The role of bioenergy in the future UK energy system

Transcription

1 The role of bioenergy in the future UK energy system Dr Geraldine Newton-Cross, Energy Technologies Institute IMechE 19 th November Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.

2 The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) The Energy Technologies Institute is a public-private partnership between global industries and UK Government The UK is facing increasing energy demands and stringent GHG emission targets out to 2050 (> 500 MtCO 2 e to 105 MtCO 2 e) This will require significant change to our energy system ETI members ETI was set up to identify and accelerate the development and demonstration of an integrated set of low carbon technologies to deliver this step change ETI programme associate Part of a robust and affordable future energy system in the UK

3 ETI Technology Programmes We commission three types of projects: More than 220 million projects on contract

4 The UK Energy Challenge million people 77 million people 24 million cars 40 million cars 24 million domestic dwellings 80% still in use in 2050, growing to 38 million houses Over 90GW generation capacity (1MW to 3.9GW) Over 200 significant power stations. average age > 20 years old 50% of power generation capacity held in 30 plants. average age 30 years old Demand is growing, assets are ageing, prices are rising irrespective of the UK s GHG emission reduction targets Need to design a future UK energy system which is sustainable, affordable and secure

5 ETI s ESME model of the UK energy system A national energy system design tool with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to understand system engineering challenges. A least-cost optimisation, policy neutral tool Can model pathway and supply chain constraints out to 2050 Probabilistic treatment of key uncertainties enables less mature technologies to be assessed Example questions ESME would be used to inform. What might be no regret technology choices and pathways to 2050? What is the total system cost of meeting the energy and emission targets? Where should new generating capacity optimally be located? What are the opportunity costs of individual technologies or sectors (e.g. bioenergy)?

6 The role of bioenergy in the UK energy system Lowest cost decarbonisation pathways identified: power, buildings, industry Negative emissions from bioenergy with CCS offsets the need for expensive interventions elsewhere in the energy system: Aviation and shipping Transport (passenger vehicles)

7 Getting the UK energy system to 2050 ESME enables us to assess the likely cost of different future UK energy systems, and the opportunity costs of not pursuing particular pathways: Future UK energy system cost > 200 billion between now and 2050 Mix of biomass with CCS, gas-fired CCS, hydrogen turbines, nuclear, hybrid vehicles and liquid transport fuels, offshore renewables and retrofitting Biomass used to generate hydrogen, power, heat, transport fuels and negative emissions It is likely to be very hard to deliver an affordable low carbon energy system without Bioenergy or CCS

8 The benefits of bioenergy MtCO 2 e negative emissions with CCS 1 Could deliver 10-12% UK energy by ,3 Flexibility in terms of end vectors Scalability of application Multiple feedstocks potential supply chain benefits Energy security if domestically sourced Sector could generate up to 50,000 jobs by Wider UK growth opportunities of 19 billion 5 1 ESME analysis 2 UK Bioenergy Strategy 3 CCC Bioenergy Review 4 NNFCC - UK Jobs in the Bioenergy Sector by LCICG BioTINA

9 Realising the benefits How much of the theoretical negative emissions could be realised through bioenergy deployment in the UK? What would be the best ways to use this bioenergy in the future UK energy system? What are the right combinations of feedstock, pre-processing, and conversion technologies? Critical issues: Availability / sustainability of UK biomass production The use of bioenergy in conjunction with CCS Critical issues: Interaction of bioenergy with the rest of the UK energy system Technology & infrastructure roll out across all sectors Critical issues: System-level assessment and demonstration Cost and performance improvements Are the right policy and regulatory mechanisms in place and are there public acceptability issues that need addressing? BwCCS Waste Gasification Energy from Waste

10 The Ecosystem Land Use Modelling (ELUM) Project Problem definition: Uncertainty of direct land use change emissions associated with biomass production (in UK) Project commissioned: Quantify the level of variability associated with soil carbon and GHG impacts of biomass production in the UK: - variability across different land use transitions - variability due to locational aspects (soil type; yield; climate) - influence of management regimes (e.g. fertiliser, tillage) Unique measured and modelled approach taken, with 2.5 years fieldwork and development of process and meta-models Ability to assess likelihood of transitions being low risk Project status: Concluding now reviewing and contextualising findings

11 The Bioenergy Value Chain Modelling (BVCM) Project Problem definition: What is the most effective way of delivering a particular bioenergy outcome in the UK, taking into account the available biomass resources, the geography of the UK, time, technology options and logistics networks? Project commissioned: Development of a comprehensive and flexible toolkit for whole system biomass value chain analysis and optimisation - Pathways optimised based on: minimum cost, minimum GHG emissions, maximum energy, maximum profit or a combination - 93 Resources and 69 distinct Technologies at different scales and with multiple feedstocks - UK production factors (land constraints; yields); imports; logistics cells (50km x 50km); 5 decades and 4 seasons Project status: ETI undertaken significant testing, modelling and further development. Insights being drawn - paper due in new year.

12 Problem definition: Project commissioned: The Waste Gasification Project How much energy could be generated from waste and which technologies are best? Energy from Waste Phase 1 Waste Gasification Phase 2 Waste Gasification Waste to energy could generate 4-6% of UK electricity by 2050 Gasification technology most flexible, scalable, efficient and affordable Town scale key opportunity (50, ,000 tonnes p.a.) Integrated system accounting for all pre-processing, parasitic loads, system wastes Net electrical efficiency of > 25% Availability of > 80% Designs tested: laboratory and technoeconomic modelling, based on 5-20MWe scales and 5 different feedstocks Full system demonstration plant built, operated and run commercially Testing on key feedstocks Syngas test stream Project status: Phase 1 successfully completed. Phase 2 contracts being negotiated and announced shortly

13 Integration of ETI Bioenergy projects and other related ETI projects ELUM - UK biomass production pathways delivering genuine carbon savings Enabling UK Biomass - Benchmarking of energy crop competitiveness and identifying potential business models Characterisation of UK Feedstocks - Linking properties to provenance; proximate and ultimate analysis Techno-economic assessment of preprocessing activities - When it does / does not pay to pre-treat biomass Energy from Waste - Waste arisings, composition and technology pathways - Energy demands - Negative emission requirements - Specific vector demands Waste Gasification - Demonstration of integrated gasification gas clean-up and power systems - Available UK biomass - Technology cost and performance trajectories SSH Programme - Future district heating strategies for the UK BwCCS - Biomass to Power with CCS technology development: costs, barriers, opportunities CCS Programme - Piping infrastructure - CO 2 storage - H 2 storage ESD Programme - Gas vectors: costs and engineering issues to use/move CO 2, H 2, syngas and Bio-SNG Transport Programme - Future requirements for alternative biofuels for LDVs and HDVs

14 Summary Genuine carbon savings / Negative emissions Best Use (vectors) Optimal value chain combos Policy, regulatory / other support Bioenergy has a pivotal role to play in delivering an affordable UK energy system transition out to 2050 The bioenergy landscape is complex, but we understand the key questions and challenges Our bioenergy project portfolio is addressing these key issues across the value chain by: making a critical contribution to the scientific understanding of sustainable bioenergy production in UK Feedstock and Preprocessing identifying the benefits of different value chain pathways, and assessing the market, policy and regulatory structures required to develop them accelerating the development and demonstration of key bioenergy technologies Integrated analysis of the full UK energy system needed

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