Climate and Infrastructure in Africa s Major River Basins

Transcription

1 Climate and Infrastructure in Africa s Major River Basins ClimDev-Africa Dr. Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep The World Bank Presentation at Second Climate Change and Development in Africa Conference Sub-Theme II: Sustainable Energy Access for All Africans by 2030 Session: Water-Agriculture-Energy and Climate Change Nexus October 20, 2012 Addis Ababa

2 Level above Jinja gauge (m) Africa currently faces many climate risks Temperature Precipitation Droughts Disaster Impacts Intra-year Floods Inter-year Storms Year

3 % Country Area Impacted by Extremes (+ve for Flood, -ve for Drought) and there is more in store Climate variability will remain Historic Climate Variability Weighted Anomaly of Statistical Precipitation (WASP) Index Ethiopia Temperatures will rise Moderate flood Intermediate flood Severe flood Moderate drought Intermediate drought Severe drought Sea levels will rise Precipitation will? 3

4 Precipitation Change in Africa by 2050s - which GCM is right? Sources: WCRP s CMIP3 (Meehl et al. 2007), downscaled by Maurer et al. (2008). This map shows the precipitation change projected by the considered climate model, under the A2 scenario for as compared to Map displays gridded data (cell size=0.5dd).

5 Temperature Change in Africa by 2050s GCMs more in agreement This map shows the temperature change projected by the considered climate model, under the A2 scenario for as compared to Map displays gridded data (cell size=0.5dd). Sources: Based on data from the Climate Wizard ( developed by The Nature Conservancy, The University of Washington, and the University of Southern Mississippi).

6 How about Monthly?

7 Other things are also changing Growing Population Urban Growing Areas: Cities with Population greater than 1 million Areas that contribute Growing Economies to Africa s GDP Dakar Lagos 15 million 8.7 million 5.6 million Cairo Khartoum Growing Cities Gross Cell Product in 2005 (1995 US$, billions) Kinshasa Dar-es- Salaam Population in 2000 Sources: FAO based on UN Cape Town Data Source: Statistics Division, UN Agglomerations 2008 Population Data Source: The World Bank AFR Water Resources in a Changing Climate, 2010 based on data from GECON GDP Dataset, Yale University 2010

8 Life Expectancy (years) Why is Electricity Critical for Development in Africa? There is much catching up to do 2009 Data from The World Bank GNI per capita (US$/yr)

9 Cameroon Nigeria Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Burkina Faso Ghana Senegal Algeria Egypt Morocco orld Average Elec consumption (kwh/yr)/capita Electricity Generation (Billion Kwh) 3,500 3,000 HYDROPOWER 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, MENA AFR NA LAC EAP ECA Hydropower potential is one of Africa s most promising drivers for green growth 2,000 1,800 (United States consumption kwh/yr/capita) ,600 1,400 1,200 1, kwh/capita-year minimum consumption for reasonable quality of life 800 Power Outages, Days per Year, Cost more than 5% of GDP in Malawi, Uganda and South Africa, and 1-5% in Senegal, Kenya and Tanzania (Foster and Briceno-Garmendia, 2010)

10 AGRICULTURE WORLD BANK AFRICA Spatial Services Helpdesk Sources: Based on data from AQUASTAT (FAO, 2010)

11 Africans live largely in rural areas and depend on Agriculture

12 Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Major knowledge program on Africa s infrastructure needs for energy, transport, water, and ICT Partners: AUC, NEPAD, RECs, AfDB, DFID, PPIAF, AFD, EC, KFW Comprehensive overview of current infrastructure status, policy, institutional and financial challenges Concludes that Africa needs to spend US$93 b/yr to catch-up on infrastructure with rest of developing world Estimates made under a no climate change presumption Resource needed to upgrade Africa Infrastructure (US$ billion/ year) Electricity Water supply and sanitation Transport ICT Irrigation Spending Efficiency gap Funding gap

13 PIDA confirms the scale of Africa s infrastructure challenge Cost of Priority Action Plan (US$ billion) Transport 37% Sector Modern highways Modern railways Port capacity Hydroelectric power generation Interconnecting power lines New water storage capacity Energy 59% Target by ,300 km 30,200 km 1.3 billion tons 54,150 MW 16,500 km 20,101 hm3 TWR 3% ICT 1%

14 Why a new study? 1. Few existing national, sub-regional and regional infrastructure development plans address climate change implications 2. Existing studies on climate change tend to: Focus on impact Address one sector at a time Provide limited project-level insights on adaptation responses 3. Climate science is evolving

15 Why is the Climate Sensitivity of Infrastructure important? 1. Role: Such Infrastructure is critical to economic growth and poverty alleviation efforts 2. Long Life: CC will impact; potential Regret of poor design/operation is too high: cannot plan, design, and manage infrastructure as in past 3. Efficiency: Need to use scarce resources wisely for robust infrastructure Need for Infrastructure to Adapt or Perish? Higher costs? Co-benefits? But How? Need new methodologies to take into account climate variability and climate change more effectively

16 Africa Climate and Infrastructure Diagnostic Objectives 1. Quantify the impacts of climate change on performance of infrastructure in the water (irrigation, water supply, hydro-power), power pool, and transport sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa 2. Identify, demonstrate and cost, robust adaptation approaches for planning, evaluating and designing specific infrastructure investments in the face of climate uncertainty 3. Formulate actionable recommendations for policy makers (at the regional, sub-regional and national levels) on how to enhance the climate resilience of infrastructure development, and help mobilize the required resources

17 Scope Water-Related Power Systems/Power Pools Transport

18 Support regional integration: The case of power pools Central Africa East Africa West Africa Southern Africa Source:

19 US$ b Positioning Africa on climate finance discussions (with figures and plans) Mitigation 150 Adaptation Actual Funds 120 Needs Estimated annual incremental climate costs required for 2 C trajectory

20 Africa Climate and Infrastructure Diagnostic A partnership to support investments in Africa s infrastructure under a future uncertain climate Donors Nordic Dev Fund TFESSD Germany (KfW) France (AFD) DFID (?) Implementation World Bank UNECA Partners AU/NEPAD/AfDB RECs RBOs Power Pools Others?

21 Conclusion Substantial investments in infrastructure are critical for Africa s development Many of these investments (esp. in Water, Power, and Transport) are climate sensitive New approaches are required to help analyze climate change additionality on investment designs and costs The Africa Infrastructure and Climate Diagnostic is trying to address this gap 21

22 Thank you! Dr. Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep Senior Environmental Specialist Africa Region, The World Bank 1818 H St NW, Washington DC harsh@worldbank.org 22