Investing in adaptation to climate change

Transcription

1 Investing in adaptation to climate change Shirley Rodrigues, Head of Environment Green Cities Launch Event 14 th July, Pattaya, Thailand

2 Mayor of London Represents and promotes London Prepares strategies for London Sets budgets for the GLA and functional bodies Can direct Transport for London (TfL) and London Development Agency (LDA) Publishes a report on London s environment

3 Mayor of London s vision To develop London as an exemplary, sustainable world city based on the three balanced and interlocking elements of : Strong, long-term economic growth Social inclusivity Fundamental improvements in the environment and use of resources.

4 New powers & duties New duty to tackle Climate Change (mitigation and adaptation) Required to publish 2 statutory strategies Climate Change & Energy Climate Change Adaptation Work in progress -Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP)

5 London s changing climate Average projected changes Summer 2050 s (high emissions) +3ºC % rainfall Winter 2050 s (high emissions) ºC % rainfall Summer temperatures And the frequency and intensity of extreme weather is also projected to increase UK Climate Impacts Programme

6 How is London vulnerable? Flooding Overheating (heatwaves) Water shortages (drought) Poor air quality espisodes Ground instability (subsidence and heave) Wind storms Global climate events

7 Flood risk in London Low risk (0.1% - 0.5%) Moderate risk (0.5% - Significant 1.3%) risk (>1.3%) 5 flood sources Tidal Fluvial Surface Sewer Groundwater Frequently experience flooding from more than one source Climate change will increase probability, London s growth may increase consequence

8 Drought Identifying Areas of Water Stress, EA The Thames Region has lower water availability per capita than Morocco, Spain and Greece The South East of England is already seriously water stressed In a dry year, Thames Water forecast that current demand would be 170Ml/d greater than available supply London s catchments and aquifer are already over licensed or over abstracted Thames Water loses 23% (609Ml/d) of water through leakage Londoners use more water than the national average (168 vs 150 l/p/d) and only 19% of London households are metered (vs 26% national

9 Overheating 600 people died in the 2003 heatwave 2003 temperatures expected to be normal by 2040 London s microclimate amplifies the health impact of heatwaves (London is up to 10ºC warmer than the greenbelt on summer nights) Intensification of development may increase the urban heat island effect. Urban greening may offset the UHI effect Increasing demand for air-con will intensify the UHI effect and may affect energy supply (brown outs) Potential for summer cool poverty

10 Mayor s policies climate change and decentralised energy Set a CO 2 reduction target and promote decentralised energy - Energy Strategy Promote modal shift - Transport Strategy Use the planning regime - London Plan Economic development Economic Development Strategy/LDA Lead by example GLA and Functional Bodies

11 Adaptation

12 Risk-based approach Risk = Probability x Consequence x Vulnerability 1) Identify potential impacts 2) Map the probability of each impact 3) Identify who and what is at risk 4) Understand what makes people and assets more sensitive to risk 5) Understand how the risk may change and the associated uncertainties 6) Identify risk management options 7) Assess and review preferred options 8) Prioritise preferred action 9) Monitor and review

13 When to adapt and how much to adapt to? proactive reactive Prevent e.g. Structural measures, land use planning, mitigation Prepare e.g. Vulnerability assessments, public awareness, insurance, budget allowance Respond e.g. Contingency plans, emergency access Recover e.g. Support for those who cannot self rescue

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15 Flood risk management options Max water level rise: 0m 1m 2m 3m 4m Improve Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences Existing system Over-rotate Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences Flood storage, improve Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences Raise Defences Flood storage, over rotate Thames Barrier, raise d/s defences Flood storage, raise d/s defences New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defences New barrier, raise defences New barrage

16 Mitigation

17 CO 2 emissions from London excluding aviation (2006) Domestic 38% Ground Based Transport 22% 7% Industrial 33% Commercial and public sector 44 mt CO 2

18 Required CO 2 reductions Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO 2 ) Today 45.1m 44.3m 15% 20% 25% 10 year target (2016) = 20% 600 million tonnes CO 2 to % Profile of national targets and aspirations (against 1990) Proposed London reductions to achieve 450ppm stabilisation Target for London = 60% 60% (vs 2000)

19 Action Today to Protect Tomorrow: The Mayor s Climate Change Action Plan

20 Climate Change Action Plan four new programmes targeting London s homes, business and other organisations, our energy supply and transportation Together these programmes will cut 20 million tonnes from CO2 emissions in London annually by 2025 Key focus on retrofitting existing buildings (domestic & commercial) and behavioural change

21 Domestic sector example: Selected initiatives Planning guidelines Housing stock churn (demolitions, new build) Promote decentralised energy (eg CHP, micro-renewables); grid mix Lighting & appliances Promote take-up of energy-efficient versions Behavioural change Awareness campaigns, smart metering trials 10% 20% 10% 25% 35% Supply side Thermal efficiency of existing housing stock New Housing Strategy powers; Green Homes service; partnering with DIY retailers etc

22 Home Energy Efficiency Scheme 0

23 Home insulation potential Cavity Wall Insulation potential by Borough within London 1

24 Prioritising decentralised energy

25 Olympics & Paralympic Games Not just 4 weeks of sport - lasting legacy and catalyst for regeneration of the Lower Lea Valley - facilitate delivery of major transport improvements - ensure increased access to facilities and economic opportunities for deprived areas and communities - promote quality design, safety and security, inclusivity and sustainability - ensure the Games and legacy are exemplars in tackling climate change

26 London Climate Change Partnership Published guidance for Boroughs and developers Checklist for Development Good Practice Guide for Sustainable Communities Case Study Companion to the Checklist for Development Support on Adaptation issues for housing, policy and development Retrofitting existing homes study (Nov 2007)

27 For further information: Shirley Rodrigues Head of Environment