THE ENERGY PILLARS DIAGRAM An Effective Communication Tool For Biophysical Economists?

Transcription

1 THE ENERGY PILLARS DIAGRAM An Effective Communication Tool For Biophysical Economists? John Day, Christopher D Elia, Charles A.S. Hall, Adrian Wiegman, Jeff Rutherford, Robert Lane College of the Coast and Environment, Louisiana State auniversity Environmental Science and Forestry, SUNY, Syracuse

2 Outline Projections for the Second Half of the Fossil Fuel Age The Climate-Energy Impasse Energy Pillars Diagram Renewables to the Rescue? A Long-Term View of Energy and the Economy

3 Production (Gboe/year) Can renewables production catch up to a mid century peak in fossil fuels? 800 Growth Before 2015 Peak 2015 to 2050 Decline Beyond Range of Estimates World Fossil Fuel Produc on (EJ) Historical Produc on Maggio & Cacciola 2012 (Int.) Dale et al Olivares & Poy 2014 Mohr et al (B.G.) Mohr et al (High) Energy Watch Group Future investment & growth in wind & solar is uncertain Oil historical Year Oil forecast (Utot=2,600 Gb) Coal historical Coal forecast (Utot = ~4,760 Gboe) Natural gas historical Natural gas forecast (Utot= ~2,270 Gboe) Wind & Solar Historical Fossil Fuel Historical Fossil Fuel forecast Sources: Original Graph from Maggio & Cacciola 2012, Wind and Solar added using BP data, British Petroleum, 2014

4 The Energy-Climate Quandary Roughly 4/5ths of remaining fossil fuel reserves (and the overwelming majority of resources) must remain in the ground in order to reach 2 degree limit using Anderson s (2015) estimate of 650 Gt of CO2 emissions. (Source: McGlade 2015 Nature) 650 Gt

5 Cumulative Carbon Emissions From Fossil Fuel Combustion (Gt CO 2 eq) CO2 Emission Trajectories From 2000 Mohr et al Exceeded b/w Exceeded b/w Gt Threshold (IPCC) 650 Gt Threshold (Anderson) Scenarios of future fossil fuel production from Mohr et al. 2015: Low URR Scenario Best Guess URR Scenario High URR Scenario

6 Coal (28%) Crude Oil (32%) Nat. Gas (21%) Day et al. In Prep The Global Economy Supported by Energy Pillars Intermittent Solar Energy Flow (SEF) Constant Energy Flow ** From Fossil Fuels Biomass Stocks Yrs of SEF Earth s Biophysical System Fossil Fuel Stocks Yrs of SEF Biomass (10%) Hydro (2%) Nuclear (5%) New Renew. (1%) Fossil Fuel (83%) Source: Energy data from IEA 2015

7 Coal (28%) Crude Oil (32%) Nat Gas (21%) Take away renewable energy sources and fossil fuels will support the modern economy with little noticeable changes The Human Economy Diffuse Renewable Solar Flows Dense Finite Energy Stocks Energy data from IEA 2013 Earth s Biophysical System

8 Take away fossil fuels and the economic system would be forced to undergo massive upheaval. Say Goodbye to Hamburger Helper, and 25 Cent Chicken Wings! Diffuse Renewable Solar Flows Energy data from IEA 2013 Earth s Biophysical System

9 Without fossil fuels the economy must shrink, falling back down to earth. The Devil is In the Details: Who, When, and How and at What Level? Diffuse Renewable Solar Flows The Human Economy Energy data from IEA 2013 Earth s Biophysical System

10 Why aren t we (at BPE 2016) talking about renewables? Can new renewables replace fossil fuels for the current scale of the economy? Give these factors: Intermittency Low energy density Storage, substitutability Slow market penetration Low EROI Infrastructure needs Material constraints Probably not, but have these been adequately investigated (Maybe only by Dale et al. 2012)?

