IIASA AND ARCTIC RESEARCH.

Transcription

1 IIASA AND ARCTIC RESEARCH

2 What do we mean by Arctic? and what are the challenges? Arctic Circle (66 33'N) 1. Decision makers perspective 2. Economic perspective 3. Researcher perspective

3 Decision makers perspective Arctic strategies of Canada, US, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Russia Shared features Focus on strong position, credible defence, Economic growth Sustainability World leader in Arctic research Arctic Council Dialogue forum about the code of conduct Peaceful cooperation Role and nature of observations, membership criteria Disaster management NO discussion on security issues, NOR economic exploitation Arctic parliamentarians Legislation of the area role of the Arctic Council Role of indigenous people Geopolitical friction in the region Nature of global warming unclear Race of resources Different regulatory requirements > delays

4 Natural resources Oil and gas Undiscovered 90 bn barrels of oil, 1669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 44 bn barrels of natural gas liquids > 412 barrel s of oil and oil equivalent natural gas Mineral deposits Rare earth minerals, cobalt, lithium and molybdenum Zink, led, silver Sea Routes: Cargo ship activity increased by 36 percent and tanker activity 114 percent from 2008 till 2011 (AP) 20% of the worlds fish catch (primary product rise in the Russian zone) (E1) GDP per capita is very high

5 Substance Research Pattern holistic PEEX specific specific Association of Polar early career scientists (APECS) European Polar Board (EPB) Sustainable Development Working Group (SDWG) International Arctic Social Sciences Association (IASSA) WRCP World Climate Research Program Arctic Technology Centre (ARTEK) Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) CAS WWRP The Emergency Prevention, University of Arctic Preparedness and Response Working Group (EPPR) Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna Forum of Arctic Research Operators (CAFF) (FARO) Arctic Contaminants Action Program (ACAP) The Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Working Group (PAME) The Pacific Arctic Group (PAG) International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) WWRP PPP integrative Methodology

6 Conflicting interests? PREDICTION REQUIREMENTS NO DATA GROWTH SUSTAINABILITY LITTORAL STATES SHARED RESOURCES MAXIMIZED EXISTENCE COOPERATION AND PEACE

7 IIASA Arctic Futures Project IIASA holistic approach Integrating stakeholders, disciplines, issues, information, methods, globally For a holistic understanding for all stakeholders

8 Arctic Extremely complex system Complex system within the complex Earth system Interactions and feedbacks Sensitive issues involved Large number of actors Local, regional and global Sectoral studies Limited scope integrated assessments IIASA Specialized in complex systems Interdisciplinary Global systems expert Neutral, independent Involves all actors Global regional New type of framework: working network Holistic integrated approach

9 IIASA Arctic framework Global economy Investments VALUES Trade Regional economy Oil and gas PRESSURES ACTORS CO 2, CH 4, BC DRIVERS Temperature Albedo land cover, land use Melting

10 Global economy Investments Trade IIASA Arctic framework VALUES Culture Institutional Economic Security Trust Sustainability National Equity Common goods Transparency Cooperation Regional economy Oil and gas CO 2, CH 4, BC Temperature Albedo land cover, land use Melting PRESSURES DRIVERS ACTORS Resources, energy Population Economy Policy Society Technology Climate change, global change Researchers Politicians Businesses Organisations Media General public

11 Global economy Investments Trade IIASA Arctic framework VALUES Culture Institutional Economic Security Trust Sustainability National Equity Common goods Transparency Cooperation Regional economy Oil and gas CO 2, CH 4, BC Temperature Albedo land cover, land use Melting PRESSURES DRIVERS ACTORS Resources, energy Population Economy Policy Society Technology Climate change, global change Researchers Politicians Businesses Organisations Media General public Global < > Regional States? Impacts? Responses? Feedbacks?

12

13 Common Goods Civil security Global climate Beneficial demography Clean air Prudent urbanization Social welfare Internet Fish and game Communal land

14 Equitable Governance of Common Goods Maxim Malevich

15 Cooperation Maxim Malevich

16 Free Riding Maxim Malevich

17 IIASA Arctic Futures Project Concept IIASA programs IIASA NMOs Research programs, policy, businesses, organisations, media IIASA and AACA Arctic scenarios workshop May 2014, IIASA IIASA NMOs invited IIASA Arctic Futures Project stakeholder workshop autumn 2014 (tbc)