EnergyTrend Market Intelligence, PERC Cell Situation and Forecast Report

Transcription

1 EnergyTrend Market Intelligence Service Jason Huang, Research Manager EnergyTrend Market Intelligence, PERC Cell Situation and Forecast Report Corrine Lin, Assistant Research Manager Kenny Ko, Analyst Celeste Tsai, Analyst Lucy Chen, Assistant Analyst Table of Contents Page CH1 PERC Cell Background 2 CH2 PERC Cell Production for Passivation Technology 8 CH3 PERC Cell Capacity Status and Market Share 13 CH4 PERC Cell Cell Capacity Development 20 CH5 PERC Cell Cell and Module Technology Roadmap 23 CH6 PERC Cell Top-10 Chinese PERC Cell Makers 32 CH7 PERC Cell Conclusion 34 EnergyTrend Special Report on PERC Cell Situation and Forecast. Analysis, opinions and recommendations contained herein are designed to help our gold members make informed decisions promptly based on the comprehensive collection of information and judgment. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of the information are not guaranteed. TrendForce makes no guarantee, representation of warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The information and analysis in the report constitute judgment as at the date of this report and are subject to change without prior notice. TrendForce is not liable for any incidental, consequential or indirect (including but not limited to damages for lost profits, business interruption and loss of information arising out of the use of delay of any information provided by TrendForce. All material presented in the report, unless specifically indicated, is under copyright to TrendForce. Gold members have the right to use the information in the report for internal use. This report or any portion hereof may not be sold, modified, copied, republished, reproduced, displayed, transmitted or distributed in any form without prior written consent from TrendForce.

2 CH1 PERC Cell - Background 1.1 Introduction Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell is generally referred to as PERC cell. The earliest concept originated from Professor Martin Green of the University of New South Wales in The conversion efficiency of 22.8% in a crystalline silicon solar cell was first revealed in Later, on the basis of the same cell structure, the world s highest conversion efficiency (at that time) of 24.7% was achieved in Technically, PERC is not an innovative cell technology. But ever since this design idea was first proposed, it has gone through 30 years of research and improvement. Finally, Bosch Solar Energy successfully launched PERC cells on the EU PVSEC exhibition in 2010 and later conducted an experimental test at the Fraunhofer Institute to confirm the conversion efficiency record of 19.6% in PERC cell technology has begun to enter the mass production stage. As manufacturers continually put effort into PERC development, both PERC technology and equipment have matured. Therefore, PERC cell should be the most important indicator for mainstream P-type high-efficiency cell, also a very important milestone in the solar industry. This report includes the production process/equipment of PERC cells, capacity status and developmental trend, market share, cell/module technological direction, and strategic plans for top-ten PERC cell makers, and so on. EnergyTrend observes the market pulse of PERC cells; collects timely technical/product information and provide professional analysis to help our clients to get firsthand information, allowing our clients to have more complete research and production plans for PV cells in the future. 2

3 1.2 PERC cell structure and feature Figure 1 is the structural diagram for the two major P-type crystalline silicon solar cells. Conventional cell is on the left hand later conducted an experimental test at the Fraunhofer Institute to confirm the conversion efficiency record of 19.6% in PERC cell technologyside and PERC cell is on the right. We can see that the front-side structure is almost identical for the two types of cells. The main difference between the two is at the back-side where PERC cell has three extra layers, in which, red areas represent back-side passivation layer, yellow areas is SiNx capping layer, and pink areas represent local back surface field (local BSF). These extra layers as well as conventional cell s BSF pink areas (BSF) are the major segmentation. Figure 1 Structural diagram of conventional and PERC cells The biggest difference between PERC and conventional cells lies in the existence of back-side passivation layer. There are many choices for passivation layer: the combination of silicon oxide/silicon nitride was often used in the earlier days, while alumina/silicon nitride is more suitable for mass production nowadays. A thorough explanation of this can be found in the later chapters. Another difference between the two is that PERC cell has an additional back-side passivation layer which completely covered its back-side, yet local BSF has been chosen for the cell to conduct photoelectric conversion under sunlight. This allows the forming of current passage in the pink areas, which is different from conventional cell s BSF. Because PERC cell s back-side passivation layer is usually thicker (>100nm), silicon wafer will not be burned during the high- 3

4 temperature sintering process. Therefore, an additional production process is needed to form local BSF: drill a hole to expose silicon and then go through aluminum paste printing and hightemperature sintering processes. More high-efficiency cells have been developed in the constant pursuit of higher photoelectric conversion efficiency. But in fact, the structural design of PERC technology is the simplest, which can be directly transformed from the existing cell production lines. In addition to that, it has been evaluated as the easiest way to achieve mass production owing to the lowest potential cost of construction and no technical patent issues. The largest advantage of PERC cells is that only two to four more production processes are required to be added onto the conventional cell production line to get the cell upgraded, just like the orange areas in figure 2. Also, PERC technology requires lower equipment capital investment. For 100MW PERC cell capacity, it will only cost US$ 3-5 million for upgrade. The price gap will depend on different equipment manufacturers or technologies chosen. The use of PERC cells in multi-si products will bring an increase of 0.5%-0.8% efficiency and 0.8%-1.0% for mono-si products. These have been confirmed by the actual mass production data. Theoretically, the result of PERC technology has something to do with wafer s minority carrier lifetime. Since the crystal quality and purity of mono-si cell itself is better than multi-si cell, mono- Si cell will have longer minority carrier lifetime in average. Consequently, mono-si PERC cell can give full play to its passivation effect and react on efficiency, leading to a more effective investment and higher popularity for mono-si PERC cells. (ARC : anti-reflection coating, BS : back-side, FS : front-side, LIR : light-induced regeneration) Figure 2 Flow chart of PERC cell production process 4

