Interdependence, Resilience and Sustainability of Infrastructure Systems for Biofuel Development

Transcription

1 Interdependence, Resilience and Sustainability of Infrastructure Systems for Biofuel Development PI: Ximing Cai, Co-PIs/SPs: Yanfeng Ouyang, Madhu Khanna, Atul Jain, Gregory McIsaac, Steven Eckhoff, Imad Al-Qadi, Sivapalan Murugesu, Tze Ling Ng University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Stephen Gasteyer Michigan State University

2 Natural Resources Weather/ Climate Biofuel refinery Proximity Supply/ demand Biofuel crop production Irrigation Discharge Proximity Water supply Transportation Discharge Water/ waste water Environmental Criteria RESOURCE EFFICIENCY Natural Environment -Resources Energy Materials Engineering Criteria Proximity Human Inputs PERFORMACNE Cost effectiveness and recovery Infrastructure Minimization of residual Residual Products Services Socio-Economic Criteria Socioeconomic -Demand -Revenue Interdependencies of subsystems Input/output (e.g. biofuel production transportation refineries) Proximity (e.g. refineries & farms, refineries & water supply) Common environmental (e.g., climate, land, water quality etc.) and social factors (community support, institutional settings) Infrastructure resilience and sustainability The emerging bio-economy will increase the interdependencies among infrastructure systems and interactions among engineered infrastructures, social communities and the natural environment. Physical resilience vs. social resilience 3-D approach to assess infrastructure sustainability

3 System of Systems (a coupled human natural system) Traffic load Biofuel Shipment + Facility cost + Traffic load Biomass Production Yields Biofuel Economics Benefit/Cost Refinery Communities Environment Waste water Water supply Water Supply Water supply

4 Research activities and findings Biomass production: integrated biophysical economic modeling Social impacts Environmental impacts Infrastructure planning Integrated analysis on interdependence, sustainability and resilience

5 Energy ISAM-Land-Surface Model Hydrology Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling Calculate fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, energy, water, and the dynamical processes that alter these fluxes 18 Biome types 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution 30 minutes temporal scale Season-to-interannual variability (penology)

6 Average ( ) Miscanthus Yield (t/ha) With and Without Water Stress With Temp. & Water Stresses With Temp. & Without Water Stress Evapotranspiration (mm/yr) Fraction Yield Change Due to Water Stress

7 Economically viable supply of agricultural biomass and mix of cellulosic feedstocks at various biomass prices in % Higher Switchgrass Yield Price of Biomass ($/MT) Price of Biomass ($/MT) Biomass (MMT) Biomass (MMT) Corn Stover Wheat Straw Miscanthus Switchgrass Total Biomass 0.9 B metric dry tons of agricultural biomass can be produced but at $140 per dry metric ton; Relatively small contribution of switchgrass and wheat straw even if switchgrass yields were to increase by 50%

8 Regional Pattern and Mix of Feedstock Production at $50/MT Miscanthus Wheat Straw Switchgrass Corn Stover

9 Assessing social impact via community capitals framework A conceptual framework for understanding assets and interactions of assets within a systems setting

10 What ARE the Impacts of Biofuels? Biofuels are sited in more urban counties with Lower commute time Higher personal income Lower increase in median income Higher percent minority Higher educational attainment Higher petroleum use There are at least apparent natural capital effects Effects on air quality Possible effects on water Impacts of siting Include Increased farm employment Increased farm income Increased personal income Declining farm proprietors Increased petroleum use

11 Implications for Social Resiliency Biofuels DO have returns to individual financial capital as well as evidence in generation of employment at least in the farm sector It does not, however, change trends in declining numbers of farmers or use of petroleum Returns also have traditionally accrued to more urban counties closer to commodity agriculture and petroleum processing facilities. Continuation of demographic and agriculturalstructural and economic trends no returns fundamentally alter the system in most cases.

12 Environmental impact: Two case studies Sangamon River Basin Bloomington Sangamon & Kaskaskia The two basins are different in terms of: Climate Crop yields Urban areas Land cover St. Louis Springfield Kaskaskia River Basin

13 Sangamon Results Shallow Aquifer Subbasin 29: Downstream, 289 km 2 Shallow Aquifer Storage at End of Month (mm) Soy 150 Corn 100 Miscanthus Urban 50 CRP Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Soil moisture storage under five different land uses. Different location within the basin, but similar results.

