Development of a smoke management emissions and transport modelling framework for Victoria Australia

Transcription

1 Development of a smoke management emissions and transport modelling framework for Victoria Australia Martin Cope, Mick Meyer, Clare Murphy, Kevin Tolhurst, Andrew Sullivan, Nigel Tapper, Alan Wain, Chris Weston The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

2 Bushfires in South Eastern Australia Canberra fire storm 18 th Jan fatalities 500 houses Ash Wednesday VIC, SA 16 th Feb km 2 burned 75 fatalities Black Saturday VIC 7 th February fatalities 2056 houses 2400 km 2 RECOMMENDATION 56 The State fund and commit to implementing a long-term program of prescribed burning based on an annual rolling target of 5 per cent minimum of public land. 2

3 LATITUDE LATITUDE The Old- Smoke Plume Envelope Forecasting Australian Air Quality Forecasting System- Operational 3-D CTM Australian Smoke Management Forecasting System- Tactical; Hysplit; web-based State-level products too. Retrieve automated hotspot locations via satellite images Process the data to determine fire locations Initiate qualitative emissions at source locations and compute transport and dispersion as a passive scalar WOOMERA Location of Sentinel hotspots Jan :00 Jan 11, 2005 WOOMERA PORT AUGUSTA PORT AUGUSTA KIMBA WHYALLA PORT PIRIE KIMBA WHYALLA PORT PIRIE CLARE CLARE PORT LINCOLN MAITLAND GAWLER ADELAIDE MURRAYBRIDGE PORT LINCOLN MAITLAND ELIZABETH NORTHFIELD NETLEY KANGAROO IS CAPE JERVIS KANGAROO IS CAPE JERVIS LONGITUDE LONGITUDE The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

4 The New- A framework for undertaking quantified smoke plume impact assessments Knowledge Gaps Coarse fuel types and their combustion characteristics; The relationship between fire behaviour and chemical constituent emissions; The relationship between fire behaviour and heat flux; The mapping between uncertainties in inputs and system endpoints The Framework A flexible approach derived from CONSUME; BLUESKY; ASMFS; AAQFS Emission characterization studies; model development; System Verification and Uncertainty analysis; Training + deployment The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

5 Great Divide Fire (summer of 2006/2007) devastated 1,048,238 hectares over 69 days PM (mg m -3 ) OZONE (ppb) Melbourne (4M) 400 EPAV-BRIGHTON PM Ozone Time (h) 0

6 tonnes/hour EMISSIONS (tonnes) FIRE EMISSIONS METHODOLOGY BACKGROUND Fire area: daily area burnt; Ground Surveys Fuel load: VAST 1.5 (litter, coarse-wd); Efficiency: NGGI factors; Diurnal : Parameterised; Emission Factors: Literature; Plume Rise: prescribed MONTHLY EMISSIONS- DEC E+07 Anthropogenic Fire 1.0E E E E+03 NOx CO VOC PM25 SO2 POLLUTANT CO (kg) HOURLY EMISSIONS- DEC 06 CARBON MONOXIDE Fire Anthropogenic Day Number

7 Concentration (ppb) Concentration (mg m -3 ) TRANSPORT MODELLING METHODOLOGY Emissions: speciated; Meteorology: 400TAPM; CCAM; UM Chemical Transport: AAQFS CTM CB ISORROPIA VBS Prescribed plume rise Brighton PM obs_conc no fires 1000 m 2000 m 3000 m _1448 Elemental Carbon Time (h) Brighton: ozone obs_conc no f ires 1000 m 2000m 3000 m TH December- hr Time (h)

8 MODEL SENSITIVIES Plume Rise Emissions Persistence (transport + chemistry) PM2.5 (mg m -3 ) (1000m 2000 m) O 3 (ppb) (VOC ext - VOC sav ) PM 2.5 peak daily for December 2006 O 3 - peak 1-h for December 2006 Hysplit- Hour 14 UTC 8 th December 2006 VOC ext - Extratropical speciation VOC sav - Savannah speciation

9 Fire Burn Behaviour Studies

10 Characterization of Smoke Plume Chemistry Mixed smoke/ plumes Targeted sources-> filter and gas samples Open path FTIR Woozle Backpacks

11 Emission Factor (g (kg fuel) -1 ) (% emitted C) Emission Factors for Australian Vegetation EF_CH CH 4 Logs kulgnuki flaming smoldering kulgnuki_smouldering Cow pats litter PM, total VOC Woodheaters: VOC Woodheaters:PM10 Kulnguki VOC MCE N 2 O October - Eucalypt Woodland July -Eucalypt Woodland October - Sandstone Woodland July- Sandstone Woodland October- Spinifex July- Spinifex October- Sorghum EF N 2 O (% emitted N) Combustion efficiency MCE

12 Flux tower and remote sensing measures of fire radiative power (frp) Key element of field campaigns. Objectives are to: 1. Determine heat loss processes from SE Australian fires; in particular partitioning between radiation (that satellites can observe), sensible, latent and soil heat flux. 2. Compare/validate surface observations of FRP with aircraft and low Earth orbit observations. 3. Compare/validate heat release rates with other estimates (e.g. Phoenix) for improved plume rise calculations. 4. Initiate evaluation of relationship between FRP and biomass combustion for SE Australian fuels. FTIR observations integral for this

13 Phoenix RapidFire- Fire Spread Model 3-year project; Quantifying emissions Quantifying heat flux Quantifying uncertainty System deployment

14 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Martin Cope Principal Research Scientist Phone: martin.cope@csiro.au Web: Thank you