5 1.3 Passivation layer The role of passivation layer The main purpose of the passivation procedure in solar cells is to reduce the impact of defects in silicon crystal itself by suppressing the recombination of the charge carriers to ensure cell s best efficiency performance. Silicon nitride is the most commonly used material for conventional cell s front-side passivation layer. It has excellent anti-reflection and can provide good field passivation effect. For conventional cell s back-side, aluminum is widely used with silicon during the sintering process to form aluminum-silicon alloys (positively charged region), which acts as conventional cell s BSF. This concept imitates cell s front-side silicon nitride field passivation effect, but neglects cell s back-side chemical passivation feature. As a result, the core concept of PERC technology is to enhance conventional cell s back-side passivation effect through the support from additional production processes to increase cell s conversion efficiency Back-side passivation layer material Chemical vapor deposition method is used to produce hydrogenated silicon nitride layers (SiNx:H), which act as silicon solar cell s front-side anti-reflective film. It s because silicon nitride has relatively suitable refractive index properties, and what s more important is that silicon nitride itself has excellent passivation effect. Silicon nitride can not only saturate surface dangling bonds and reduce interface states, but also effectively reduce the minority carrier concentration of the front-side n-layer silicon through its positive charge to lower the surface recombination rate. Silicon nitride has become the must passivation structure for silicon solar cell s front-side. But can it be used at the back-side as well? The answer is no. One important mechanism of silicon nitride passivation is the use of positive charge to reduce the minority carrier concentration of front-side n-layer area. Yet, the positive charge at the back-side of the P-type cell is likely to induce an n-layer inversion layer at the back-side, leading to the loss of current and decrease in voltage and fill factor (FF). Therefore, it s very important to find the material that s suitable for cell s backside passivation layer. After a long period of development, the chemical feature of aluminum oxide 5

6 (AlOx) has started to earn recognition from everyone, in which everyone thinks it has the best passivation effect and also acts as a dielectric material that can be put into mass production. The following table 1 is a feature comparison for commonly used dielectric materials. Dielectric Layer AlOx Passivation Market Wafer Type Process System Stability Cost Quality Share ALD In-line / Mono/Multi APCVD Batch PECVD SiONx Mono/Multi PECVD Batch SiOx Mono Thermal Tube Batch X SiNx Mono/Multi PECVD In-line / Batch X ( : Better, O: Good, : Acceptable, X: Unacceptable) Table 1 Back-side dielectric material feature of PERC cell Aluminum oxide passivation layer The major advantages of AlOx include lowering silicon solar cell s back-side recombination and increase internal reflection. AlOx, like silicon nitride, can passivate the surface defects. It has negative charge that s completely opposite of silicon nitride. But because of this feature, using AlOx passivation layer at the back-side of P-type cell will not form inversion layer and lead to leakage. Instead, it will increase the majority carrier concentration of p-silicon and reduce the minority carrier concentration to lower cell s surface recombination rate. Figure 3 shows that the electric values of the open-circuit voltage (Voc) and the short-circuit current (Isc) are much better than those of conventional cell. 6

7 Figure 3 Diagram of aluminum oxide reducing recombination Figure 4 shows the internal quantum efficiency (IQE) and reflection of silicon solar cells. We can see from the IQE curve that the two different PERC cells have better spectral performance than conventional cells in the long wavelength region (1000~1200nm), demonstrating better back-side feature of PERC cells. Meanwhile, PERC cell also has larger internal reflection in the long wavelength region, which means it can reduce the chance of light penetration through the cell and increase the recycling rate of light more effectively. Among all, AlOx has better passivation effect than SiOx. As a result, the combination of AlOx and silicon nitride is the most commonly used back-side passivation condition for PERC cell mass production. (Source: Progress in Photovoltaics Research and Applications) Figure 4 IQE & reflection comparison between PERC & conventional cells 7

8 CH2 PERC Cell Production for Passivation Technology 2.1 Equipment of passivation layer The selection of dielectric back-side passivation material each has its pros and cons. However, only two materials can be put into mass production so far, which are AlOx and silicon oxynitride (SiONx). More than 90% of cell manufacturers chose AlOx, while less than 10% of them selected SiONx. It s because AlOx layer has better back-side passivation effect just like mentioned in the previous chapter. Table 2 in the next page summarizes the equipment manufacturers and features of PERC cell passivation mass production technology. The production process can be divided into plasmaenhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD), atomic layer deposition (ALD), and AlOx paste printing. The major PECVD equipment manufacturers include Meyer Burger (MB) and Centrotherm (CT) from Germany; Levitech and SoLayTec of Netherland, Ideal Energy of China, and NCD of Korea are the main ALD equipment makers; New E Materials of Taiwan is the only one that has AlOx paste printing patent and development technology. 8

