Reliability Modeling: Demand, Outage, Intermittent Generation, & Import

Transcription

1 Reliability Modeling: Demand, Outage, Intermittent Generation, & Import Adequacy and Demand Curve Workgroup November 15, 2017 Draft for Discussion

2 Outline Reliability modeling updates Question to WG Members: Anything missed? Demand and on-site generation outages AESO Report back Outage assumptions Action to WG Members: Comment on summarized data Intertie AESO Report back 1

3 Reliability Modeling Updates

4 Reliability modeling updates Follow-up to the October 18 full day session on reliability modeling inputs for the new reliability tool Item Description Status Curtailable Load AIL vs System Load Retirement/ Repowering Discussion surrounded the amount of curtailable load Debate as to AIL vs System Load Discussion as to retirements and coal to gas conversions of existing coal fleet AESO will provide details as to the volume of curtailable load as work progresses AESO will use AIL for the reliability modeling AESO LTO reference case is the starting point for modeling, but in determining required UCAP addition and retirement decisions less relevant Feedback requested from WG for availability and outages for CTG 3

5 Reliability modeling updates Item Description Status Outages (Planned) Outages (Forced) Derates Discussion surrounded using historic information and how outage patterns may change post-ppa for many assets Discussion surrounded forced outage rates How seasonal derates will be included Will use estimated historic patterns initially Will be amenable to outage pattern suggestions post-ppa Will test a variety of planned outage schedules assuming no PPA incentives, resource availability, etc Will model based on estimated historic rates and external resources by asset type; expected that there will be alignment with eligibility Will model based on estimated historical rates, expected that there will be alignment with eligibility activities Analysis on-going 4

6 Reliability modeling updates Item Description Status Intertie Intermittent Generation Discussion surrounded modeling as a pseudo unit vs modeling interconnected markets Request was to assess intertie availability during tight supply conditions The AESO is investigating alternatives based on WG suggestions Complexity surrounding interconnected markets directed the AESO to model via pseudo units Once the resource adequacy tool is implemented, the AESO will investigate if this choice is feasible Will consider hydrological risks and assess forced and planned outage rates for inclusion in the modeling AESO intends to use correlated load, wind, solar and hydro profiles Analysis on-going 5

7 Reliability modeling updates Item Description Status Operating Reserves Load Methodology Discussion on the inclusion of operating reserve requirements Discussion of capturing weather and economic uncertainty in forecast, also alignment with the renewables profiles The AESO continues to assess The AESO has provided a document that outlines the details of how the AESO intends to conduct the load forecast Load and onsitegeneration correlation Also a discussion including more transparency in AESO processes Workgroup identified that there is a risk to overprocuring if load is not linked to outages modelled at sites where load and generation are linked AESO is conducting analysis to determine the magnitude of the issue and looking into how to integrate into resource adequacy modelling 6

8 Onsite Demand and Generation Relationship

9 Demand load and on-site generation outages The workgroup suggested that the AESO look into the relationship between on-site generation outages and onsite load The AESO has reviewed a 2015 sample of data from all sites with on-site generation Preliminary results show that only a few sites exhibit behaviour consistent with load and generation being completely dependent processes Other sites exhibit redundant generation, and show that multiple outages are avoided Indicates that at these sites the resource adequacy tool should not draw multiple outages 8

10 Example of linked load and generation Indicates that maximum load is never consumed at low levels of generation (For Illustrative Purpose Only) 9

11 Example of independent load and generation In this example, full load is consumed when generation is off line (For Illustrative Purpose Only) 10

12 Demand - load and on-site generation outages Next steps Determine total MW value of load linked to generation, and amount that is independent of generation Continue to monitor site behaviour Explore the resource adequacy tool to see how the aggregate load levels to the relevant generation outage identified sites can be linked if deemed necessary 11

13 Outage

14 Outages: Background Purpose for outage analysis To generate preliminary results for planned and forced outages To create an opportunity to assess whether the findings are representative and suitable to be used as inputs for reliability modelling Definitions & assumptions Full Outage: a continuous period of time where available capability (AC) is 0 Partial Outage: A continuous period of time where available capability (AC) is above 0 and significantly below maximum capability (MC) Only full outages were used in generating results for planned and forced outages 13

