IIASA & Israel Benefits of IIASA Membership

Transcription

1 IIASA & Israel Benefits of IIASA Membership Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat IIASA Director General and Chief Executive Officer April 2016

2 CONTENTS 1. Israel and IIASA: Common Interests 2. Value Proposition of IIASA Membership for Israel 1. From Science to Evidence-based Policy 2. Contributing to the Research Base in Systems Analysis 3. Contributing to Israeli Foreign Policy 3. Israel s Value to IIASA

3 Israel and IIASA: Common Interests

4 THE POWER OF SCIENCE In Israel, a land lacking in natural resources, we learned to appreciate our greatest national advantage: our minds. Through creativity and innovation, we transformed barren deserts into flourishing fields and pioneered new frontiers in science and technology. Shimon Peres

5 CHALLENGES THAT REQUIRE AN INTEGRATED & INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE (EXAMPLES) WATER SECURITY: More than half of Israel s total natural water originates outside its borders. New sources of water (e.g. desalination) are energy intensive. ENERGY SECURITY: Natural gas discoveries in Eastern Mediterranean raise prospect of regional cooperation and allow Israel to cease being an energy island.

6 CHALLENGES THAT REQUIRE AN INTEGRATED & INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE (EXAMPLES) AIR POLLUTION: Particulate matter high in Israel (22 nd worst in world according to WHO), but IIASA research shows many sources of PM are outside a country s borders. DEMOGRAPHICS: Population aging, human capital development, population growth and religion, migration

7 IIASA An international research institute that conducts multidisciplinary research to help policymakers find long-term solutions to global and regional challenges facing countries

8 Value Proposition of IIASA Membership

9 IIASA membership would benefit Israel by helping it to: 1. Better understand and find solutions to the complex global systems that are integrally connected to and impinge on Israel s economy, environment, government, and society.

10 RESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES Integrated Interdisciplinary International Independent Solution-oriented Long term Trade offs = Systems Analysis

11 INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENTISTS 29% 30% Natural Scientists & Engineers Social Scientists 41% Mathematicians and others

12 GLOBAL PROBLEMS REQUIRE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS TO FIND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS 23 countries with IIASA membership

13 GLOBAL PROBLEMS REQUIRE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS TO FIND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS IIASA has 3,505 alumni in 90 countries

14 GLOBAL PROBLEMS REQUIRE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS TO FIND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS 850 co-authors from 375 institutions in 72 countries

15 EFFICIENT URBAN ENERGY SYSTEMS Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA 15

16 INTEGRATED SYSTEMS APPROACH HAS IMPACT 1. Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 2. EU National Emissions Ceiling Directive 3. EU Thematic Clean Air Strategy 4. EU Climate and Energy Strategy for Climate and Clean Air Coalition to reduce short-lived climate pollutants 6. Objectives of the UN Secretary General s Sustainable Energy for All Initiative 7. Helps Brazil with long term planning for future energy 8. Catastrophe Bonds to make Mexican public finances resilient to major natural disasters 9. Pest management practices in forests in North America and Scandinavia 10. Forest management practices in Russia 11. Underpins US Dept of Justice antitrust case against Microsoft (technology lock-in) 12. Emission scenarios for IPCC Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports

17 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN ISRAEL VISION FOR SUSTAINABILITY: Israel of 2030 will be a state whose citizens reside in an environment that enables economic well-being, social resilience, and personal security while enabling active involvement in community life in all its various forms. MINISTRY s SCIENCE OBJECTIVES: 1. To increase international and regional cooperation in research related to combating desertification, climate change and water conservation. 2. To support basic and applied environmental research projects including water and air pollution studies

18 RELATED IIASA RESEARCH The overall objective of the Energy Program is to understand the nature of alternative future energy transitions, their implications for human well-being and the environment, and how they might be shaped and directed by current and future decision makers. Around the world, the Mitigation of Air Pollution & Greenhouse Gases Program s systems approach is framing new policies that maximize co-benefits between air quality management, greenhouse gas mitigation and other policy priorities. The objectives of the Water Program are to compile, consolidate & enhance knowledge of global water supply and demand balances, to advance the incorporation of hydrology and hydrologic uncertainty into integrated assessment modeling efforts and scenario development, and to provide a sound scientific basis for responding to current and future global water challenges by assessing the robustness and complementarity of portfolios of potential solutions.

19 NEXUS SOLUTIONS FOR WATER, FOOD, ENERGY AND ECOSYSTEM SECURITY UNDER RAPID GLOBAL CHANGE

20 CLEARING UP EUROPE S AIR POLLUTION HOTSPOTS Analysis of particulate matter at street level Hotspots in major European cities: Milan, Paris, Warsaw Multiple sources local, national and international DOI: /ACP

21 GOVERNANCE OF TRANSBOUNDARY WATER RESOURCES ALONG THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO BORDER Existing opportunities to adapt the current binational water allocation regime on the RG/RB Basin. Enabling a mechanism on protection and conservation of transboundary waters based on the notion of feasible use. There is room for improving the US Mexico Transboundary Water Resources governance. However, the missing ingredient is binational-political will.