9 PECVD ALD Aluminum Oxide (AlOx) Silicon Oxynitride (SiONx) Aluminum Oxide (AlOx) Aluminum Oxide (AlOx) Meyer Burger (MB) 理想能源 (Ideal Energy) Production Up-time 1. Easy production 2. Highest market share in PERC 3. two-steps deposition in one tool 1. Upgrade instead of new tools 2. Better film performance 3. Low TMA comsumption 4. Lower COO 5. two-steps deposition in one tool 1. Lower facility cost 2. Lower COO 3. No TMA gas 1. Lower lead price 2. Lower COO 3. No TMA gas 1. Better uniformity 2. Low TMA comsumption 1. Better uniformity 2. Low TMA comsumption 3. Lower Temp. process (< 200C) 1. Lower lead price 2. (In-line + Batch) combined type 3. Higher throughput 1. Better uniformity 2. Double-side deposition 3. Higher UP-time (PM once per 180- days) 1. Without new passivation tools 2. No TMA gas 3. Lower COO 1. TMA gas-hole issue 2. High TMA comsumption 3. Lower UP-time 4. Frequent PM or clean cycle 5. Higher COO 1. Lower throughput 2. Boat clean and pre-coated 3. Process verification 1. System unstable 2. Lower UP-time by daily PM Validation by practical production data 1. Paste stability 2. Additional printing and baking machine needed Table 2 Mass production technology and equipment of PERC passivation 9

10 2.2 Process for AlOx layer AlOx is the major passivation layer material for PERC cell mass production. Meanwhile, PECVD is the first technology to achieve AlOx mass production. By exposing wafer substrate under trimethyaluminum (TMA) gas precursor and using plasma to accelerate the reaction rate of the precursor, a chemical reaction will occur on the wafer surface to form a stable AlOx deposition film. (1) More than 90% of cell manufacturers use MB s equipment. MB s largest advantage is that in the vacuum pressure environment, a deposited dual passivation film of AlOx and silicon nitride can be completed using in-line type method on single equipment to achieve PERC mass production. Recently, MB developed a new three-in-one device, allowing the cell s front-side silicon nitride coating to be completed on the same equipment. The production procedures may be simplified to increase production and lower the production cost of PERC cells. (2) CT announced a bottleneck breakthrough of its AlOx production in The biggest design difference between MB and CT is that CT uses batch-type furnaces, leading to better film density and passivation effect. Also, batchtype furnaces can complete the deposited dual passivation film of AlOx and silicon nitride simultaneously, consume less TMA gas, and conduct better performance during the production up-time. There are many cell manufacturers that are going through evaluation. This will be potential mass production equipment for PERC cells. ALD is a thin-film deposition technique with atomic scale precision growth. It can provide excellent coverage uniformity and adhesion, leading to higher density for AlOx layer. The significant decline in deposition thickness will bring out equivalent passivation effect as PECVD. Therefore, TMA gas consumption can be reduced greatly, resulting in lower production cost and higher cell conversion efficiency. Some of the major ALD equipment manufacturers include (3) Levitech uses atmospheric pressure method. The advantage is that wafers can in-line transmit single-way through different chambers on the same plane surface to complete a fixed thickness of deposition. (4) SoLayTec also uses atmospheric pressure method. Wafers can be transmitted and deposited two-ways in the same chamber, so multiple wafers can be processed at the same time (depending on the number of modules). If manufacturers plan to increase their capacities, they can directly increase their module capacity. Since SoLayTec s ALD equipment has excellent 10

11 uniformity and utilization rate, its equipment has been mostly installed by cell makers. (5) Ideal Energy is the recent rising star. The company uses the whole new in-line/batch type method. The production method is claimed to be able to effectively reduce the crystal surface contamination and vacuum chamber maintenance frequency. The equipment itself has cost advantages. TMA gas consumption is also lower and allows modular expansion. In fact, quite a few cell manufacturers have installed this system in China. Overall, ALD technology can not only lower cell production cost, but also increase cell efficiency. This will be a technology that s full of potential in the future PERC cell market. New E Material of Taiwan has developed its own AlOx paste, which is similar to screen-printing compound. AlOx can be printed directly on the back-side of the cell and covered on the silicon nitride layer after going through high-temperature baking stereotype to achieve the same passivation effect. The largest advantage of AlOx paste is that cell makers will not have to pay for expensive equipment like PECVD or ALD as well as costly TMA gas. All they need is a screen printer and a high-temperature furnace. Consequently, AlOx paste requires very low PERC production cost, suitable for small-scale cell makers. Table 3 summarizes the equipment manufacturers and their production processes/features for PERC cell AlOx passivation layer mentioned above. AlOx Process PECVD ALD Supplier Throughput Two-steps Efficiency Market Up-time Cost (pcs./hr.) Deposition Performance Share Meyer Burger (MB) >70% Centrotherm (CT) 1200 >95% Levitech 3000 >80% X SoLayTec 3600 >90% X Ideal Energy 3600 >90% X Paste Printing New E Materials 1500 >95% X ( : Better, O: Good, : Acceptable, X: Unacceptable) Table 3 Features of PERC cell AlOx production process 11