11 EROI of Society s Energy Options EROI of Fossil Fuel Replacements? The Range of EROI Reported for Societies Energy Options 100 Fossil Fuels Biomass Nuclear Hydro NewRenew Range of Reported EROI Mean Median :1 Growth Threshold (Fizaine & Court 2016, Hall et al. 2009) Adapted from: Carbajales-Dale et al Solar PV EROI extended = 0.8 in Germany and Switzerland (Ferroni & Hopkirk 2016) ~3:1 over 25 years with storage (Weisbach et al. 2013, Palmer 2014) It must be asked weather or not, renewables could exist without Fossil Fuels.

12 Renewables Replace 100% of Electricity Produced by Fossil Fuels: Difficult but Conceivable Wind 1,600 Nuclear 28,000 Hydro 13,000 Solar 990 Geothermal 2,800 Electricity and Heat 210,000 Residential 87,000 Rejected Energy 290,000 Natural Gas 150,000 Residential 30,000 Coal 190,000 Industrial 140,000 Energy Services 210,000 Biomass 54,000 Non Energy 34,000 Petroleum 180,000 Transport 100,000 Adapted from: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (2014) Energy Flow Charts Data from: International Energy Agency (2013) World Primary Energy Use 2011 Renewables Replace 100% of Fossil Fuel Energy Uses: Extremely Difficult and Perhaps Impossible

13 What Does a Renewable Economy Look Like? Sail boats and fishermen in 17 th century Holland Human s of all ages doing manual Labor for sustenance Slow moving vessels Limited range of transport How much can new renewables change make the hard work like food production easier? A 2 Horse Power Plow Photo by: Ralf Roletschek

14 A Modern Day Renewable Economy, Ghana (68% renewables, mostly biomass):

15 Imported oil is Germany s single largest contribution to energy supply.

16 Agrarian Society: %Workers in 1 o Econ ~90% EROI SOC <5:1 0 cities > 1 million Pop < 0.5 billion Industrial Society: The Great Acceleration %Workers in 1 o Econ <5% EROI SOC ~30:1 500 cities > 1 million Pop = 7.4 billion Colonialism Naval Empire 2 nd Law Steam Power Jevon s Paradox Malthus Assembly Lines Key: Energy Source Intellectual Paradigm Net Energy Keystones Adapted from Fizaine and Court 2016

17 Can society hit a sweet spot or will it fall off the net energy cliff? Human Development Index verses EROI of Society Aim Here Source: Adapted from Lambert et al (2014)

18 World Primary Energy Use (EJ) Societal EROI (Gross/(Gross-Net)) World Primary Energy Use (EJ) Societal EROI (Gross/(Gross-Net)) Meeting climate goals while providing sufficient per capita energy for a comfortable life will likely require society to dip below the magic 10:1 EROI threshold. C) SET 2.0 Output BAU: World Energy Mix (left) Societal EROI (right), Adapted from Sgouridis et al. (2016) Net Energy D) SET 2.0 Output 990Gt: World Energy Mix (left) Societal EROI (right), Adapted from Sgouridis et al. (2016) Net Energy

19 Can society hit a sweet spot or will it fall off the net energy cliff? Human Development Index verses EROI of Society SET 2.0 Projections: On Avg. Society is Teetering on the Edge Source: Adapted from Lambert et al (2014)

20 The energy transition will put us somewhere between these two paradigms Adapted from Lambert et al :1 12:1 10:1 8:1 5:1 3:1 1.2:1 1.1:1

21 Summary Fossil Fuel Use Will Peak Before Mid Century EROI is Decreasing and Likely Will Continue Renewables Cannot Replace Fossil Fuels for the Current Economy (Intermittency, low energy density, storage, substitutability, slow market penetration, low EROI, infrastructure needs, material constraints) Meeting Climate Goals Will Cause Profound Changes in Society and the Economy Modern Industrial Society and Economy are Inherently Unsustainable

22 a. Central Price Scenario Moderate Transition b. Low Price Scenario - Successful Climate Policy Rapid Transition c. High Price Scenario - Unsuccessful Climate Policy Slow Transition 1. Seasonal & Intermittant Solar Flux 2. Total and Discretionary Portion of GDP 3. Fossil Fuel (or Oil) Supply 4. Price of Energy $ EJ 5. Biophysical Systems Provide Food and Assimilate Wastes 6. WASP Wind and Solar Power Global Biophysical Model of Energy Markets with Hypotheses for future of the energy transition