An Introduction of the BET model. Including End Use Technologies

Transcription

1 An Introduction of the BET model An Integrated Assessment Model Including End Use Technologies Hiromi Yamamoto Masahiro Sugiyama Junichi Tsutsui Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo 2013/07/30 32 nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Anchorage 1

2 Background An IAM (integrated assessment model), which evaluates interactions ti bt between energy, the economy, and the environment, is a tool to guide policy discussions for long term, globalsustainable development (Weyant 1999). Recently, advanced end use technologies have received increasing attention asa a key component of optionsfor climate change mitigation (Kyle et al. 2011). Advanced electric technologies include heat pump water heaters and EVs. A combination of low carbon power generation (such as renewables, thermalpower withccs CCS, andnuclear) nuclear) and advanced electric end use technologies are a promising solution for drastic GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction. 2

3 Objectives To develop an IAM (integrated assessment model) based on a general equilibrium technique (Ramsey s optimal growth theory) and including advanced end use technologies such as heat pump water heater and electric vehicles. Usingthe model, to analyze the effects of the advanced end use technologies. We conduct on off analyses of the advanced end use technologies and evaluate the importance of the advanced end use technologies. 3

4 BET model Basic Energy Economy Environment and Enduse Technology Model (BET). A MERGE RICE type global model hard linked with enduse technologies like MARKAL MACRO. The economic module is an one sector CES (constant elasticity substitution) type production function. The energy module is a bottom up type model that describes vintage of energy facilities and electric load curves. The primary energy includes coal, oil, natural gas, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and backstop. World 13 regions; Simulation period: 2010 to 2230 with 10 year intervals; an NLP model. 4

5 Figure The model structure Next term Energy Model incl. energy serv. Non Energy Model Labor Capital Energy Serv. Ene. Cost. CO2 Other GHG Prod. Func. Total prod. Income identity Expend. Damage Climate Model Temperature Damage Model Investment Consumption Net export Utilitiy function Sum of Util. Maximization 5

6 Sector Sub-sector Electricity Solid fuel Liquid fuel Gaseous fuel High-temp. heating Electric heating / Inductive Solid boiler Liquid boiler Gas boiler heating Table Energy Electric heating Low-temp. heating Industry / Heat pump Services Other electricity Electricity N/A N/A N/A Other solid fuel N/A Solid fuel N/A N/A In the Other liquid fuel N/A N/A Liquid fuel N/A model Solid boiler Liquid boiler Gas boiler Other gaseous fuel N/A N/A N/A Gaseous fuel Lighting Electricity N/A Oil lamp N/A Space cooling Ele. air con. N/A N/A N/A Cooking Ele. cooker Solid cooker Liquid cooker Gas cooker Commercial Electric heating Hot water N/A / Heat pump Liquid Gas Space heating Ele. Heat pump Solid stove Liquid id stove Gas stove Other Electricity N/A N/A N/A Lighting Electricity N/A Oil lamp N/A Space cooling Ele. air con. N/A N/A N/A Electric heating Hot water Solid Household / Heat pump Liquid Gas Cooking Ele. cooker Solid cooker Liquid cooker Gas cooker Space heating Ele. Heat pump Solid stove Liquid stove Gas stove Other Electricity N/A N/A N/A Conv. vehicle Road freight N/A N/A / Hybrid N/A Transportation vehicle Road passenger Electric vehicle Conv. vehicle N/A N/A Railroad Electricity N/A Liquid N/A Aviation and shipping N/A N/A Liquid N/A 6

7 olidfueliquidelaseousfuelectriciregions and Energy systems Primary Energy Coal Conversion Coal-fired power Secondary energy Direct use SCoal Syn-oil production Solid biomass Net export BET 13 regions Region name Regio n3 letter USA usa USA Japan japan JPN Canada, Australia, and canz CAZ New Zealand Other Eurasia oeurasia OEA Oil Natural gas Russia russia RUS Biomass China incl. Hong Kong china CHA India india IND Middle East & N. Africa nafrica MNA Brazil brazil BRA ASEAN & Korea aseank ASK Other Latin America olatam OLA Sub-Sahara Africa safrica SSA Oil-fired power Syn-oil LDirect use Oil unet export Liquid biomass Gas-fired power Direct use Net export Pre-treatment p Natural gas Gaseous biomass GEy(gaseous) tbackstop Solid fuel prod. Liquid fuel prod. Gaseous fuel prod. Electricity Hydro, wind, PV, and Hd Hydro, wind, idpv, and Backstop (gaseous) Direct use Nuclear Nuclear power geothermal geothermal power Backstop (electricity) Direct use 7 feurope (EU27+3)europe EUR lbiomasspower

8 Formulation of production function: rho kpvs rho YN t,r aconst t,r KN ln t,r 1 kpvs i bconst i,t,r Patty Clay type function. YN: (patty) production; Y t = (1 ζ) Y t 1 + YN t ; ζ is a deplation rate. KN: (patty) capital, ln: (patty) )lb labor. DN: Energy services; DN = f(e). Income identity: Y EC C t,r t,r I t,r DN EC is the sum of energy systems cost including enduse technologies. Objective function: U t, r df r log C max t, r t, r θ: Negishi weight, df: discount rate.. rho i,t,r 1 rho

9 Basic performance of BET population A1 B1 A2 B BET GDP TPES GDP (Trillio on 1990USD) A1B AIM 1500 B1 IMAGE A2 ASF B2 MESSAGE 1000 BET 目視 500 A1B AIM B1 IMAGE A2 ASF B2 MESSAGE BET

10 GDP losses (Base case =0%) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% GDP losses (compared to Unconstrained ON) GHG accumulation targets ppm-OFF 550ppm-ON 450ppm-ON 450ppm-OFF Off: Advanced End use Techs Are Off; On: Advanced End use Techs Are On. 10

11 100% 80% Conv. Demand decrease freight 60% 40% 20% 0% Conv. passenger 100% % 60% 40% 20% 0% Conv. freight Fig Energy services in vehicle services, upper: 450 off Lower: 450 on Demand decrease Hybrid freight Conv. passenger EV passenger

12 Conclusions Using the BET model, we have conducted simulations and obtained the following results. (1) Turning off the advanced end use technologies results in GDP losses. Such losses become larger with a more stringent climate policy. The advanced end use technologies are a way to contain GDP loss when the climate target is stringent. (2) Electricity demand is relatively stable, but non electricity demand decreases as the GHG constraints become more stringent. This is because electricity can be supplied using various low carbon options such as renewables, nuclear, and thermal power with CCS. (3) Electrification rates based on energy services are high under stringent GHG constraints. The combination of electrification and advanced electric end use technologies is a powerful method to achieve strict GHG constraints. 12