12 2.3 Back-side opening technology After passivation layer is formed at the back-side of PERC cell, a passage is still needed to conduct the current conduction. That s why PERC cell s local BSF is different from conventional cell s BSF. PERC is based on the concept of local BSF, in which certain regions of back-side passivation layer will be removed to form channels. The two commonly-used removing methods are laser ablation and etching paste. Laser ablation has mostly been used for PERC cell equipment because laser is the easiest and most efficient way to drill a hole. Using high-energy beam to drill a hole and expose the surface of silicon crystal and match cell maker s designs like pattern, dot, dash lines, and straight lines. After going through aluminum paste printing and high-temperature sintering processes, PERC cell s back-side structure is completed. Currently, there are many laser equipment manufacturers that can choose from. Table 4 below is a summary. German suppliers, such as INNOLAS, Manz, and 3D-Micromac had most of the market shares in the olden days. But due to lower laser equipment price and average threshold for opening technology, TSEMC of Taiwan and DR Laser of China have become the new rising stars, dividing total market shares. DR Laser, particularly, has more than 80% of the market share in China, becoming a new leader in back-side laser ablation technology. Supplier Country Shipment Throughput Quantity (pcs./hr.) Up-time Cost Market Share INNOLAS Germany >95% Manz Germany >90% 3D-Micromac Germany >95% TSEMC ( 友晁能源 ) DR Laser ( 武漢帝爾 ) Taiwan >95% China > >95% ( : Better, O: Good, : Less) Table 4 Equipment of PERC back-side laser ablation technology 12

13 CH3 PERC Cell Capacity Status and Market Share 3.1 PV demand Total global solar demand reached 69.4GW in Although the total demand will keep increasing in 2017, the growth range will be lowered, according to EnergyTrend s statistics. Demand is estimated to reach 70.3GW, up 1.1% only. China, Japan, and the US, the top three solar markets, may witness declining growth this year, while India and the emerging markets will see stronger growth momentum. India, particularly, may change places with Japan and move up to No.3. Yet, the rise in the emerging markets still can t compensate for the significant decline in the major markets. Demand growth will be the weakest this year due to the oversupply and lower demand in the major markets. Figure 5 Global PV demand of

14 3.2 Solar cell and PERC cell capacities Expansion continues in the solar industry. Total cell capacity will reach 115GW in 2017, and 22% of which will be PERC cells, reaching 25GW, an annual growth rate of more than 70% as showing in figure 6. The growth in the overall cell capacity has substantially slowed down, but PERC cell capacity has rapidly increased year by year. It s projected that global PERC cell capacity will double to 60GW by 2020, representing more than 40% of total cell production. Unit : GW 140 Non-PERC Capacity PERC Capacity (E) 2018(F) 2019(F) 2020(F) 2021(F) Figure PERC cell capacity trend According to the statistical data, the amount of cumulative PERC installation has reached 15GW in But due to the postponement of equipment delivery, unstable mass production, and rapidly decreasing demand in 3Q16, the actual PERC cell production only reached 4.5GW in 2016, leading to a large gap between the actual production and capacity scale. Therefore, some PERC production will be postponed to In 1H17, the PERC cell market will not only witness the increasing capacity, but also overcome previous production obstacles and may reach more than 8GW as showing in figure 7. Solar cell production may reach 25GW in 2020, and 27% of which will be PERC cells. The ITRPV 7 th Edition 2016 report forecasted a 30% share for PERC cells, also proving that everyone is highly positive about the potential of PERC cells. 14

15 Unit : GW PERC Capacity PERC Production (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Figure 7 PERC cell capacity & production trend The ratio of mono-si cell production has increased year by year starting from It s estimated that the overall mono-si cell demand ratio will rise significantly to 32% in 2017 as showing in figure 8. The significant increase in mono-si cell demand is because of the balanced supply/demand relationship of the mono-si wafer market, lower production cost, better performance of mono-si PERC cells, and immature black silicon technology. Multi Crystalline Mono Crystalline Thin Film % 18% 6% % 24% 5% 2017(F) 63% 32% 5% GW Figure 8 Multi & mono-si cell production ratio in

16 3.3 PERC cell capacity status Mono & multi-si cells Global mono-si PERC cell capacity is expected to reach 19.8GW in 2017, with the production reaching 6GW. Both the capacity and production of mono-si PERC cells represented more than 75%. On the contrary, multi-si PERC cell production only reached 2GW as showing in figure 9. We can see that PERC technology still relies heavily on the characteristics of high-efficiency cells like mono-si cells in order to enhance cell efficiency. Meanwhile, multi-si PERC cell s development will be squeezed by standard mono-si cells, at an inferior position. Unless multi-si cell cost can be lowered further, the production value of mono-si PERC cells will be much higher than multi-si cells. On the other hand, thanks to the high C/P ratio of PERC products and stimulation of the Top Runner Program, the overall mono-si share has reflected an uptrend over the past few years. About 80% will be applying for mono-si products because of the threshold limitation of cell or module efficiency in the 5.5GW Top Runner Program in China this year. In addition to that, the Top Runner Program sponsored by specific provinces, the PV Poverty Alleviation Project, and distributed generation systems all prefer high-efficiency or high-wattage products, leading to continuous strong demand in the mono-si PERC market. Unit : GW Production Capacity Production Capacity Multi PERC Mono PERC Figure 9 Multi & mono-si PERC cell capacity & production in