14 Streamflow (m 3 /mo) 6 x SubBasin 29, 4th Order Stream SubBasin 29: Downstream (4th order stream) Corn Soy Miscanthus 1 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2.5 x 108 Streamflow (m 3 /mo) Corn Soy Miscanthus 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Streamflow at subbasin outlet for 1999 (top), 2003 (bottom)

15 Integrated Planning of Biofuel Supply Chain Networks and Multimodal Infrastructure Expansion Passengers O/D Facility Location Number/Location of Biorefineries Construction Cost Highway Network Shipment O/D Congestion Source Node Biorefinery Sink Node Transportation Plan Shipment Route Choice Travel Time/Delay Congestion Road Capacity Railroad Network Biofuel Flow Biomass Flow Biomass/Biofuel O/D Infrastructure Capacity Expansion Lane Addition/Railroad Expansion Infrastructure Cost 15

16 Scenarios of infrastructure planning 1. No transportation infrastructure expansion 2. Scenario 1 + highway expansion: 3. Scenario 2+ intermodal shipments 4. Scenario 3 + railroad expansion 5. Multimodal transportation and railroad expansion only 16

17 1. No infrastructure expansion Numerical Results 2. Scenario 1 + highway expansion: 3. Scenario 2+ intermodal shipments 4. Scenario 3 + railroad expansion 5. Multimodal transportation and railroad expansion only 17

18 Biofuel Supply Chain Design under Competitive Agricultural Land Use and Feedstock Market Equilibrium A new energy supply chain penetrates into the existing system Compete for feedstock supply Balance among facility costs, transportation costs, and market profits Existing Local Grain Markets Food Feed Supply chain design Facility location & capacity Supply procurement Product distribution 3... Farmer reaction Production level Supply allocation Farmers Bio-refineries New Biofuel Markets

19 Illinois Case Study 1) a benchmark scenario with no refinery built, where farmers only ship and sell corn to local markets; 2) a cooperative scenario, where the total supply chain profit is maximized; 3) a noncooperative scenario, where the farmers and the biofuel company maximize their own profits; 4) a hybrid scenario, where the biofuel company first builds refineries strategically based on the cooperative game solutions, but makes the pricing decisions in a noncooperative setting. Biofuel production generally increases the net social welfare Substantial impact on food market Cooperative scenario generates highest social welfare

20 Research activities and findings Biomass production: integrated biophysical economic modeling Social impacts Environmental impacts Infrastructure planning Integrated analysis on interdependence, sustainability and resilience

21 A generic mathematical framework to address interdependence, resiliency and sustainability: Recovery time Interdependency: Sustainability: Resiliency & Sustainability Conceptual Development The dependency of subsystem i on subsystem j is defined as the change in system i resulted from one unit change in subsystem j. The resiliency of an infrastructure system is its capability to get back to its operational boundary after being affected by disruptions. Measures of resiliency include functionality degradation, recovery time, recovery speed and adaptability. System sustainability is its long-term capability to use its limited resources effectively to maintain its functionality and to endure stresses. Nguyen, Cai and Ouyang (2011), Modeling Infrastructure Interdependencies, Resiliency and Sustainability

22 A Statistical Definition of Interdependence The interdependence between two systems is measured by the statistical correlation between representative variables from each of the systems (Rinaldi et al. 2001) 22 Correlation = -1 Correlation = -0.5 Correlation = 0 Correlation = 0.5 Correlation = 1 System 2 System 2 System 2 System 2 System 2 The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient is the covariance of the representative variables divided by the product of the standard deviations. Source: Rinaldi, S. M.; J. P. Peerenboom and T. K. Kelly (2001). Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. IEEE Control Systems Magazine, 21(6),

23 Description of Hypothetical Biofuel System Demand point Each plot of land is 1,000 ha Demand point Corn ethanol refinery Cellulosic ethanol refinery Demand point Demand point

24 Multiple Configurations of Hypothetical Biofuel System 24

25 Preliminary Results Reliability-Interdependence Vulnerability-Interdependence Monte Carlo simulations are carried out for different configurations of a hypothetical biofuel system to estimate the relationships between reliability and interdependence, and vulnerability and interdependence. The results have been normalized to remove the effects of mean and variance. 25

26 Optimization Model Overview WATER QUALITY LAND USE WATER QUANTITY MAX PROFIT TRANSPORT- ATION REFINERIES

27 Objective Function o To maximize the overall profitability of the system Constraints o Environmental resource and infrastructure constraints Decisions variables o o o o o Overview of Model Allocation of land to crops Refinery locations Refinery capacities Traffic flow capacities Water supply capacities

28 Scope of Model Sub-systems Transportation Refineries Land use Water quality Water supply Refinery types Corn ethanol Cellulosic ethanol Products Corn for food Corn for ethanol Soybeans for food Corn stover Miscanthus Switchgrass Ethanol Dried distillers grains Lignin Transportation Road Rail

29 Applications of the Integrated Model Sensitivity analysis to model parameters and assumptions Scenario analysis Analysis of various scenarios of water availability, possible locations of refineries, climate etc. In particular, scenarios on system failures for the Insights into how the failure of one sub system (or a part of it) might affect other subsystems. Policy analysis Strategic changes in water supply, transportation system and feedstock production Impact of environmental regulations, climate control policies and technology advances The need of the mix of knowledge, resources and social networks to enable social resiliency Bottlenecks and areas of possible investment/ expansion

30 Summary Work at both system level and subsystem level provides guidance to crop choice, price choice, refinery and shipment facility location and size, strategies for infrastructure design and management The interaction between environmental, social and engineering systems will lead to radically new technology in biomass production, biofuel refinery and shipment and associated infrastructure expansion Understanding of the dynamics of a system of systems will lead to paradigm shifts in the expansion of interdependent engineering infrastructures