Integrated Landscape Monitoring: Prairie Pilot

Transcription

1 Integrated Landscape Monitoring: Prairie Pilot Prairie Pilot Science Team U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

2 JUSTIFICATION & NEED USDA Agency influences 400 million acres of cropland and CRP land in the U.S. [2003 Annual NRI-Land Use, May 2006] Steward of 193 million acres of publiclyowned forests and rangelands in the U.S. [ 12/1/2006] USDOI Steward of 506 million acres of public lands [ 12/1/2006] BLM 262 million acres USFWS NPS BIA BOR 94 million acres 85 million acres 56 million acres 9 million acres

3 GOAL Develop a Cost-Effective and Practical Methodology to Quantify Multiple and Simultaneous Outcomes of Conservation Practices, Programs, and Land Management Activities

4 THE WETLAND CONTINUUM RECHARGE From Euliss et HYDROLOGIC RELATION TO DISCHARGE GROUND WATER al HYDROLOGIC RELATION TO ATMOSPHERIC WATER DROUGHT DELUGE

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7 upland sub-zones shoulder-slope mid-slope Upland zone toe-slope wetland sub-zones overflow / spill elevation wet-meadow shallow-marsh Wetland zone deep-marsh shoulder-slope Upland zone Catchment Wetland zone mid-slope toe-slope wet-meadow shallow-marsh deep-marsh overflow / spill elevation Gleason et al. (in Review)

8 Service Floodwater Storage Biodiversity/Habitat Quality Erosion, Sedimentation and nutrient loading potential Carbon Sequestration Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Measure Estimate of water storage potential Floristic quality, taxon richness, habitat suitability Sedimentation and nutrient loading for wetlands in cropland, restored grassland and native prairie Estimates of soil and wetland vegetation carbon stocks Comparison of rates of reduction greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands in cropland, restored grassland and native prairie

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10 Because wetlands are intricately linked with their upland catchments It allows us to consider temporal wetland phases as ecosystem frames and to use our knowledge of land-use influences to make wall-to-wall landscape assessments and predictions

11 THE WETLAND CONTINUUM RECHARGE From Euliss et HYDROLOGIC RELATION TO DISCHARGE GROUND WATER al HYDROLOGIC RELATION TO ATMOSPHERIC WATER DROUGHT DELUGE

12 Cottonwood Lake Study Area Wetland P

13 Breeding Bird Surveys Blue-winged Teal American Coot Marsh Wren

14 Carbon Sequestration Service Highly Altered Relatively Unaltered Condition Gradient MLRA Cropland (OC Mg/ha) Restored (OC Mg/ha) Native (OC Mg/ha) 102A 48.1? ? C 50.9? 54.9

15 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration

16 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

17 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

18 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

19 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

20 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Wetland Frames Model Parameters Model Parameters Landscape A: Year 1 Landscape B: Plus CRP

21 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

22 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

23 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

24 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

25 Impacts of CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 100 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

26 Impacts of Climate Change on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration

27 Impacts of Climate Change on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

28 Impacts of Climate Change on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 100 Landscape A: Landscape B: Plus CRP

29 Two Possible Solutions to Offset the Effects of Climate Change

30 1. Restore Wetlands 2. Expand CRP

31 Impacts of Targeted CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 1 Landscape A: Landscape B: 7 Wetlands Plus More CRP

32 Impacts of Targeted CRP on Bird A and Carbon Sequestration Climate Regime Model Parameters Wetland Frames Year 100 Landscape A: Landscape B: 7 Wetlands Plus More CRP

33 Comparison of Measured and Predicted Biomass Using Regression Trees and Landsat Data Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations Actual Average Biomass (g/0.25m 2 ) y = x R 2 = Predicted AVERAGE of 3 models MSAVI, Treat2, GNDVI, Moist Treat2, GNDVI, LAI, Moist, GEMI, NDVI, B2,3,4 Treat2, GNDVI, LAI, Moist, GEMI, % water, NDVI observations 1:1 line Linear (observations) Variable Description Formula Treat2 Crop/Grass na GNDVI Green NDVI TM (4-2) / (4 + 2) LAI Specific Leaf Area Index TM (4) / (3 + 7) Moist Moisture Index TM (4-5) / ( 4 + 5) NDVI Norm alized Difference Vegetation Index TM (4-3) / (4 + 3) MSAVI Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 1/2 (2 TM4 + 1 sqrt(((2 TM4 + 1) - 8(TM4 - TM3)))) GEMI n * ( * n) - (TM ) / (1 - TM3), where n = (2 (TM4 2 - TM3 2 ) + 1/5 TM TM3) / (TM4 + TM ) % water Percent W ater regression tree sub-pixel estim ate B2 Blue band na B3 Red band na B4 Near Infra-red na

34 Predicted Biomass Confidence of Predicted Biomass Biomass (g/0.25m 2 ) >168 water Coefficient of Variation >1.5 water

35 2006 National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer

36 Cottonwood Lake Study Area Predicted Biomass Landsat TM (July 9, 2004, b5,b4,b3) Biomass (g/0.25m 2 ) >168 water

37 THE WETLAND CONTINUUM RECHARGE From Euliss et HYDROLOGIC RELATION TO DISCHARGE GROUND WATER al HYDROLOGIC RELATION TO ATMOSPHERIC WATER DROUGHT DELUGE

38 Percent Water Methods Develop Training Data and Model for Percent Water (30m) 100 Evaluation on training data (1091 cases): Percent Water Mean and Standard Error Landsat 7 - July 9, 2004 Multiple R Landsat 7 Path 31 Row 27 July 9, 2004 Regression Statistics R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations Predicted (%) Mean 1:1 line Landsat 5 Path 31 Row 27 May 12, 2003 Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Actual (%) Standard Error Observations

39 Using Landsat to Classify Wetland Hydrologic Function: Preliminary Results Recharge Wetland Flow-Through Wetland P9 P9 P3 P3 P2 P2 P4 P4 P5 P5 Open Discharge Wetland Closed Discharge Wetland High Elevation: 598 P8 P8 T2 T2 T1 T1 P1 T3 T3 P6 T7 T7 T6 T6 T5 T5 T8 T8 T9 T9 Low Elevation: 492 P7 P7

40 Using Landsat to Classify Wetland Hydrologic Function: Preliminary Results P11 CLSA Recharge Flow-Through Open Discharge Closed Discharge High : 598 Low : 492

41 Inter-Annual Climate Variability May 1992 Brown County, SD: Landsat-5, mid-ir band

42 May 1994

43 May 1997

44 Hydrologic Landscapes Map

45 North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes Project A spatially balanced array of 13,215 sample sites Canada 6,183 USA 5,813 Mexico 1,216

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47 Aquatic Systems Continuum (Tom Winter) HUMANS CARBON SEQUESTRATION BIRDS MAMMALS (except humans) FISH AMPHIBIANS AND REPTILES FISH INVERTEBRATES Biotic Interactions (Hanson et al. 2005) PLANTS Geochemical Landscape (Goldhaber, personal communication) Hydrologic Relation to Atmospheric Water (Euliss et al. 2004) WATER CHEMISTRY WATER LANDFORM GEOLOGIC SETTING Hydrologic Landscape (Winter 2001) Hydrologic Relation to Ground Water (Euliss et al. 2004)