17 3.3.2 AlOx passivation production process If using production equipment to differentiate the coating film production technology of AlOx, PECVD is the most common method for current cell makers. The market share of PECVD will still exceed 90% in 2017 as showing in figure 10. PECVD is also the leader of PERC mass production, in which, MB MAiA is often used by the industry for mass production. Although the ALD technology is more mature, with the market share rising continuously, only 8% of manufacturers chose to use it in their production. Figure 10 AlOx processes of PERC cell capacity in Regional PERC cell capacity development Global PERC cell capacity is 25.4GW in If conducting a comparison according to regions or countries, China s PERC cell capacity ranked first, represented 51% in the world. And then, it s Korea (22%), Taiwan (17%), Europe and the US (6%), and other regions in Asia (4%). Please refer to figure 11. The PERC cell production in China and Taiwan represented 70% in the world. Aside from the domestic markets, China has been conducting aggressive strategy deployment on its third- 17

18 party country capacities. If these capacities can be released later on, these will be able to fulfill the demand in the US and Europe that are going through trade barriers, minimizing the economic loss. Meanwhile, since mono-si PERC cell is highly popular in the US and Japanese markets, cell makers will also focus on PERC production and export in third-party countries. The overall quality of Taiwan s PERC cells is still better than the rest of the world. Even though Taiwan no longer has its advantages in PERC capacity building, Taiwan still has comparative advantages in cell efficiency and production yield rate. However, this could change this year as well due to the competition from Hanwha Q cells and the rise of Chinese cell makers. Figure 11 Regional PERC cell capacity in Global major PERC cell makers Figure 12 listed out cell makers with the top PERC cell shipment in The leading company with the largest PERC cell production is Hanwha Q-cells of Korea. But the amount of production does not entirely have a proportional relationship with each company s PERC capacity scale. The key point is the timing when companies invested in PERC technology development. For example, Q-cells that was acquired by Hanwha and SolarWorld are both German cell makers and are the first 18

19 companies to start researching into PERC technology and production. Following the acquisition, Hanwha Q-cells has even become the company with the largest PERC cell capacity in the world. Up until late-2016, Hanwha Q-cells PERC cell capacity has reached more than 2.5GW; Taiwanese cell makers, like Sino-American Silicon (SAS), Neo Solar Power (NSP), and Gintech, have also invested in PERC development in the early stage. Therefore, they played very important roles in the 2016 production and shipped out the most PERC cells despite their small capacity scale; JA Solar was the Chinese company with the largest PERC cell capacity last year, but its actual production was only 20% of the capacity. This shows that JA Solar s PERC cell production may still be in expansion phase or is not running smoothly yet. Figure 12 Production ratio of major PERC cell makers in

20 CH4 PERC Cell Cell Capacity Development 4.1 Trend of mono & multi-si product This chapter will discuss the development trend of PERC cell capacity expansion from three point of view, including multi & mono-si products, AlOx deposition technology, and development scale in different countries. The production ratio of mono-si cells increases year by year and will reach a new high in One of the major drivers of the rapid mono-si growth is that PERC cell has become a new mainstream product and mono-si PERC cell can come up with higher conversion efficiency (>21.0%) and higher-wattage modules (>295W). We can see from figure 13 that since the industry is optimistic about mono-si PERC cell demand, the PERC capacity has increased 10GW this year. The growth of mono-si PERC cells will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years. Most of the newly-added capacities will be used in mono-si cells in the future as well. Unit : GW 80 Mono PERC Multi PERC (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Figure 13 Capacity development of mono and multi-si PERC cells 20

21 4.2 Trend of AlOx passivation technology AlOx has become the best material choice for PERC cell s back-side passivation layer, in which 90% of the cell makers use PECVD to conduct AlOx coating film production. MB is the most important PECVD equipment supplier. More than 95% of PECVD equipment is supplied by MB, meanwhile the company sees large amount of orders lining up till late Yet, PECVD faces quite a few PERC cell production problems, like poor up-time performance, cell appearance/yield rate issues, large consumption of TMA gas, high production cost and long delivery time. In addition to that, because ALD technology is more mature and ALD can increase efficiency, require lower TMA gas consumption, and have potential in future N-type cell applications, EnergyTrend believes that the market share of ALD deposition technology may increase year after year and may reach 20% by 2021 as showing in figure 14. As for other technologies, no other competitive methods have been found yet. Besides, the market share of the rest of the technologies only reached less than 1%. So PERC back-side passivation layer production will still focus on PECVD and ALD. Unit : GW PECVD ALD Others (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Figure 14 AlOx technology development of PERC cell 21

