ocean warming & fisheries Sea-level rise & coastal flooding Water quality & ocean acidification Stakeholder engagement & adaptation solutions

3 Global Climate is Changing Now

4 Observed U.S. Temperature Change National Climate Assessment Walsh et al. 2014

5 Observed U.S. Precipitation Change National Climate Assessment Walsh et al. 2014

6 More Intense Precipitation Events & Flooding in Northeast Observed Change in Very Heavy Precipitation Observed U.S. Flooding National Climate Assessment Walsh et al. 2014

7 Ocean Warming & Fisheries

8 Northeast Shelf Ecosystem Coastal Ocean Warming NOAA/NMFS Chen et al. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans (2013)

9 Ocean Warming Event Temperature Anomalies NDBC Buoys Chen et al. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans (2013)

10 Atmosphere Circulation & Jet Stream WHOI Oceanus

11 Poleward Range Shifts in Marine Species Red Hake Population Survey Landings Nye et al. MEPS 2010 Pinsky & Fogarty Climatic Change 2012

12 Partnership with Commercial Fishing Fleet Concerto CTD Expand ocean climate data on shelf & slope Commercial fisherman directly involved in data collection & analysis Empower fishing community in long-term stewardship

13 Coastal Flooding & Sea-Level Rise 0.6 m Woods Hole, MA m/century 0.3 m -0.3 m NOAA -0.6 m

14 Buzzards Bay, MA & Coastal Flooding 20.9 ft ft ft 1954 Boldt et al Marine Geology

15 Boldt et al Marine Geology 1635 Hurricane

16 What if the1635 hurricane hit today? Woods Hole Falmouth 3.6 m (12 ft) Inundation Donnelly et al. In prep.

17 Past and Projected Changes in Global Sea Level National Climate Assessment Walsh et al. 2014

18 Sea-Level Rise Exacerbates Storm Surge Sea-level Rise NOAA & UCAR

19 N. Atl. Tropical SST N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones N. Hem. Mean Temp Ocean Warming & Hurricane Frequency Using IPCC AR4 models Worst Case Best Case Frequency of hurricanes may increase (particularly intense storms) Modern

20 Risks of Sea-Level Rise & Storm Impacts Population Change in U.S. Coastal Watershed Counties ( ) Web-based tools to raise awareness & support better informed decision making for coastal inundation risk Prehistoric & historical storm reconstructions with sea-level rise projections Assessment of wetland and artificial reef flood protection National Climate Assessment Moser et al. 2014

21 Water Quality & Acidification Buzzards Bay Coalition

22 Nutrient Eutrophication Warming effect? Rheuban et al., in prep.

23 Decadal Trends Temperature Total Nitrogen Chlorophyll Rheuban et al., in prep.

24 Oceans Absorb CO 2 & Become More Acidic Feely et al. Oceanography 2009 National Climate Assessment Walsh et al Ocean acidification reduces size of clams

25 Synthesis of Biological Impacts positive effect negative effect Kroecker et al. Global Change Biology(2 013)

26 Other Local Sources of Acidification Doney et al. PNAS 2007; Doney Science 2010; Kelly et al. Science 2011

27 Large Coastal Variability in CO 2 System & ph Present-day atmospheric CO 2 (~400 ppm) Present-day openocean surface ph (~8.1) McCorkle et al., in prep.

28 O Multiple Stressors 0 1/1/08 1/1/09 1/1/10 1/1/11 1/1/12 Waquoit Bay Oxygen ph (total ( mol/l) scale) 400 Menauhant 8.0 Childs River /1/08 1/1/09 1/1/10 1/1/11 1/1/ ph (total, scale) calc) /1/08 0 1/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ McCorkle et al., in prep. Oxygen ( mol/l)

29 Water Quality & Ocean Acidification Multiple stressors & impacts on coastal water quality warming nutrient loading ocean acidification Historical data & new observations Develop & test alternative management strategies Science communication & outreach public & local municipalities

30 Talk Outline Climate change & coastal impacts Ocean warming & fisheries Sea-level rise & coastal flooding Coastal water quality & ocean acidification Stakeholder engagement & adaptation solutions