The End of Oil? Dan Chiras, Ph.D. Sustainable Futures Society

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1 The End of Oil? Dan Chiras, Ph.D. Sustainable Futures Society

2 Are We Running Out of Oil? U.S. Oil production peaked in 1971 Since then, U.S. oil production has been falling

3 Are We Running Out of Oil? U.S. ultimate production = 200 billion barrels To date, we ve consumed 180 billion barrels of domestic oil -- all but 20 billion barrels

4 We have 20 billion barrels of oil left within our control!

5 Are We Running Out of Oil? U.S. consumes 7 billion barrels per year U.S. supplies represent about 3 years of our consumption

6 Are We Running Out of Oil? Yes -- we are running out of oil in the U.S. Fortunately, we have foreign oil to supply our needs We import about 60% of our oil

7 What s the prospect for Global Oil and Us? Do we have enough oil globally to continue on our economic path?

8 Published Estimates 3.5 Ultimate recovery Tb Average of 65 estimates is 1.93 Tb Our estimate is 1.85 Tb (trillion barrels)

9 Oil Facts ASPO mean ultimate production equal to 1,930 billion barrels Ultimate production = 1800 and 2200 billion barrels of oil To date, we ve consumed 940 billion barrels of oil, about half of the global ultimate production

10 Oil Facts It appears as if we have plenty of oil

11 Oil Facts Appearances can be deceiving even though we have lots of oil, we re rapidly consuming remaining reserves

12 Oil Facts Oil will be around for a long time but it is not when we run out that is as important as when global oil production peaks

13 When will global oil production peak? Most experts predict a peak between 2004 and 2010 based on current consumption, known oil supplies and discoveries

14 Consider These Oil Facts Globally, we consume 22 billion barrels of oil a year Yet we discover only 4 billion barrels of oil a year

15 By Tapping into previous discoveries Gb Past Discovery Future Discovery Production Past discovery by ExxonMobil

16 Peak Discovery 1964 World - Regular Oil Ultimate : 1850 Gb To-date 2004: 940 Gb Discoveries, Gb/a Peak Discovery High Prices Curb Demand Production, Gb/a

17 Simple plumbing- draining the tanks Surprise Filling at 4/yr 150 Yet-to-Find? 920 Produced 1700 DISCOVERED 780 Remaining Emptying at 22/yr One in - five out Billion barrels

18 What matters is Peak It confounds economic theory & changes the World Peak oil production marks a historical discontinuity when growth turns to decline

19 When oil production peaks *Prices rise *Stimulate search for more oil *Barring new finds, inflation and recession follow

20 Oil companies haven t made a major oil discovery since the late 1970s all of the really large fields were discovered prior to 1970

21 Real Discovery Trend Gb Past Discovery Future Discovery Production Past discovery by ExxonMobil

22 Where is it? Regular Oil ME.Other East W. Europe Africa L. America N. America Eurasia ME Gulf Produced Reserves Yet-to-Find

23 Share 70% 60% M.East USA Russia 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

24 But wait, there s more Natural gas production in the U.S. peaked in the early 1970s Remained constant for thirty years Projected to decline sharply in 2008

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28 Can we import natural gas to make up the difference? We currently import 15% of our natural gas from Canada but it is running out, too We also import 2% in tankers, compressed, liquefied natural gas Not geared up to accept more via tankers

29 Can we import natural gas to make up the difference? Not likely Even if we could, global natural gas production is expected to peak around 2015

30 All Oil & Gas Production, Gboe/a Non-con Gas Gas NGLs Polar Oil Deep Water Heavy Regular

31 The importance of Oil and Natural Gas Oil represents 39% of our nation s energy consumption Natural gas constitutes 23% of our nation s annual energy consumption

32 What do we do? Develop a nationwide energy conservation effort Develop new energy sources No new technologies are needed Need to implement and improve those that we already have

33 Develop New Energy Resources Wisely We don t just need more energy, we need to ensure services and products that oil and natural gas provide

34 Develop New Energy Resources Wisely Match new energy resources with our end needs

35 Develop New Energy Resources Wisely Develop resources to replace those we are losing Natural gas home heating, domestic hot water, industrial production, and electrical generation Oil gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, heating oil, asphalt, chemical feed stocks

36 Replacing Natural Gas Home heating with natural gas Insulation Passive solar retrofit Solar hot water space heating Heat pumps Wood stoves

37 Replacing Natural Gas Domestic hot water Solar water heaters Heat pumps Hydrogen

38 Replacing Natural Gas Electricity Photovoltaics Wind Solar thermal electric Geothermal Biomass Tides

39 Replacing Oil Transportation fuel Hybrid cars and trucks Biodiesel Electric cars for commuters Vegetable oil Ethanol

40 Individual actions Use energy efficiently in all aspects of our lives Retrofit your home Replace car with hybrid or, better yet, a diesel car that could run on biodiesel Pressure on state and local government

41 We don t lack the ideas, technology, or money but each day we wait will make it more difficult to achieve a smooth transition to a sustainable energy future

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46 The Sustainable Futures Society