22 4.3 Trend of regional PERC cell development Judging from the current solar industry chain, cell production still focuses on Asia. China/Taiwan and Southeast Asia together represent 80% of the total production in the world. Figure 15 is a forecast of the regional PERC cell capacity development. China s PERC cell capacity still ranked first, with the largest expansion range. Chinese PERC cell capacity will reach 47.5GW by 2021, accounting for 60% of the total production. Meanwhile, Taiwan expands stably, representing about 20%. SAS, NSP, Gintech, and Solartech are the Taiwanese cell makers with PERC cell capacities, while Hanwha Q-cells is the major Korean cell maker with PERC capacity. The PERC capacity for Taiwan and Korea ranked second and third, respectively. PERC capacities only account for a small percentage in other countries. But India has put a lot of effort in the solar cell area lately; therefore we need to pay extra attention to the future Indian cell market. Unit : GW China Taiwan Korea Rest of Asia EU & US (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Figure 15 Regional PERC cell capacity development 22

23 CH5 PERC Cell Cell and Module Technology Roadmap 5.1 Trend of cell conversion efficiency Figure 16 shows the efficiency performances for major silicon solar cells. In 2017, conventional multi & mono-si cell will reach the efficiency level of 18.6% and 20.1%, respectively. The average efficiency of multi & mono-si PERC cell can reach more than 19.3% and 21.2%, respectively. Most cell manufacturers have firstly chosen to expand their mono-si PERC capacities because mono-si PERC cell s high C/P ratio can fulfill high-end demand. Mono-Si PERC cell is expected to reach the efficiency level of 21.5% in 2018 and further reach 22% by Multi-Si cell, at this point, will focus on if it can collocate with the black silicon technology to implement the diamond wire slicing and then collocating with other process technologies for improvement. Multi-Si PERC cell will have better production advantage if it can achieve the efficiency level of %. The next generation of N-type cells will still focus on IBC and HJT, with the current conversion efficiency reaching 24.3% and 22.3%, respectively. Although N-type cell itself has many advantages such as high efficiency, potential to increase efficiency, high carrier lifetime, and no light-induced decay (LID) like P-type cells, N-type cell is not highly accepted in the market at this stage due to its high equipment investment, technology threshold, and mass production threshold for PERC cells. Only a few companies are willing to invest in it, therefore N-type cell witnessed slower-thanexpected development. Some experts suggested the other two types of N-type PERC cells in the short-run: passivated emitter rear totally diffused cell (n-pert) and passivated emitter rear locally diffused cell (n-perl). Even though they are N-type cells, they have similar design concept as PERC cells. These substrates will have to be changed to N-type wafers while adding some more production processes and equipment to complete an upgraded solar cell production line. Perhaps these will become one of the choices for the next generation solar cells. 23

24 Cell Type (Cell Efficincy %) (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) IBC HJT PERC Mono Conventional Mono PERC Multi Conventional Multi Unit : % 27.0 IBC HJT PERC Mono Conventional Mono PERC Multi Conventional Multi (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Figure 16 Efficiency trend of different silicon cells 24

25 5.2 Trend of module power output According to the six types of silicon solar cells mentioned in the previous article 5.1, the power output of these 60-cell modules was tested. Conventional multi and mono-si mainstream module wattage is expected to reach 270W and 285W, respectively, this year. The multi and mono-si PERC modules will each reach 275W and 295W, in which mono-si PERC module will increase to 295/300W this year. PERC technology has allowed P-type modules to witness power output of more than 300W. It s not just a segmentation of high wattage, but also a very suitable choice for the DG or roof-top markets. Meanwhile, the two kinds of N-type cells IBC and HJT both have high power output, surpassing 335W and 320W, respectively, as showing in figure 17. The continued pursuit of efficiency and lower cost will be something that never changes in the solar industry. As the market requires higher product efficiency and quality, 300W modules will be the most important indicator from 2017 to This will slowly turn PERC technology into an essential tool, enhancing the overall industry development. Although the market is not that interested in N-type cells at this moment due to the high power generation cost, N-type cells will be the focus of high-efficiency technology in the future. If the limitation for solar installation space increases while in need of 340W (or above) modules, N-type cells will be the indispensable condition. In addition, n-pert or HJT cells allow double-sided power generation. Therefore, if these cells work with dual-glass modules, it will bring end-users higher power output, providing more stable reliability. 25

26 Cell Type (Module Output, W) (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) IBC HJT PERC Mono Conventional Mono PERC Multi Conventional Multi IBC HJT PERC Mono Unit : W Conventional Mono PERC Multi Conventional Multi (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Figure 17 Power output trend of different solar cells (by 60-cell modules) 26

