Critical Evaluation of Emission Inventories Developed in Air Quality Management Planning and Proposed National Interventions

Transcription

1 Critical Evaluation of Emission Inventories Developed in Air Quality Management Planning and Proposed National Interventions Session th Annual Air Quality Governance Lekgotla Mitta Seperepere Convention Centre, Kimberly, Northern Cape P. Gwaze and N. Phala

2 Presentation Outline Introduction - Emission Inventory What is the Status of Emission Inventory Estimation in SA? National PA, Provincial, Districts/Metros estimations of SO x, NO x, PM 10, PM 2.5, CO. How are these inventories estimated? What are the challenges with our current inventories? How do we achieve credible emission estimations for better planning? How do we get this framework in place? Way forward

3 Emissions Inventory - Definition Means an accounting of the amount of pollutants discharged into the atmosphere and it contains the total emissions for one or more specific greenhouse gases and air pollutants originating from all sources in a certain geographical area and within a specified time span

4 Emission Estimation and Reporting Legal Framework Management of industrial activities through the AEL for specific listed activities, regulated by stipulating permissible emission levels of significant pollutants. Targeted intervention strategies are prescribed by provincial and municipal spheres of government through AQMP and other government policies/strategies Reporting of emissions by the regulated sectors (industries, mine and quarries) to the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory System (NAEIS)

5 Major sources of emissions in South Africa Industrial activities (SO x, NO x, PM, CO) Mining activities (PM) Biomass burning (SO x, NO x, PM, CO) Transportation, especially road transport (SO x, NO x, PM, CO) Residential fuel burning (wood, coal, paraffin) (SO x, NO x, PM, CO) Biogenic (VOCs, NO x ) Lightning (NO x,) Waste (SO 2, NO x, PM, CO and HAPs) Agricultural activities (NH 3, PM)

6 Sources of Air Pollution

7 Emission Inventory Estimation NAEIS Emission Calculation Basis: NAEIS Emission Factor (default) Continuous Emission Monitoring (CEM) Landfill Model Mass Balance Predictive Emission Modelling (PEM) Stack Testing Tank Model Facility Emission Factor IPCC EF (default for GHG in NAEIS) Others methodologies Non-industrial/process emission inventory estimations are based on this principle: Emissions = Activity Data x Emission Factor x (1-Efficiency Coefficient)

8 Emission Inventory Objectives AQ planning inform baseline and strategy development, measure efficacy implementation Supporting AQ research and development Emission Inventory Support South Africa positions in global/regional negotiations Supporting air quality forecasting Informing national imperatives e.g., NDP, IRP and national emission reduction plans

9 What is the Status of Emission Inventory Estimations in SA? 1. National 2. Provincial 3. Districts/Metro

10 Emission Inventories Compiled at DEA National - State of Air Report ( ) NAEIS for industrial activities (S21, S23) and mining Top-down emission estimates for Transportation Residential fuel use Based on global emission estimations for Biomass burning Biogenic Lightning Excluded Waste Agricultural activities State of Air Report, Draft National Emission Profile

11 Priority Areas AQMP Emission Inventories Emission Inventory VTAPA, HPA and WBPA Industrial activities Biomass burning Transportation Residential fuel burning Mining activities Waste Missing Sectors Biogenic, Lightning Agricultural activities (NH 3, PM)

12 Provincial and Priority Area Emission Inventories (based on AQMPs on SAAQIS)

13 District/Metropolitan AQMP Development (based on AQMPs on SAAQIS)

14 How are these inventories estimated?

15 Current Estimation of EI in AQMPs Industrial and Mining Based on compliance monitoring reports, activity data from AELs and AP42 EFs, and MES calculations to emission rates New AQMPs starting to use NAEIS EI reports Biomass Burning Different satellite products, land use data and different EFs Different estimation approaches Transport A range of methods, activity data and EFs Residential Fuel Burning Different Community Surveys, StatsSA products, NOVA, FRIGDE Different EFs

16 What are the challenges with our current Emission Inventories?

17 Challenges with our current Emission Inventories - Technical EI are estimated using a range of estimation methodologies and quantifying different pollutants e.g., biomass burning Use of obsolete activity data in some plans e.g., 2017 EI based on FRIDGE 2004 activity data, obsolete StatSA Community Survey Use of a range of emission factors for the same sectors Varying temporal and spatial scales and therefore lack uniformity, consistency, and comparability across jurisdictions Depending on the planning requirements, inventories focus on different key sectors and contain different levels of completeness EI may be inaccurate as there are no quality assurance system in place to review these inventories in a consistent manner. In most plans, there is no transparency on how the emissions have been quantified.

