Energy Supply Setting

Transcription

1 2002 AAPG Briefing Energy and Environment: A Partnership that Works Energy Supply Setting Pete Stark IHS Energy Group Washington, D.C. 23 September, 2002

2 Thesis: Public desires secure, reliable, clean, sustainable & affordable energy supplies that are available on demand. Balanced environmental and energy development policies needed to meet energy demand growth forecasts. Oil and natural gas expected to contribute dominant share of energy supplies for > 20 years.

3 Energy Supply Issues Confusing & conflicting information about energy supplies Challenging oil & gas demand scenarios Natural gas: the challenge & opportunity of this decade Public policy pressure for renewable resources Petroleum industry squeezed by volatile markets, financial constraints, anti-hydrocarbon pressures, regulations and limited access to prospects

4 Challenging Oil Demand Scenarios World Oil Demand Consumption in MMbopd % % World % % U.S.A % % Is 2020 target attainable? Source: IEA and EIA

5 Confusing Oil Supply Predictions Campbell - Laherrère Deffeyes School Oil ultimate recoverable: 1,694* MMMb Produced 849 Remaining 845 MMMb Reserves/Production 36 Years Oil production will peak and commence decline by the end of this decade. (* 2000 data excludes heavy oil & reserves growth.)

6 World Oil Resources Major Non-conventional Liquid Resources In Place 3,000,000 2,500,000 Alberta Bitumen & Orinoco Extra Heavy Oil co mpared with Saudi Arabia Remaining In Place Cumulative Production Million Barrels 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Alberta Bitumen Ultimate Alberta Bitumen Established Orinoco Extra-Heavy Saudi Arabia

7 World Liquids Resources Including Reserves Growth, Oil Sands / Extra-heavy Oil & Yet-to-Find With Percentage Depletion at End-2001 Million Barrels 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , ,000 Cumulative Conventional Liquids Production Undiscovered Conventional Liquids (USGS) at End 2001 Remaing Oil Sands and Undeveloped Orinoco with Reserves Growth Conventional Liquids Reserves Growth Remaining Discovered Conventional Liquids at End % (50.4% w/o oil sand) 17.4% (30.3% w/o Orinoco) 27.3% 21.2% 400, % 200, % 40.2% 0 North America Latin America Europe Former Soviet Union Africa Middle East Asia-Pacific

8 World Liquids Resources IHS Energy Group December 2001 Liquids Resources (million barrels) Conventional Liquids Resources Discovered to End-2001 Alberta Bitumen Orinoco Undeveloped Total Discovered Liquids Total Discovered Cumulative Production Remaining Recoverable Percent Remaining Year 2001 Production Year 2001 R/P 2,069, ,470 1,112, % 26, ,500 3, , % 238 1, , , % 0 n/a 2,632, ,550 1,671, % 26, Total Discovered Liquids w ith "Reserves Growth" Total Discovered Liquids w ith "R G th" d "Y t t Fi d" 2,045, % 76 2,848, % 106 Remaining recoverable Campbell IHSE 845 2, ,003

9 International Resources Discovered vs Resources Put On-stream 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent Pre Resources Discovered in Period Resources On-stream in Period (excludes USA and Canada)

10 Wells X 1, U.S. O&G Well Completions OIL Gas Source: IHSE

11 Mb/d Issue: Energy Security Dependence on Oil Imports U. S. Petroleum Imports vs. Production = 7,627Mb/d 2001 = 11,607Mb/d = 7,417Mb/d 2001 = 5,848Mb/d DOE Imports IHS Prod DOE Prod

12 Oil Supply Volatility OPEC Quotas & Production: MM Bopd (Dec) Capacity (Dec) (Dec) (Dec) Capacity (06) (11) (04) (08) Quota Overage Iraq

13 Oil Supply & Policy Issues No near-term decline in oil supplies Crisis policies not required. Orderly transition to alternate sources. Reduce import dependency boost production Access to prospective lands Investment incentives tax credits, royalties Efficient regulatory processes reduce delays & costs Supply security: Enhance Western Hemisphere policies & alliances

14 World Gas Demand Consumption in Tcf/yr /yr % % World % % U.S.A % ~ % September 9, 2001 U.S ~ % U.S ~ % U.S Sept. 6, % % % Source: EIA

15 World Natural Gas Resources Produced and Remaining Natural Gas Resources (Including Reserves Growth and Conventional Yet-to-Find) (With Percentage Depletion at End-2001) Billion Standard Cubic Feet 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Cumulative Gas Production Undiscovered Gas (USGS) at End 2001 Gas Reserves Growth Remaining Discovered Gas at End % Total Remaining Tcf = 11,750 Years = % 32.5% 15.7% 12.9% 4.9% 14.7% 500,000 0 North America Latin America Europe Former Soviet Union Africa Middle East Asia-Pacific

16 U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel quadtrillion Btu Source: EIA Annual Energy Review Petroleum Information/Dwights LLC d/b/a IHS Energy Group.