27 5.3 Product of different PERC cells One of the advantages of PERC technology is that it can be applied in both mono and multi-si cells. In order to prevent mono-si PERC products from being ahead of the game, multi-si wafer makers have put a lot of effort in promoting black silicon technology recently, hoping to widen the market acceptance for multi-si PERC products. Therefore, EnergyTrend conducted a summary analysis on several mainstream conventional and PERC cells. We calculated the profits of cells/modules from the latest selling prices and the result is as table 5 below. Since mono-si PERC cell has the absolute price advantage, its selling price is US$ 0.05/W higher than other products, with the gross margin reaching 19%. If multi-si PERC cell successfully goes with the black silicon technology, it can also get a high gross margin rate of 16%. Yet, the gross margin will not exceed 8% for other types of cells. For modules, the average gross margin is 8-14%. Multi Multi Mono Multi Multi Multi BS Mono Wafer Types PERC PERC+BS PERC Std. Big wafer Big wafer Big wafer Big wafer M2 M2 Wafer Area ( CM2 ) Cell Efficiency ( % ) Cell Power Output(W/pc) CTM Loss (%) cell Module Power Output(W) Wafer Price($/pc) Cell Cost($/W) Cell Price($/W) Gross Margin of Cell ( % ) (0.5) Module Cost($/W) Module Price($/W) Gross Margin of Module ( % ) BS = Black Silicon BS = Black Silicon Table 5 Cost/margin comparison of different cells (updated by Jan. 25, 2017) 27

28 5.4 Cost and price of multi & mono-si PERC Table 6 shows the price forecast for multi-si PERC cells in the next five years. Thanks to the significant decline in the price of multi-si wafers using diamond wire slicing, multi-si PERC cell can still maintain a profit margin of 5-10%, much better than that of standard multi-si cells. However, since the overall cell prices are expected to drop year by year and downstream module makers could still maintain a profit margin of 10%, cell-end profit has been compressed, leading to lower profit for multi-si PERC cells as well. Table 7 shows the price forecast for mono-si PERC cells in the next five years. We can see from the table that the gross margin of mono-si PERC cells has surpassed 20% in the past two years, outperforming other cell products. But due to the lower cell prices year after year and substantial increase in PERC capacity, mono-si PERC cells or modules will be sold at lower prices owing to the oversupply. Mono-Si PERC cell s profit may drop to 15%, while module could still maintain a gross margin of 11-15%. Therefore, for the overall industry chain, upstream wafer or downstream module production can still manage to get a certain level of profit, yet midstream cells, especially Taiwanese cell makers, appeared to be very vulnerable under the attack of both upstream/downstream sectors. Cell prices will be sacrificed in Taiwan since Taiwan doesn t have its own export along with the large fluctuation in the market. Even high-efficiency PERC cell has to worry about getting less and less profit 28

29 Multi PERC (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Wafer Area ( CM2 ) Cell Efficiency ( % ) Cell Power Output(W/pc) CTM Loss (%) cell Module Power Output(W) Wafer Price($/pc) Cell Cost($/W) Cell Price($/W) Gross Margin of Cell ( % ) Module Cost($/W) Module Price($/W) Gross Margin of Module ( % ) Table 6 Cost and profit forecast for multi-si PERC cells Mono PERC (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Wafer Area (CM2) Cell Efficiency ( % ) Cell Power Output (W/pc) CTM Loss ( % ) cell Module Power Output(W) Wafer Price($/pc) Cell Cost($/W) Cell Price($/W) Gross Margin of Cell ( % ) Module Cost($/W) Module Price($/W) Gross Margin of Module ( % ) Table 7 Cost and profit forecast for mono-si PERC cells 29

30 5.5 Other applications Double printing technology In order to increase efficiency, cell makers tried to apply conventional cell technology to PERC cells. The technologies that have higher relevance with silver paste include double printing (DP) and selective emitter (SE). Many Chinese cell makers use the DP method to increase the height of the finger print, which in turn increases the Isc current of the cell. This method can lead to an enhanced efficiency of %. Its consumption of positive silver paste is very close to that of screen-printing. Consequently, DP s product cost problem has been improved. Yet, due to the lower yield rate caused by pinpoint precision and screen quality, only a few manufacturers have applied DP to PERC cells. It s estimated that only 400MW of PERC capacity will use the DP method in 2017 and may not grow much in the future as showing in figure 18. Recently, screen manufacturers have been promoting high open ratio screen and fine-line screen, claiming that using screen-printing can come up with thinner fingers. If it turns out successful, less people will be willing to use DP method for production. Unit : GW SP DP (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Figure 18 Screen-printing & DP method production trend of PERC cells 30

31 5.5.2 Selective emitter technology SE technology can be divided into etching back and laser doping. Etching back requires a wax injet and cleaning equipment. Schmid is the major supplier for etching back. Manz of Germany and TSEMC of Taiwan are the main suppliers for laser doping. Laser doping requires lower cost and simpler production processes, but has weaker surface control/damage. The concept of the SE method is to form a high concentration of impurity diffusion under the front electrode to reduce the sheet resistance, which can improve the resistance problems occurred following the sintering process of emitter and silver paste. Since SE is an enhancement of silicon cell s front-side emitter which works well with PERC cell s back-side passivation technology, therefore having SE applied to PERC cells will yield higher value as showing in figure 19. It s estimated that 1.8GW of PERC capacity will use the SE method in 2017, representing 22%. Taiwanese cell makers, like Sunrise, NSP, and Gintech, have implemented the SE technology. Trina Solar and Hanwha Q Cells have also adopted the SE method. As a result, more manufacturers are likely to apply SE to PERC in the future, representing 20-25% of the total production. Unit : GW HE SE (E) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) Figure 19 Selective emitter production trend of PERC cells 31