18 Challenges with our current Emission Inventories - Governance Nearly ALL government emission inventories are compiled by external experts (service providers) as there is no capacity across spheres of government to undertake such tasks Once EI are compiled, there is no centralised repository of cumulating inventories and all activity, emission factors, methodologies Due to the decentralised nature of EI, government is spending considerable financial resources in emission estimations Government is continuously re-investing resources in regenerating data/information whenever plans/policies/strategies are under review No clear ability for government to review strategies due to lack of continuity in EI across plans

19 How do we achieve credible emission estimations for better planning?

20 National Emission Inventory Framework SAAELIP Continuous improvement of industrial emissions management in: NAEIS reporting requirements as well as QA/QC systems Quality of AELs issued, AEL-NAEIS alignment Quality of report by industries through improved auditing Improving completeness of emission inventory reports e.g., reporting of all significant emissions such as fugitive emissions Making use of compliance monitoring feedback Improving the reporting of Section 23 and mining/quarry facilities Adopting NAEIS emission inventory for industrial sectors in AQMP development across all spheres of government

21 Auditing of NAEIS Reports (25 September)

22 National Emission Inventories Framework Non-Industrial Sectors For non-industrial emissions, need to develop a national Non-Industrial Emission Inventory Framework Proposing we adopted IPCC Emission Estimation Guidelines for South Africa so that we can define: Key emission sectors of interest to SA and for specific regions Define clear emission estimation methodologies acceptable for all sectors as well as activity data Put in place country specific emission factors Develop QA/QC checking, documentation and archiving systems for activity data as well as emission estimation Framework must ensure we develop Transparent, Consistent, Comparable, Complete and Accurate national emission inventories

23 QC Checking, Documentation and Archiving National Inventory for strategy/policies/ plans Report national inventory Check/Review inventory through QA Start new national emission estimates, based on experience from previous inventories Make necessary revisions (if any) Identify key categories Identifying EI experts Select methods of emission estimations while considering data collection and time series (activity data, emission factors) IPCC Emission Inventory Estimation Program Collecting activity data from data holders QC Checking, Documentation and Archiving QC Checking, Documentation and Archiving Conduct key category analyses Conducting QA/QC Collect data and estimate emission/removals while ensuring adequate QA/QC and time series consistency QC Checking, Documentation and Archiving Conduct uncertainty analyses. Evaluate input data and assess overall inventory QC Checking, Documentation and Archiving Compile national inventory considering time series, consistency and QA/QC QC Checking, Documentation and Archiving National Emission Inventory

24 National Emission Inventory Framework Governance Establish a ICT infrastructure required to support emissions inventory systems Define a governance structure for the management of nonindustrial emission inventory and how to sustain/continuously improve the inventories. Adopted the national non-industrial inventory for strategy/policies/aqmp development across all spheres of government as the baseline

25 How do we get this framework in place?

26 DEA-CSIR Proposed Project: Non-industrial EI DEA-CSIR are working to establish a long-term partnership The partnership will include the: Development of a National Emission Inventory Framework (as prescribed above) Defining detailed processes/methodologies and timeframes on how sector specific emission inventories will be developed Where long term agreements are necessary for the sustainability of the national inventory, agreements (legal or otherwise) will be instituted between DEA and such data holders/owners Stakeholder/experts participations in the form of workshops or dedicated experts panel meetings Establishment of sustainable national emission inventories for nonindustrial sectors (activity data, EFs, QC systems etc.)

27 National EI Framework: Governance DEA WGII Project Steering Committee (DEA, CSIR, etc.)

28 Roles and Responsibilities DEA Project Manager Provide overall strategic vision in order to meet the project objectives Engage with WGII on project development to ensure that project products are transferred for implementation Provide system infrastructure that will ensure that products developed are available to users, and archived for future generations Project Steering Committee Undertake project to meet DEA objectives and report to the DEA Ensure that necessary products developed are of scientifically sound and credible quality Develop standard guidelines and SOPs on emission estimations

29 DEA Experts Panel Project Steering Committee (DEA, CSIR, etc.) Academia SAWS CSIR Gov. Depts. StatsSA SAEON SANSA DEA-Waste SAWS Research Scientists AQ Experts Dept. of Transport IT Experts Energy Other Support Sectors of CSIR Agriculture Etc.

30 Roles and Responsibilities Expert Panel Provide overall technical expert advisory services in order to meet the project objectives Provide technical review/oversight on the products developed Other Stakeholders Depending on the sectors, SOE, government departments will be invited to participate in the PSC Providing proxy data as required Providing expert support

31 Way Forward DEA finalising the Terms of Reference for the DEA-CSIR project Once approved, CSIR will be contracted to ensure a successful development of non-industrial emission inventory products Collaborations with other institutes will be sought to DEA will ensure that this project builds the necessary NATIONAL CAPACITY Continuous feedback on project progress will be made to authorities

32 Thank You!