15 Outages: Methodology Estimated planned outages Available capability (AC) data was used to estimate maintenance cycles Historical patterns (from ) were identified Full outages (where AC=0) were examined AESO staff used keywords (eg. Planned, Maintenance, Turnaround, etc.) from the reason field to manually identify planned outages this can be subjective Generic types were assigned to units with similar historical maintenance patterns for cogeneration and simple cycle units Estimated forced outages Forced outages for coal, cogeneration, and biomass were estimated by taking the number of hours where AC=0 and subtracting the identified planned outage hours Example: For a specific period of time, unit 1 had 150 hours of full outage (AC=0) and 80 hours that were identified as planned outage hours this would result in an estimate of 70 hours for forced outages during the specified time period An average of 5 years ( ) was calculated Unit Derates (Partial Outages) AESO staff are currently working to identify unit derates 14

16 Outage Generation availability data Categorization of historical data has identified the following planned outage patterns: Technology Type/Units Maintenance Cycle Maintenance Length Coal Once every months (2-3 yrs) 4-5 weeks Cogeneration Type 1 Once every 12 months (1 yr) 1-2 weeks Type 2 Once every 6 months (0.5 yrs) 1-2 weeks Type 3 Once every 6 months (0.5 yrs) <1 week Major Outages Once every months (3-5 yrs) 2-4 weeks Combined Cycle* Once every 6-12 months (0.5-1 yrs) 1-2 weeks Simple Cycle* Type 1 Once every 12 months (1 yr) <1 week Type 2 Once every 24 months (2 yrs) <1 week Type 3 Once every 6 months (0.5 yrs) <1 week Biomass & Other Once every 6 months (0.5 yrs) 1 week *the nature of dispatchable gas generation leads to variation in the timelines for major outages - these timelines are based on operating hour intervals. 15

17 Outage Generation availability data Categorization of historical data has identified the following forced outage rates: Technology Type/Units Forced Outage Rate Coal 1-9% Cogeneration Type 1 2-3% Type % Type 3 1-2% Combined Cycle 8% for the first on-line year and 4% after* Simple Cycle 6% for the first on-line year and 3% after* Biomass & Other 1-2% *based on Black & Vetch s report: 16

18 Outage Generation availability data The AESO intends to make sure the cumulative availability factor will be in a reasonable range (For Illustrative Purpose Only) 17

19 Intertie

20 Intertie Intertie availability BC/MATL tie was not available approximately 40% of the time during Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA) hours from 2012 to Q When BC/MATL was available during EEA hours, nearly 90% of the import ATC was utilized All tie lines were available for import nearly 90% of the time during the top ten tight supply cushion hours in winter season from 2012 to 2016 BC/MATL tie was either not available or de-rated for import more than half of the time during the top ten tight supply cushion hours in summer season from 2012 to 2016 Once the resource adequacy tool is implemented, the AESO will investigate how to characterize the pseudo intertie unit 19

21 Capacity Market Load Forecast AESO proposal including methodology, inputs, and process has been circulated Seeking: Clarifying questions Feedback Additional considerations 20

22 Reliability Modelling Inputs & Methodology Recommendation Recommendation material will be shared on November 22 nd Seeking recommendation (acceptance) of methodology and inputs presented thus far at November 29 th meeting Validate that the AESO is using: Reasonable assumptions and methodologies Clear transparent process Industry standard practices Note areas of remaining concern 21

23 Thank you

24 Appendix Intertie data Imports during EEA hours (2012, 2014 & 2017) No EEA event in 2015 & 2016 Year Date HE Pool Price ($/MWh) System Import ATC (MW) Actual Import (MW) Jan $ Jan $ Jan $ Jan $ Jan $ Jul $ Jul $1, Jul $1, Jul $1, Jul $ Jul $ Nov $ Nov $ Nov $ Jul $ Jul $ Jul $ Jul $ Jul $ Jul $ Jul $ Jul $ Jul $ Jul $ Sep $ Sep $

25 Appendix Intertie data Imports during EEA hours (2013) Year Date HE Pool Price ($/MWh) System Import ATC (MW) Actual Import (MW) Year Date HE Pool Price ($/MWh) System Import ATC (MW) Actual Import (MW) May $ Jul $ May $ Jul $ May $ Jul $ May $ Jul $ May $ Jul $ May $ Jul $1, May $ Jul $ May $ Jul $ May $ Sep $ May $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Jun $ Sep $ Sep $ Sep $ Sep $ Sep $