32 CH6 PERC Cell Top-10 Chinese PERC Cell Makers 6.1 Capability of PERC production Table 8 summarizes the PERC cell capacity condition for the top-ten cell makers in China. In terms of PERC capacity scale, Hanwha Q-cells ranked first, with its capacity surpassing 3GW (Hanwha should be a Korean enterprise, but it has factories in China). From 2016, Hanwha Q Cells started to focus on setting up mono-si PERC production lines. JA, Jinko, Lerri, and Trina each has MW of PERC capacity, these are the major PERC cell suppliers in China. EnergyTrend believes that Eging, Canadian Solar, Suntech, Tongwei, and GCL-Si are the cell manufacturers with great PERC capacity expansion potential. In the table below, we ve also provided the information related to each cell maker s PERC mass production process and the corresponding equipment manufacturers, including back-side passivation equipment, laser opening equipment, LID illuminated furnace, and process development. No. Companies 2016 Cell Capacity (MW) 2016 PERC Capacity (MW) Passivation Tools Laser Ablation Tools LID Furnace Tools (for Mono PERC) New Process Integration Next Plan 1 Hanwha Q Cells MB 3D-Micromac (Hanwha-self Solution) p-mono PERC 2 JA MB SoLayTec DR Laser Despatch DP p-mono PERC 3 Jinko MB Folungwin DR & TSEMC SoLayTec ( 科隆威 ) multi to mono PERC 4 Lerri MB DR Laser Despatch DP p-mono PERC plus 5 Trina MB DR Laser Folungwin DP SE n-ibc MB High open 6 Eging SoLayTec DR Laser Folungwin Ideal ratio screen 7 CSI MB DR Laser DP 8 Suntech MB DR Laser 9 Tongwei MB DR Laser Folungwin DP High open ratio n-pert screen 10 GCL-Si MB DR Laser n-pert Table 8 PERC cell capacity/production condition of top-10 Chinese cell makers 32

33 6.2 Expansion plan of PERC capacity Table 9 listed out the PERC capacity forecast for the top-ten Chinese cell makers from 2017 to We can see from the table that the capacity continues to increase every year. In 2017, the capacity scale for the top-ten cell makers will reach 14GW (including third-party country capacity). By 2021, the total PERC capacity is expected to reach 40GW for the top-10 cell makers, representing half of the total PERC cell production in the world. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for these cell makers PERC capacities will all exceed 25%. This shows PERC cell s high market demand and also shows industrial concentration. In other words, these leading manufacturers seek continuous improvement in product quality (technology) or cost/price (capacity) to be at the leading position. Under the circumstances where the oversupply situation remains, industrial concentration will bring a lot of pressure to second/third-tier cell makers. As a result, the companies that are unwilling to put in more investment or those with unique technology or product may begin to consider merging or leaving the market. No. Companies / Capacity (MW) (F) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) 2021 (F) 1 Hanwha Q Cells JA Jinko Lerri Trina Eging CSI Suntech Tongwei GCL-Si Table 9 PERC capacity expansion forecast for top-10 Chinese cell makers 33

34 CH7 PERC Cell Conclusion Among all of the high-efficiency solar cell technologies, PERC technology is the relatively easy way. By adding two to three more production processes onto the conventional cell production lines, cell s back-side passivation layer and local passivation layer opening can be formed. Its corresponding process condition and mass production equipment have reached the mature stage. Along with its high C/P ratio advantage, the next three to five years will be the peak season for PERC cells, accounting for more than 30% in the world by Two of the important drivers of PERC cell growth are increasing demand for high-efficiency cells/high-wattage modules and the Top Runner Program launched by the Chinese government. That s why cell makers continue to improve their technologies and qualities. Mono-Si PERC cell s LID issue that had the most criticism could be solved by regeneration. In addition, PERC cell can increase efficiency and maintain a price difference of more than US$ 5 cents for the selling price; therefore more manufacturers have decided to use it for their production, leading to higher production ratio. Mono-Si PERC cell production may surpass 80% in 2017, resulting in short supply for mono-si wafers. The biggest threat to PERC cells may come from high-end N-type cells. But many factors will put N-type cell at a disadvantageous position: record high PERC cell efficiency, in control of the LID issue, lower PV prices, and weak demand for high-priced cells. Furthermore, there are only a few equipment suppliers for N-type cells, and thus the investment for equipment is not low enough for cell makers to accept, leading to a slow development growth for N-type cells. Challenged by PERC cells, N-type cell makers may still focus on research/ development and pilot run in the short term, with the mass production timing remaining unclear. To conclude all of the above, EnergyTrend forecasts a polarized phenomenon in the solar market in 2017: high-efficiency and low-priced products. The mainstream power output of 60-cell high-efficiency modules will increase from 290W currently to more than 295W/300W (as cell efficiency >21.0% and CTM loss <3%). These products will be able to satisfy the demand for DG and roof-top systems that are geared up for this year. In order to reach this module wattage, using mono-si PERC is the most economical and feasible way. Yet, since cell manufacturers have 34