Modelling scenarios for the assessment

Transcription

1 The Regional Integrated Assessment of Atmospheric Issues in the Asia Pacific: Modelling scenarios for the assessment Markus Amann Program Director, IIASA IGES/IIASA workshop: The Atmospheric Pollution, Climate Change Nexus in Asia: Implications for a New Development Agenda Hayama, February 23, 2016

2 Overarching question of the Assessment (Draft) How could clean air policies in Asia enhance human wellbeing, secure food production and biodiversity, support social and economic development, slow down temperature increase, adapt to climate change, and contribute to global climate targets?

3 Structure of the assessment (as proposed by the UNEP/APCAP secretariat) Part 1: Sustainable development requires managing atmospheric pollution Part 2: Mapping scenarios for SDGs and identifying solutions Part 3: Strengthening implementation and scaling action

4 Part 1: Sustainable development requires managing atmospheric pollution Objective: Demonstrate that managing atmospheric pollution is central to sustainable development in Asia: Atmospheric pollution is inextricably linked to environmental, social, economic dimensions of sustainable development Review of transformational and integrated SDGs Links between atmospheric pollution and relevant SDGs Atmospheric pollution is a nexus issue, and tackling it will give multiple benefits (health, economic, climate, food, water, energy security, employment, etc.)

5 Objective: Part 2: Scenarios and solutions Provide options that can provide optimum benefits in the wider context of sustainable development using robust science and a comprehensive approach. Key aspects: Identify a limited set of top measures that bring the greatest benefits (by sub region?); Clear picture of cost and benefits of each action; Consequences of timing of action and inaction; Case studies of technical measures to support practical implementation of identified options.

6 Reduce health impacts from outdoor and household air pollution Maximize co benefits on climate Effective portfolios of measures reducing air pollutants Complementary SLCP + CO 2 measures with additional health benefits Human health Econ. wealth Food Ecosystems Employment Climate

7 Envisaged modelling work 1. Develop a shared baseline (economic, policies, emissions) 2. Baseline impacts health, crops, control costs 3. Identify potential policy measures/interventions and quantify the scope for individual policy interventions in different countries/regions 4. Assess costs, impacts and feasibility of each intervention 5. Identify most promising interventions 6. Construct an emission scenario with the most promising measures 7. Quantify benefits and costs of the scenario 8. Determine contributions to SDGs

8 Some pollution related challenges Incomplete complete coverage of current PM2.5/O 3 monitoring in Asia (what is the model domain?) Explain perceived discrepancies, e.g., declining emissions in bottom up inventories vs increasing frequency of episodes and results from remote sensing Omission of some important sources in current emission inventories, e.g., garbage burning, straw smoldering, etc. Source apportionment: Should we trust existing peer reviewed studies?

9 Many source apportionment studies neglect important emission sources

10 Sources of ambient PM2.5 in Delhi WHO guideline Kiesewettter et al., in prep.

11 Air quality management as one important instrument to achieve SDGs End poverty Hunger, food security Health and well being Education Gender equality Access to clean water Access to clean energy Economic growth Resilient infrastructures Reduce inequality Sustainable cities Sustainable consumption Climate action Marine resources Terrestrial ecosystems Peaceful societies Institutions

12 Some challenges for assessing the linkages to SDGs (1): Modelling health impacts with the appropriate spatial resolution Delhi: Population (16 millions) plotted on 0.5*0.5 degree grid Urban and rural population World, 2010

13 Premature deaths (1000/yr) Some challenges for assessing the linkages to SDGs (2): Health impacts at high PM concentrations Future health impacts of ambient PM in India Integrated exposure response function Linear RR 1.04, Japanese life table with current air quality legislation with maximum technically 0 feasible emission reductions Health benefits of pollution controls PM2.5 impacts from alternative hypotheses on response functions (incl. WHO Europe, IER/GBD, different baseline mortalities, smokers, etc.) Current global health assessments (e.g., GBD) assume a common integrated response (IER) function for outdoor pollution and smoking This implies declining benefits from reducing high PM concentrations in Asia What is the evidence for the outdoor pollution range in Asia? How to establish this for the assessment?

14 Investing into air pollution control has positive macro economic impacts Additional employments from the JingJinJi Action Plan

15 Some challenges for assessing the linkages to SDGs (3): Socio economic heterogeneity among polluters, affected populations and groups that should take action Various dimensions of inequalities are important aspects for policy action and SDGs While much of the understanding of the physical aspects is available in Asia, addressing the socioeconomic implications requires more work.

16 Summary The Asian assessment will embed air quality management into a wider development context Focus on a limited set of promising measures with multiple benefits to SDGs There are scientific challenges to address some of the important features of pollution in Asia, and to characterize the contributions to the SDG targets. The Asian community is well set to overcome these challenges, but this will require time and resources