Preparing for Hot Weather Impacts on Health in Vermont. Jared Ulmer & Nate Schafrick Climate & Health Program, Vermont Department of Health

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1 Preparing for Hot Weather Impacts on Health in Vermont Jared Ulmer & Nate Schafrick Climate & Health Program, Vermont Department of Health

2 Building Resilience Against Climate Effects 16 states, 2 cities

3 Climate change is already happening in Vermont

4 Heat is the #1 weather-related cause of death in the United States Source: weather.com, Weather Fatalities Per Year (30 Year Average) (NWS)

5 1995 Chicago Heat Wave Source: EPA, 2014: Climate Change Indicators in the United States, rd edition. EPA 430 -R , 107 pp. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.

6 2003 European Heat Wave Hottest summer on record since ,000 70,000 deaths Significant crop losses Sources: Haines et al. Public Health 2006;120: Vandentorren et al. Am J Public Health 2004; 94(9): Robine et al. Comptes Rendus Biologies. 2008; 331(2):

7 2016 Vermont City Marathon First ever cancellation (midrace) due to dangerous heat 15 recorded emergency dept. visits (statewide) for heat complaints Terence Hughes, from Hanover, New Hampshire, is helped by the medical staff after collapsing at the finish line during the People's United Bank Vermont City Marathon in (Photo: BRIAN JENKINS/for the Free Press)

8 How hot will it get? Source: Third National Climate Assessment Source: EPA

9 What are we working towards? Better protect Vermonters from routine hot weather Prepare for the Tropical Storm Irene of hot weather events in Vermont Strategies to consider: Communications & outreach Emergency preparedness & response Long-term adaptation Process: How can we improve collaboration? Should we formalize roles & actions in a Hot Weather Emergency Response Plan?

10 Today s agenda Health impacts in Vermont Introductions National Weather Service role & updates Breakout discussions

11 Heat-Related Illnesses Source: marchingbandwellness.com

12 Heat Illness Vulnerability Outdoor workers and hobbyists Urban residents Elderly and children Homeless / housing insecure Pre-existing medical conditions (e.g. cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes, mental illness) Social or physical isolation Limited economic resources

13 Determining the Association

14 Average daily # of heat complaint emergencies Determining the Association Daily ED visits for heat complaints in Vermont, by maximum daily temperature, Maximum daily temperature ( F)

15 Percent of of Heat ED Visits at or below HI, (EARS) Number of Days per Year at or Above HI A better visualization for Heat ED Visits? 100% Cumulative Heat Complaint Emergency Department (ED) Visits by Burlington Heat Index % 80% % 60% 50% % 30% 20% 10% % 0.0 Maximum Heat Index - Burlington Airport

16 Days per year reaching at least 87 F Expect more frequent hot days in the future Current and projected days/year reaching at least 87 F B1 (lower emissions) A2 (higher emissions) Source: Vermont Department of Health

17 Vermont Heat Vulnerability Index The Vermont Heat Vulnerability Index draws together 17 different measures of vulnerability in 6 different themes: population, socioeconomic, health, environmental, climate, and heat illness. These measures are combined to measure the overall vulnerability of Vermont towns to heat-related events. This is a first step to identify populations that may be more vulnerable to extreme heat, however local knowledge should always be considered when it is available. Heat Vulnerability Measures Population Characteristics: 1. % population less than 5 years old 2. % population 65 years old or older Socioeconomic Characteristics: 3. % population living below Federal Poverty Line 4. % adult population with no high school diploma 5. % adults 65 and older living alone 6. % adult population with no health insurance Health Conditions: 7. % adults with diabetes 8. % adults with asthma 9. % adults with hypertension 10. % adults who are obese 11. % adults in fair or poor health 12. All-cause mortality, warm season deaths Environmental Characteristics: 13. Housing units per square mile 14. % covered with Impervious surface 15. % covered by forest canopy Climate Characteristics: 16. Average number of days per year 87 F or hotter Observed Heat Illness: 17. Heat-related emergency department visits

18 Population This theme indicates vulnerability based on the population composition of the town. Young children and older adults are age groups at higher risk for heat-related illnesses. Environmental This theme indicates vulnerability based on environmental characteristics. Summer heat is exacerbated in locations with dense housing, a high proportion of paved areas and rooftops, and few trees. Acclimatization This theme indicates vulnerability based on how acclimated residents are to hot summer temperatures. Those experiencing fewer hot days per year tend to be less adapted to the impacts of summer heat. Socioeconomic This theme indicates vulnerability based on social and economic resources available to town residents. Older adults living alone, those with less education, and those with fewer economic resources are often less able to find relief during summer heat. Vulnerability Key: Health This theme indicates vulnerability based on the health status of town residents. Those with preexisting medical conditions are more likely to suffer health impacts during summer heat events. Heat Emergencies This theme indicates vulnerability based on emergency department visits for heat illness in recent years. Towns that currently experience a high rate of heat-related emergencies are expected to continue experiencing a high rate in the near future.

19 Introductions Your name & the organization(s) that you represent How does your organization already help to protect health from hot weather impacts? What one concern do you hope that we can address to protect health from heat impacts?