22 IIASA membership would benefit Israel by helping it to: 2. Develop the research base for systems analysis in Israel.

23 DEVELOPING THE ISRAELI RESEARCH BASE Our mission is to support and promote Israeli basic research through a bottom-up approach initiated by talented, curiosity-driven individuals, and to nurture entrepreneurship among the scientific research community. A central goal of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Space is to foster a vast international scientific network which enables it to uphold the highest levels of scientific research in Israel.

24 Increasing International Competition Increasing Investment (R&D as % of GDP) China 2.2% by 2015 Finland 3.5% in 2014 Germany 3% in 2014 Japan 4% by 2016 Sweden 3.4% in 2014 UK 2.5% by 2016 Increasing International Collaboration Researcher in UK +66% Researcher in UK + 2 years abroad Some 80-90% of productivity attributable to technology transfer derives from foreign research

25 I want to research with the best scientists in the world IIASA gives researchers access to complementary knowledge, new perspectives, new methodologies, new data, new partnerships, and new sources of funding research staff (83% of IIASA) Revitalized every year through: 40% new researchers Global network of ~2,500 scholars

26 RESEARCHER MOBILITY Number of Researchers Employed by IIASA ( ) Full versus Part Time Researchers Employed by IIASA in 2015 (to 12 October) Full time Part time Research Staff (to 12 October) Leavers Newcomers Returning researchers Nationalities

27 RESEARCH NETWORK Research Partner Institutions in NMO countries /

28 PROGRAMS FOR EARLY-CAREER SCIENTISTS Young Scientists Summer Program Postdoctoral Fellowship Program International School of Excellence (forthcoming) 28

29 DEVELOPING RESEARCH TOOLS IN FOR EXAMPLE DEMOGRAPHY OR SYSTEMIC RISKS Israeli National Economic Council: Strategic Socio-Economic Issues (2015): Human Capital Development (demography) Aging Population (demography) Financial Infrastructure (systemic risks)

30 PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN ISRAEL Age (in Years) Israel - Base Year 2010 To update with Finland 7.4 Million Males Females Population in Thousands

31 PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN ISRAEL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Age (in Years) Israel - Projections SSP Million Males Females Population in Thousands

32 PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN ISRAEL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Age (in Years) Israel - Projections SSP Million Males Females Population in Thousands

33 PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN ISRAEL Age (in Years) Israel - Base Year 2010 To update with Finland 7.4 Million Males Females Population in Thousands

34 PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN ISRAEL CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT Age (in Years) Israel - Projections SSP Million Males Females Population in Thousands

35 PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN ISRAEL CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT Age (in Years) Israel - Projections SSP Million Males Females Population in Thousands

36 INVESTING IN HUMAN CAPITAL ACHIEVES MULTIPLE GOALS Economic growth Adaptation to climate change Movement toward democracy DOI: /j x /science /science

37 HOW MUCH OF EUROPE WILL BE OLD BY 2050? Conventional measure of age Over 65 years Prospective measure of age Old age = 15 years of remaining life expectancy % 28% 33% 15% 16% 19% Sanderson, W., and S. Scherbov (2015). Faster increases in human life expectancy could lead to slower population aging. PLOS ONE. 15 April doi: /journal.pone

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40 RISK OF FINANCIAL CRISIS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED Researchers from Banco de México, IIASA and others have developed a more sophisticated methodology to analyze the risk of financial crises. In Mexico, which the researchers used as a case study, they found that systemic risk levels are about four times higher today than before the financial crisis yet these risks are not reflected in market-based measures. Poledna A. Molina-Borboa JL, Martinez-Jaramillo S, van der Leij M, Thurner S (2015). The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises. Financial Stability.

41 IIASA would benefit Israel by helping it to: 3. Establish new multilateral scientific relationships and contributing to Israel s soft power through science diplomacy.

42 COUNTRIES WITH IIASA MEMBERSHIP 23 Member Countries representing: 71% of the world s economy & 63% of the world s population

43 SUPPORTING FOREIGN POLICY GOALS Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants Southern African Young Scientists Summer Program

44 Israel s Value to IIASA

45 REGIONAL GAPS Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa

46 THE MIDDLE EAST & ISRAEL Geographically, the Middle East has long been an important bridge linking Europe, Africa, and Asia. More recently, the changing geopolitics of oil and the growth of extremism are transforming the region which in turn are impacting the rest of the world as much as global change is impacting the region. For IIASA to conduct integrated assessments of global transformations, it needs to develop stronger links to the Middle East. Israel has one of the largest economies in the Middle East along with a highly productive science and innovation system.

47 THANK YOU FURTHER INFORMATION: